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Measurement error modeling is a statistical approach to the estimation of unknown model parameters which takes into account the measurement errors in all of the data. Approaches which ignore the measurement errors in so-called independent variables may yield inferior estimates of unknown model...
components are: cavity decoupling, verification effectiveness, probability of missed violation, probability of false accusation … uncertainty inherent in the treaty verification process. It helps the user gain insights into the interactions among monitoring … makers with rational, defensible analyses, which can be used as input when making important treaty and verification decisions …
are: Desired probabilities of detecting a violation and of falsely accusing WTO; Trade-off between improved verification …
extreme strategic sinificance, there remains the task of balancing the probability of false alarm and its consequences against … the probability of undetected loss and its consequences. The application of other than classical hypothesis testing …
1991 was continued rapid growth for the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) as it broadened its interdisciplinary research into the organization, evolution and operation of complex systems and sought deeply the principles underlying their dynamic behavior. Research on complex systems--the focus of work at...
model verification and validation, uncertainty quantification, and decision making. We present a framework that extends the … decision makers. This report provides an assessment of our thinking on ASC Verification and Validation, and argues for further …
A previous report explored and discussed statistical methods and procedures that may be applied to validate the survivability of a complex system of systems that cannot be tested as an entity. It described a methodology where Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop the system survivability...
As part of a study aimed at estimating suburban highway needs for year 2005, models were developed for forecasting daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) for urban areas and its distribution by highway functional class, urban location, and urban area size. A regression model combining both time...
characterization of both population and individual risk. Finally, a simple form of discrete probability calculus is proposed as an …
Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the...