. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important … information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting … forecasting model at all horizons is the one proposed by Gerlach (2004) that includes the inflation gap, the difference between …

inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to … provide a unified framework for analysing and comparing global inflation dynamics across the major world economic areas … conducts an empirical assessment of how euro area price inflation responds to various exogenous shocks. This includes …

the inflation rate, the deviation in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the deviation in money supply, the deviation in … weight to the deviation in unemployment rate, and moderate weights are assigned to the deviation in the inflation rate, the …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly …We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger … strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … ; out-of-sample forecasting ; Granger causality ; monetary aggregates ; inflation ; monetary policy ; European Central Bank. …We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger …

and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of … monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …

Firmly-anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role in the successful conduct of … monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in survey expectations, the … term structure of interest rates, and realized inflation rates. My application combines a variety of data sources at the …

appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I focus its on the impact on output, unemployment, and inflation. I use the synthetic … connected to disturbances created by changes in excise taxes. The effect of the commitment on inflation is positive but not …

Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.” The paper describes a formula for which these conditions … variability of forward long-term inflation. Its U.S. inflation forecasts are comparable to recognized leaders in accuracy with … potential applicability to international economies as well.Inflation Elasticity, the responsiveness of inflation to monetary …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It … is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive … terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges Bank's forecasts are …