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--run effect on inflation as well as other nominal variables cointegrating with inflation. These shocks are found to generate large …
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Cet article vise à évaluer la croissance potentielle en France, en Allemagne et en zone euro au cours de la période postérieure à la crise de crédit de 2007-2008 jusqu’à l’horizon de prévision 2012. Une telle évaluation joue en effet un rôle central dans celle du déficit...
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In this paper, we estimate and analyse a set of equations of French inflation for forecasting purpose at the horizon of … exogeneous variables outside the sampling period: given the history at time t, one forecasts the value of inflation at time t …
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the interaction between partial indexation and trend inflation. We show that using a hybrid version of the Phillips curve … partly decreases the risks of overestimate due to the omission of trend inflation. We also provide new evidence on the fit of …) forgetting trend inflation induces overestimating by approximately 3-4 percent of the probability to not change the price, for …
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