-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast horizon for standard macroeconomic variables (real GDP, inflation, the … of inflation, real GDP and the real exchange rate, while for interest rates forecasts of univariate benchmark models …

across the sample. Evidence in favour of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on the output and inflation is found from … in the last part of the 1990s and, especially, for the CPI inflation in the 2000s. The most outstanding result is that … the oil price movements could explain at least some of the recent inflation, the main difference between these outcomes …

equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian … approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are cornerstones determining equilibrium yields across maturities and …

and a smooth estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap …