Econometric models are a widely used and powerful tool in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Admittedly, their acceptance by the scientific community has had some hard times during the seventies and eighties: a general decline in the reputation of macroeconomics, the Lucas critique, and...

This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...

Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...

Das Themenspektrum der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung ist breit gefächert. Nicht nur die Wirtschaftstheorie, sondern auch die Ökonometrie und Wirtschaftsstatistik spielen eine zentrale Rolle. Die Festschrift für Professor Ullrich Heilemann versammelt dazu 30 Fachaufsätze anerkannter...