The paper uses survey data to analyze whether the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has changed financial market’s expectations on government budget deficits in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial experts’ deficit forecasts has increased in...

This paper investigates the past effectiveness of the Maastricht Treaty (MT) and Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in disciplining fiscal policy in the Euro zone. We estimate fiscal reaction functions for a panel of 11 members of the Euro zone including the more recent period of the reformed SGP,...

In this paper we argue that any assessment on the intentional stance of fiscal policy should be based upon all the information available to policymakers at the time of fiscal planning. In particular, real-time data on the discretionary fiscal policy “instrument”, the structural primary...

Some five years after the severe recession of 2009, private sector investment in Europe is still dangerously sluggish. And public sector investment has been cut, reinforcing the downward trend seen over the past thirty years. In this paper, we discuss the complementarity between private and...

This paper aims at explaining why the CFA countries have successfully maintained a currency union for several decades, despite failing to meet many of optimum currency area criteria. We suggest that the CFA zone, while not optimal, has been at least sustainable. We test this sustainability...

Although nominal parities have been completely pegged within the euro area since the launch of the single currency, real effective exchange rates have continued to vary under the effect of inflation disparities, exhibiting a strong appreciation in the peripheral countries. In this paper, we...

This paper investigates the role of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on bilateral international migration. By increasing the information on the potential destination country, RTAs may favour bilateral migration flows among member countries. Building on the gravity model for migration by Anderson...