This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and … discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation. Disagreement varies over time and is strongly counter …-cyclical. Disagreement is positively correlated with general (economic) uncertainty. Aggregate supply shocks drive disagreement about the …

Economic theory predicts that intertemporal decisions depend critically on expectations about future outcomes. Using … the trend and cycle explains the joint behavior of both consensus measures of expectations and the observed disagreement … predicts a link between revisions in long-run expectations to short-term forecast errors. In structural models, learning about …

We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a … of disagreement differs markedly across variables: the term structure is downward-sloping for real output growth …, relatively flat for CPI inflation, and upward-sloping for the federal funds rate; 3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons …