This document analyzes the macroeconomic effects of a boom in a small-open economy’s natural-resource sector. We study the effects of this shock on the most important macroeconomic variables, the resource reallocation across sectors and on welfare under alternative fiscal rules. We employ a...

Durante las dos últimas décadas, los mercados de deuda pública se han desarrollado significativamente en las economías emergentes. A pesar de las ventajas que el desarrollo de este mercado tiene sobre el sector financiero, la volatilidad en el precio de los bonos soberanos conlleva riesgos...

Este documento examina la dinámica de la deuda pública colombiana, distinguiendo entre la deuda cierta (la del SPNF) y la deuda contingente (la pensional y la correspondiente a las garantías estatales). Los ejercicios tradicionales sobre sostenibilidad de la deuda rara vez incluyen los...

The hypothesis that the internal public debt has played the role of shock absorber in Colombia since 1923 is modelled. 1923 was an important landmark in the history of fiscal and monetary reforms in Colombia during the twentieth century. The econometric results offer a strong support for the...

Capital flows often confront central banks with a dilemma: to contain the exchange rate or to allow it to float. To tackle this problem, an equilibrium model of capital flows is proposed. The model captures sudden stops with shocks to the country risk premium. This enables the model to deal with...

This paper surveys some facts relevant for the understanding of the Colombian experience with public finance and debt since 1923. The stylized facts are classified in three groups as follows: first, facts associated with the dependence of the economy on the external sector; second, facts which...

En este trabajo se muestra que el EMBI-Colombia está determinado por el apetito por riesgo de los inversionistas internacionales y que su respuesta es no lineal y está influenciada por la postura fiscal del gobierno. Se encuentra también que la relación entre estas variables sufrió un...

In the past decade the Colombian Economic Authorities undertook a series of measures that reduced the structural fiscal deficit, decreased the Government currency mismatch and deepened the local fixed-rate public bond market. This paper presents some evidence suggesting that these improvements...

El desarrollo económico y social en Colombia está amenazado, entre otros factores, por la "inestabilidad jurídica", agravada ahora por el activismo de la Corte Constitucional durante los años 1994-2000. En este documento se ilustran los efectos económicos mas profundos que habrán de tener...

In an economy conducted under an Inflation Targeting regime, the output gap becomes one of the most important variables to guide monetary policy. Defined as the difference between observed and potential or non-inflationary output, the gap is a measure of the state of aggregate demand and,...