This paper examines the econometric causal model for policy analysis developed by the seminal ideas of Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo. We compare the econometric causal model with two popular causal frameworks: Neyman-Holland causal model and the do-calculus. The Neyman-Holland causal model...

We lay out a tractable model for fiscal and monetary policy analysis in a currency union, and analyze its implications for the optimal design of such policies. Monetary policy is conducted by a common central bank, which sets the interest rate for the union as a whole. Fiscal policy is...

One of the most basic methods of technical analysis that is used in the practice of investment is the analysis of moving averages, usually calculated for exchange rates in a candlestick representation. The following paper proposes a new, state model, describing the process of trajectory changes...

This paper proposes a set of novel pricing factors for currency returns that are motivated by microstructure models. In so doing, we bring two strands of the exchange rate literature, namely market-microstructure and risk-based models, closer together. Our novel factors use order flow data to...

This paper analyzes the effects of maternal time allocation between work, child care, and leisure and non-parental child care on a child's cognitive development. By using data for the US from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate a model that takes into account the heterogeneity in a...

Among the many troublesome econometric relationships, the demand for money has proved especially recalcitrant, as evidenced by a long history of tinkering with basic specifications, always in response to some recent perceived forecast failure. The shortcomings of this approach and an alternative...

This paper examines the behaviour of the demand for money in Greece during 1976:1-2000:4, a period that included many of the influences that cause money-demand instability. Two empirical methodologies, vector error correction (VEC) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC)...

Making use of restrictions imposed by equilibrium, theoretical progress has been made on the nonparametric and semiparametric estimation and identification of scalar additive hedonic models (Ekeland, Heckman, and Nesheim, 2002) and scalar nonadditive hedonic models (Heckman, Matzkin, and...

New developments in the world economy have triggered research designed to better understand the changes in trade and investment patterns, and the reorganization of production across national borders. Although traditional trade theory has much to offer in explaining parts of this puzzle, other...

The cryptocurrency market has recently gained a lot of interest from investors worldwide but is also much more volatile than the stock market. Volatility is a significant characteristic of both exchange markets and has a great influence on investment behavior. However, there is little research...

This study gives a new identity to a knowledge search mode named search diversity and investigates how it is more rigorous in capturing knowledge heterogeneity in comparison to general assessment of search breadth. By distinguishing between diversifying and expanding search domain as building...

Purpose: This paper analyzes the association of searching diversely as a strategy to capture external knowledge and that of competition intensity with innovation in logistics. Secondly it studies how these associations interact by examining whether they intensify or mitigate one another when...

There are different determinants for organizational innovation. By taking an encompassing look into dynamics of organizational innovation, this paper examines how organizational innovation is an outcome to interaction of knowledge search strategies and underlying market conditions. Although the...

Based on panel data of 116 countries in 2014-2019, this paper investigates the association between mobile broadband speed and labor productivity. It finds no robust contemporaneous relationship, but there is a significant and robust effect when a one-year lag of mobile broadband speed is...

Energy is the basis for development of material civilization. Since fossil energy can cause environmental problems, clean energy has become the trend of energy development. Solar energy is a kind of resource-rich and clean energy. Therefore, it exists great prospects of development. In addition,...

When estimating fiscal policy reaction functions (FRF), the literature has well recognized the importance of non-linearities. However, there is yet very little attempt to formally test for the presence and potential sources of a non-linear fiscal responsiveness. In this paper we address this gap...

We estimate the effect of political regime transitions on growth with semi-parametric methods, combining difference in differences with matching, that have not been used in macroeconomic settings. Our semi-parametric estimates suggest that previous parametric estimates may have seriously...

This paper examines the effect of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) advertising on youth smoking. NRT advertising could decrease smoking by informing smokers that the product can make quitting easier and thus inducing more smokers to try and quit. However, a moral hazard is created because NRT...

This paper presents a complete general equilibrium model with flexible wages where the degree to which wages and productivity change when cyclical employment changes is roughly consistent with postwar U.S. data. Firms with market power are assumed to bargain simultaneously with many employees,...

Is the variety of products supplied in markets a reflection of the diversity of consumers' preferences? In this paper, we argue that the distribution of durable goods offered in markets tends to be compressed relative to the distribution of consumers' underlying preferences. In particular, there...

The study of the bias of new technologies is important both as part of the analysis of the nature of technology adoption and the direction of technological change, and to understand the distributional implications of new technologies. In this paper, I analyze the equilibrium bias of technology....

Japan has seen episodes in which boom and bust in land prices is accompanied by boom and bust in business fixed investment. We develop a model that includes land in the production function. We show that in this model movements in land prices will be associated with movements of the capital stock...

Training a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to achieve a minimum level of MSE is akin to doing Non-Linear Regression (NLR). Therefore, we use available econometric theory and the corresponding tools in R. Only if certain assumptions about the error term in the Data Generating Process are in place,...

This paper describes a range of methods which have been proposed to study interactions in economic and social contexts. By interactions, we refer to interdependences between individual decisions which are not mediated by markets. These types of models have been employed to understand phenomena...

The Rational Distributed Lag Structural Form of an econometric model is introduced, and its relationship to several traditional forms of representation is discussed. The traditional forms are viewed as special cases of the Rational Structural Form. Thus, the latter provides a unified framework...

This paper develops a NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) model for two large economies, the Eurozone and the United States, which are fully specified and allowed to interact. After description of the theoretical framework grounding on dynamic disequilibrium modelling approach in continuous...

Testing and estimating the rank of a matrix of estimated parameters is key in a large variety of econometric modelling scenarios. This paper describes general methods to test for and estimate the rank of a matrix, and provides details on a variety of modelling scenarios in the econometrics...

When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present...

We estimate the effect of political regime transitions on growth with semi-parametric methods, combining difference in differences with matching, that have not been used in macroeconomic settings. Our semi-parametric estimates suggest that previous parametric estimates may have seriously...

Unlike many other contracts, employment contracts are subject to various external administrative procedures governing separations, ranging from compulsory severance payments and advance notice periods (usually seniority based), to collective layoff procedures (usually depending on the firm's...

We consider a therapeutic market with potentially three pharmaceutical firms. Two of the firms offer horizontally differentiated brand-name drugs. One of the brand-name drugs is a new treatment under patent protection that will be introduced if the profits are sufficient to cover the entry...

In a dynamic labor market worker-firm matches dissolve frequently causing workers to separate and firms to look for replacements. A separation may be initiated by the worker (a quit) or the firm (a layoff), or may result from a joint decision. A dissolution of a worker-firm match may be...

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic theory is ambiguous about the possible effects on the long-run growth rate of the economy. Using a dynamic panel data model,...

We estimate a model of the joint participation and mobility along with the individuals' wage formation in France. Our model makes it possible to distinguish between unobserved person heterogeneity and state-dependence. We estimate the model using state of the art bayesian methods employing a...

In this paper we present simulations of economic performance of the Polish economy based on a quarterly econometric model. The model consists of 22 stochastic equations, which link the financial market with the real economy. The purpose of the research is to present effects of changes to...

This paper examines the influence of adult market wages and having parents who were child labourers on child labour, when this decision is jointly determined with child schooling, using data from Egypt. The empirical results suggest that low adult market wages are key determinants of child...

This paper examines possible explanations for observed differences in the transmission of euro area monetary policy in central bank large-scale macroeconomic models. In particular it considers the extent to which these differences are due to differences in the underlying economies or (possibly...

Because their departures are difficultly observed, little is known about the performance of immigrants who leave a region and move to another. This paper shows conditions under which the (conditional) outmigration probability, work probability and the expected earnings of outmigrants are...

This paper presents a canonical, econometric model of contagion and investigates the conditions under which contagion can be distinguished from inter-dependence. In a two-country (market) setup it is shown that for a range of fundamentals the solution is not unique, and for sufficiently large...

This paper proposes a new paradigm for the analysis of monetary policy. From an econometric point of view this new approach is just as easy to implement as reduced form analysis, but is robust to the Lucas critique. It requires no explicit prior theory and yet it encompasses all standard DSGE...

This paper considers the identification and estimation of hedonic models. We establish that in an additive version of the hedonic model, technology and preferences are generically identified up to affine transformations from data on demand and supply in a single hedonic market. For a very...