The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing dramatically worldwide. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for short-term real-time forecasting of the number of Covid-19...

We provide a shrinkage type methodology which allows for simultaneous model selection and estimation of vector error correction models (VECM) when the dimension is large and can increase with sample size. Model determination is treated as a joint selection problem of cointegrating rank and...

Energy futures have become important as alternative investment assets to minimize the volatility of portfolio return, owing to their low links with traditional financial markets. In order to make energy futures markets grow further, it is necessary to expand expectations of returns from trading...

We study the relationship between per-capita income and income inequality with a heterogeneous panel co-integration approach.We extend previous studies in two respects: first, we compile a more extensive data set for 61 countries over 26-51 years and consider measures for both pre-tax and...

This paper examines stock market integration between the ASEAN five and the US and China, respectively, over the period from November 2002 to March 2018. The linkages between both aggregate and financial sector stock indices (both weekly and monthly) are analysed using fractional integration and...

We examine the effect of population size on government size for a panel of 130 countries for the period between 1970 and 2014. We show that previous analyses of the nexus between population size and government size are incorrectly specified and fail to consider the influence of cross-sectional...

Mexican economic historiography recognizes the key role that public investment played in the country's economic performance from the post-revolutionary period until the beginning of the economic liberalization that began in the mid-1980s. However, there is no concrete empirical evidence that...

"Sustainable investment"-includes a variety of asset classes selected while caring for the causes of environmental, social, and governance (ESG). It is an investment strategy that seeks to combine social and/ or environmental benefits with financial returns, thus linking investor’s social,...

In the developing economy, tourism is the most visible and steadiest growing facade. Tourism is considered one of the rapidly increasing elements for economic development from the last two decades. Therefore, the proposed study used vector autoregression (VAR) model, error correction model...

The objective of this paper is the joint application of two different methodological concepts for the detection of lead-lag relationships in economic time-series in order to investigate their consistency and their potential complementarity. The first methodology, a time domain analysis based on...

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate misalignment on outward capital flight in Botswana over the period 1980-2015. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality. Botswana's currency...

Since the appearance of persistent research finding a disconnection between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals, the empirical debate has not stopped. Studies employ various methods to explain the presence of the exchange rate disconnect puzzle, including applying models to the...

This study investigated the relative Granger causal effects of oil price on exchange rate, trade balance, and foreign reserve in Nigeria. We used seasonally adjusted quarterly data from 1986Q4 to 2018Q1 to remove predictable changes in the series. Given the non-stationarity of our variables, we...

Over the past three decades, China and India have attained economic power close to that of Japan and the U.S. During this period, the importance of the derivatives market within the financial market has been widely recognized. However, little supporting evidence is available on its economic...

Background: One of the principal goals of monetary policy pursued by Central Banks worldwide is virtually price stability. Understanding inflationary dispositions and its determinants is therefore a critical issue from the monetary authorities, scholars and the policy makers viewpoint. The...

This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017. ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is applied to test the long-run relation between the dependent and the independent...

This paper demonstrates a significant, long-running relationship between stock prices and domestic interest rates in Turkey’s financial markets for the period of 2001 M1 – 2017 M4. Cointegration analysis is investigated using the autoregressive-distributed lag bounds (ARDL Bounds) test and...

This paper takes a panel cointegration approach to the estimation of short- and long-run exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import prices in the European countries. Although economic theory suggests a long-run relationship between import prices and exchange rate, in recent empirical studies...

Norway experienced a high immigration flow after the EEA directive in 2004 stating workers right to free movement within the European Union and EEA-countries. There is no clear consensus in the literature on how immigration affects native wages, but some studies using Norwegian micro data have...

Norway experienced a high immigration flow after the EEA directive in 2004 stating workers right to free movement within the European Union and EEA-countries. There is no clear consensus in the literature on how immigration affects native wages, but some studies using Norwegian micro data have...

After controversial public debates, fuel price regulations were implemented in Austria prohibiting fuel retailers from raising their prices more than once per day. This paper investigates whether these policy measures affected the price transmission dynamics from crude oil prices to retail fuel...

We consider the fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model of Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) and make two distinct contributions. First, in their con- sistency proof, Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) imposed moment conditions on the errors that depend on the parameter space, such that...

Previous research has assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a few macro variables. In this paper, we consider its impact on oil prices. Oil prices are usually determined in global markets by the law of demand and supply. Our concern in this paper is to determine which country’s policy...

Research subject of this paper is the credit transmission mechanism in the Republic of Macedonia or in other words this paper investigates the effects of the monetary signals by the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia on banks' lending. The credit transmission is analyzed through its...

This paper investigates the causal links between domestic capital investment, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in Saudi Arabia over the period 1970–2015 by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing to cointegration approach. The fully modified ordinary...

We investigate non-oil sector effects of fiscal policy in Azerbaijan over a long time period in which a recent low oil prices sample is incorporated. To obtain robust empirical findings, we use different test and estimation methods as well as address small-sample bias issues in the extended...

We used panel data analysis to evaluate the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis of the ten ASEAN member countries between 1973 and 2015. We incorporated the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test as proposed by Pesaran (J Appl Econ 22:265-312, 2007). For panel...

This study investigates the impact of energy consumption on poverty reduction in a panel of 12 African countries over a period of 1981-2014. Using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) method, the study shows that a long-run negative relationship exists between energy consumption and...

We study the long-term and dynamic relationship between de jure and de facto judicial independence using a large panel dataset covering 50 countries over a period of 50 years. Our analysis shows a negative relationship between these variables, a sharp contrast to the prevailing theoretical view...

We consider the Fractional Vector Error Correction model proposed in Avarucci (2007), which is characterized by a richer lag structure than the models proposed in Granger (1986) and Johansen (2008, 2009). In particular, we discuss the properties of the model of Avarucci (2007) (FECM) in...

This paper proposes a hierarchical modeling approach to perform stochastic model specification in Markov switching vector error correction models. We assume that a common distribution gives rise to the regime-specific regression coefficients. The mean as well as the variances of this...

We estimate the long- and short-run relationship between top income and wealth shares for France and the US since 1913. We find strong evidence for a long-run cointegration relationship governed by relative saving rates at the top. For both countries, we estimate a decline in the relative saving...

We study the long-term and dynamic relationship between de jure and de facto judicial independence using a large panel dataset covering 50 countries over a period of 50 years. Our analysis shows a negative relationship between these variables, a sharp cont rast to the prevailing theoretical view...

The objective of this study is to empirically examine the capital structure theories that can explain the capital structure choice made by the firms that are operating in China, India, and South Africa. The study tests the capital structure theories as a stand-alone basis as well as an...

This paper aims to investigate the long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth using panel unit root and panel cointegration analysis in 16 selected low-income countries for the period of 20 years from 1995 to 2014. The long-run relationship has been estimated using...

This study re-examines the stock market development and economic growth nexus. Also, examine the moderating role of foreign capital inflows and exchange rate on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth of Malaysia during 1981–2016. This study applies Granger test,...

This paper examines G-PPP and business cycle synchronization in the East Africa Community with the aim of assessing the prospects for a monetary union. The univariate fractional integration analysis shows that the individual series exhibit unit roots and are highly persistent. The fractional...