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Year of publication
Subject
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Adaptive expectations 336 Adaptive Erwartungen 312 Theorie 238 Theory 237 Rational expectations 123 Rationale Erwartung 122 Learning process 111 Lernprozess 111 United States 83 USA 81 adaptive expectations 68 Erwartungsbildung 62 Expectation formation 62 Geldpolitik 56 Monetary policy 56 Inflation expectations 47 Inflationserwartung 47 Bounded rationality 36 Begrenzte Rationalität 34 inflation 26 rational expectations 25 Forecasting model 22 Lernen 22 Prognoseverfahren 22 Learning 21 monetary policy 21 Börsenkurs 19 Dynamic equilibrium 19 Dynamisches Gleichgewicht 19 Wechselkurs 19 Exchange rate 18 Phillips curve 18 Share price 18 Estimation 17 Neoclassical synthesis 17 Neoklassische Synthese 17 Schätzung 17 Adaptive Expectations 15 CAPM 15 Phillips-Kurve 15
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Online availability
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Free 160 Undetermined 64
Type of publication
All
Book / Working Paper 231 Article 189 Journal 1 Other 1
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 146 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 146 Working Paper 133 Graue Literatur 129 Non-commercial literature 129 Arbeitspapier 124 Aufsatz im Buch 24 Book section 24 Hochschulschrift 9 Thesis 7 Case study 4 Fallstudie 4 Collection of articles written by one author 3 Mehrbändiges Werk 3 Multi-volume publication 3 Sammlung 3 Collection of articles of several authors 2 Conference paper 2 Konferenzbeitrag 2 Sammelwerk 2 Systematic review 2 Übersichtsarbeit 2 Amtsdruckschrift 1 Article 1 Aufsatzsammlung 1 Bibliografie enthalten 1 Bibliography included 1 Commentary 1 Dissertation u.a. Prüfungsschriften 1 Forschungsbericht 1 Glossar enthalten 1 Glossary included 1 Government document 1 Kommentar 1 Lehrbuch 1 Monografische Reihe 1 Series 1 Textbook 1
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Language
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English 352 Undetermined 56 German 10 French 1 Polish 1 Russian 1 Spanish 1
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Author
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Evans, George W. 37 Honkapohja, Seppo 37 Mitra, Kaushik 25 McGough, Bruce 11 Branch, William A. 10 Shleifer, Andrei 10 Fagiolo, Giorgio 7 Hommes, Cars H. 7 Marengo, Luigi 7 Valente, Marco 7 Gennaioli, Nicola 6 Molnár, Krisztina 6 Palestrini, Antonio 6 Santoro, Sergio 6 Smets, Frank 6 Vestin, David 6 Berardi, Michele 5 Gallegati, Mauro 5 Gaspar, Vítor 5 Heinemann, Maik 5 Vaona, Andrea 5 Barberis, Nicholas 4 Bover, Olympia 4 Carlson, John B. 4 Gundermann, Marco 4 Guse, Eran A. 4 He, Xue-zhong 4 Huang, Kevin X. D. 4 Kiefer, David 4 Liu, Zheng 4 Ramey, Garey 4 Valori, Vincenzo 4 Walker, Warren E. 4 Zha, Tao 4 Ahmed, Shaghil 3 Akinci, Ozge 3 Bleaney, Michael F. 3 Chen, Shu-Heng 3 Chiarella, Carl 3 Chow, Gregory C. 3
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Institution
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) 21 International Monetary Fund 5 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3 EconWPA 3 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 3 Department of Economics, University of Utah 2 Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa, Università degli Studi di Firenze 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2 Society for Computational Economics - SCE 2 Zakład Ekonometrii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie 2 de Nederlandsche Bank 2 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association - AAEA 1 Banco de España 1 Brown University / Department of Economics 1 Business School, University of Nottingham 1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics 1 Department of Economics, Iowa State University 1 Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania 1 Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Facoltà di Economia 1 Economics and Finance Division, Business School 1 Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet <Stockholm> 1 Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia <Rio de Janeiro> 1 European University Institute / Department of Economics 1 Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies, Department of Economics 1 Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung 1 Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) 1 Institute of Finance and Accounting <London> 1 Kansantaloustieteen Laitos <Helsinki> 1 Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna 1 National Bureau of Economic Research 1 Palgrave Macmillan 1 School of Economics and Finance, Business School 1 Sciences économiques, Sciences Po 1 Scuola superiore Sant'Anna di studi universitari e di perfezionamento / Laboratory of Economics and Management 1 Tinbergen Instituut 1 Uniwersytet Warszawski / Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych 1 Økonomisk institutt, Universitetet i Oslo 1
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Published in...
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Journal of economic dynamics & control 18 IMF Working Papers 17 Macroeconomic dynamics 11 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 10 Bank of Finland research discussion papers 9 Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to practice 8 CDMA working paper series 7 Economics letters 7 Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 7 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 7 Journal of macroeconomics 5 CESifo working papers 4 Discussion paper / Department of Economics, University of California San Diego 4 Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute 4 IMF Staff Country Reports 4 CEPR Discussion Papers 3 Diskussionsarbeit 3 Journal of monetary economics 3 MPRA Paper 3 Macroeconomics 3 University of Oregon Economics Department working papers 3 Working Paper 3 Working paper series / European Central Bank 3 CREDIT research paper 2 DSGE models in macroeconomics : estimation, evaluation, and new developments 2 Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford 2 Discussion paper / Central Bureau voor de Statistiek 2 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Forecasting 2 Discussion paper series 2 Diskussionspapiere / Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Hannover 2 EUI working paper / ECO 2 Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society, an internat. society for the advancement of economic theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics 2 Economic inquiry : journal of the Western Economic Association International 2 Economics / Discussion papers : the open-access, open-assessment e-journal 2 Economics / Journal articles : the open-access, open-assessment journal 2 Economics Letters 2 European economic review : EER 2 Europäische Hochschulschriften / 5 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series 2 International journal of finance & economics : IJFE 2
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 335 RePEc 74 EconStor 10 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 2 BASE 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 422
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Stock return extrapolation, option prices, and variance risk premium
Atmaz, Adem - In: The review of financial studies 35 (2022) 3, pp. 1348-1393
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012878993
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U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: Both shocks and vulnerabilities matter
Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert - 2021
We explore how the sources of shocks driving interest rates, country vulnerabilities, and central bank communications affect the spillovers of U.S. monetary policy changes to emerging market economies (EMEs). We utilize a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions and partly...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012619549
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Adaptive Agents May Be Smarter than You Think : Unbiasedness in Adaptive Expectations
Palestrini, Antonio; Gallegati, Mauro; Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2021
Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics –...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013217385
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Market Pricing of Fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange : Evidence from a Dividend Discount Model with Adaptive Expectations
Li, Mingyang; Niu, Linlin; Pua, Andrew - 2021
We study market pricing of fundamentals at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, incorporating possible irrational pricing behavior with adaptive expectation. Using panel data of listed stocks to overcome the limited information in aggregate time series data, we estimated key parameters of the price...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013244571
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U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: both shocks and vulnerabilities matter
Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert - 2021
We explore how the sources of shocks driving interest rates, country vulnerabilities, and central bank communications affect the spillovers of U.S. monetary policy changes to emerging market economies (EMEs). We utilize a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions and partly...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012584356
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Initial beliefs uncertainty and information weighting in the estimation of models with adaptive learning
Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2021
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012601834
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Forward guidance with unanchored expectations
Eusepi, Stefano; Gibbs, Chris; Preston, Bruce - 2021
We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to...
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Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012614064
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U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets : both shocks and vulnerabilities matter
Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert - 2021
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012590277
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Adaptive agents may be smarter than you think : unbiasedness in adaptive expectations
Palestrini, Antonio; Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro - 2021
Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human subjects frequently rely on adaptive heuristics –...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012599034
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Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting
Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2021
Recent models of monetary policy have analyzed the desirability of different optimal and ad hoc interest rules under the restrictive assumption that forecasts of the private sector and the central bank are homogenous. In this paper, we study the implications of heterogeneity in forecasts of the...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013320251
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Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy
Gaspar, Vítor; Smets, Frank; Vestin, David - 2021
We show that, when private sector expectations are determined in line with adaptive learning, optimal policy responds persistently to cost-push shocks. The optimal response is stronger and more persistent, the higher is the initial level of perceived inflation persistence by the private sector....
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013317572
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Expectations and Adaptation to Environmental Risks
Shrader, Jeffrey - 2020
Climate change is projected to severely damage the global economy. Adaptation in response to a changing climate will affect how much damage ultimately occurs. This paper introduces a method for estimating forward-looking adaptation based on differences in responses to forecasts and realizations...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012851890
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Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle : inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning
De Groot, Oliver; Mazelis, Falk - 2020
This paper develops a simple, consistent methodology for generating empirically realistic forward guidance simulations using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method lies in the exact preservation of all other shock...
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Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012241145
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Do carrier expectations indicate industry structure in container shipping? : an econometric analysis
Fusillo, Michael; Haralambides, Hercules E. - In: Journal of shipping and trade 5 (2020) 2, pp. 1-16
In the competitive environment of liner shipping, the ability to nimbly adjust shipping capacity to demand could mean the difference between a thriving shipping operation and one that will most likely fail. How quickly and effectively carriers adjust their capacity may depend on how their...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012301114
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On the expectational stability of rational expectations equilibria in news-shock DSGE models
Dombeck, Brian - In: Macroeconomic dynamics 26 (2022) 1, pp. 102-126
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013166205
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Heterogeneity in inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics under evolutionarily satisficing learning
Silveira, Jaylson Jair da; Lima, Gilberto Tadeu - In: Macroeconomic dynamics 26 (2022) 2, pp. 361-393
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013166383
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Service facilities with risk-averse customers : a simulation approach
Delgado-Alvarez, Carlos A.; VanAckere, Ann; Larsen, … - In: International transactions in operational research : a … 29 (2022) 4, pp. 2705-2727
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012815231
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Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs
Branch, William A.; Gasteiger, Emanuel - 2019
This paper develops a theory of endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs. That is, whether Ricardian Equivalence holds in an equilibrium depends on endogenous private sector beliefs. The novelty here is a restricted perceptions viewpoint: in complex forecasting environments, agents forecast...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011988962
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Econometric models of inflation in Brazil : structuralists, monetarists and rational expectations approachs, 1995-2017
Carvalho, Andre Cutrim; Carvalho, David Ferreira - In: Applied econometrics and international development 19 (2019) 2, pp. 91-106
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012207276
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Nash's interpretations of equilibrium : solving the objections to Cournot
Streb, Jorge M. - 2015
A Nash equilibrium can also be seen as a Cournot-Nash equilibrium, though this is debated because Cournot provided a specific application, not a general formulation. In my view, another of Nash's fundamental contributions stands out when contrasting him to Cournot. Cournot treated economic...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011378728
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Information and expectations in policy-making : Friedman’s changing approaches to macroeconomic dynamics
Rivot, Sylvie - In: Revue d'économie politique 131 (2021) 3, pp. 531-556
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012886276
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When a boundedly rational monopolist meets consumers with reference dependent preferences
Tramontana, Fabio - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 184 (2021), pp. 30-45
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012600843
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Testing the properties of financial analysts' predictions of future spot exchange rates (example of CZK/EUR)
Mandel, Martin; Vejmělek, Jan - In: Finance a úvěr 71 (2021) 1, pp. 33-51
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012601894
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Asymmetric attention
Kohlhas, Alexandre N.; Walther, Ansgar - In: American economic review 111 (2021) 9, pp. 2879-2925
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012614345
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Adaptive expectations and commodity risk premiums
Bianchi, Daniele - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 124 (2021), pp. 1-22
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Adaptive learning and macroeconomic policy in DSGE models
Özden, Tolga - 2021
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Expectations in an open economy hyperinflation : evidence from Germany 1921-23
Reghezza, Alessio; Seghezza, Elena; Thornton, John - In: Economics letters 192 (2020), pp. 1-3
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012508588
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Experience maketh the mind? : top management teams' experiential background and cognitive search for adaptive solutions
Sidhu, Jatinder S.; Heyden, Mariano L. M.; Volberda, Henk W. - In: Industrial and corporate change 29 (2020) 2, pp. 333-350
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012182550
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Inflation expectations and the Phillips curve : then and now
Hagemann, Harald - In: Expectations : theory and applications from historical …, (pp. 131-144). 2020
The Phillips curve has been in the focus of many key debates in macroeconomics ever since Samuelson and Solow (1960) modified the original curve in linking the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. This essay analyzes the links of the modern discussion to the debates over time highlighting...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012199574
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Memory, attention, and choice
Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei - In: The quarterly journal of economics 135 (2020) 3, pp. 1399-1442
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012259129
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Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy : a nonlinear analysis
Honkapohja, Seppo; Evans, George W.; Mitra, Kaushik - 2020
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012288308
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Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations
Rötheli, Tobias F. - 2017
This paper presents an empirically based model of rational expectations. Bottom-up inflation expectations are computed using data from a once-only laboratory-based survey. To capture cognition under habitual conditions (Kahneman, 2003) we elicit subjects' responses to stylized time series...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012974263
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Rethinking the power of forward guidance : lessons from Japan
Gertler, Mark - 2017
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Learning, leverage and stability
Howitt, Peter - In: International journal of computational economics and … 7 (2017) 3, pp. 265-279
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011740371
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Expectations, stagnation and fiscal policy
Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2016
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Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011524414
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On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2016
We review and evaluate methods previously adopted in the applied literature of adaptive learning in order to initialize agents' beliefs. Previous methods are classified into three broad classes: equilibrium-related, training sample-based, and estimation-based. We conduct several simulations...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011573204
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Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP)
Walker, Warren E.; Marchau, Vincent A. W. J.; Kwakkel, … - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 53-69). 2019
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012022944
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Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)
Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Warren, Andrew; Kwakkel, Jan H. - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 71-92). 2019
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012022947
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Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP) : the case of intelligent speed adaptation
Marchau, Vincent A. W. J.; Walker, Warren E.; Van der … - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 165-186). 2019
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012022964
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Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) : from theory to practice
Lawrence, Judy; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; McKim, Laura; … - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 187-199). 2019
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012022984
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A conceptual model of Planned Adaptation (PA)
Sowell, Jesse - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 289-320). 2019
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012023002
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DMDU into practice : Adaptive Delta Management in The Netherlands
Bloemen, Pieter J. T. M.; Hammer, Floris; Vlist, … - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 321-351). 2019
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012023006
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Supporting DMDU : a taxonomy of approaches and tools
Kwakkel, Jan H.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 355-374). 2019
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Conclusions and outlook
Marchau, Vincent A. W. J.; Walker, Warren E.; Bloemen, … - In: Decision making under deep uncertainty : from theory to …, (pp. 393-400). 2019
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012023028
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Inflation dynamics and adaptive expectations in an estimated DSGE model
Gelain, Paolo; Iskrev, Nikolay; Lansing, Kevin J.; … - In: Journal of macroeconomics 59 (2019), pp. 258-277
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10012245007
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Nash's interpretations of equilibrium: Solving the objections to Cournot
Streb, Jorge M. - 2015
A Nash equilibrium can also be seen as a Cournot-Nash equilibrium, though this is debated because Cournot provided a specific application, not a general formulation. In my view, another of Nash's fundamental contributions stands out when contrasting him to Cournot. Cournot treated economic...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011460819
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Adaptive expectations with correction bias : evidence from the lab
Colasante, Annarita; Palestrini, Antonio; Russo, Alberto; … - 2015
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011885809
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Approaching urban vulnerability to climate change induced risks in socio-environmentally fragmented areas : the case of Santiago de Chile
Krellenberg, Kerstin; Link, Felipe; Welz, Juliane; … - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung - 2015
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011441363
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Expectations formation under adaptive learning and evolutionary dynamics
Berardi, Michele - 2015
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10011311183
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Incentives and Adaptive Expectations in a Financial Market with Heterogenous Agents
Wang, Juanxi - 2015
This paper establishes an agent-based model to describe the dynamic behaviour of the financial market with mutual fund managers and investors under two types of compensation contracts: asset-based fees and performance-based fees, and using two types of adaptive expectation: trend chaser and...
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013010701
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