This study aims to construct a new monthly leading indicator for Tunisian economic activity and to forecast Tunisian quarterly real GDP (RGDP) using several mixed-frequency models. These include a mixed dynamic factor model, unrestricted mixed-data sampling (UMIDAS), and a threepass regression...

COVID-19, a novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has wreaked havoc on global financial markets, economies, and societies. For example, this study looks at the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese economy and its policy responses (fiscal, monetary, and institutional). This study also examines future...

The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between government consumption and aggregate output in five Nordic countries in two different scenarios: first, in periods when government consumption increases and, second, in periods when government consumption decreases. Therefore, the...

Economic analysts have used trends in total factor productivity (TFP) to evaluate the effectiveness with which economies are utilizing advances in technology. However, this measure is problematic on several different dimensions. First, the idea that it is possible to separate out the relative...

In this paper, we analyse Okun's law - a relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth - using data from Australia, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. More specifically, we assess the relevance of non-Gaussianity when modelling the relation. This is...

We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank...

We use mixed-frequency (quarterly-monthly) data to estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded with the financial accelerator mechanism a la Bernanke et al. (1999). We find that the financial accelerator can work very differently at monthly frequency compared to the...

Previous studies have argued that output growth in advanced economies declined during the Great Recession and remained low afterward. This paper proposes a model to explain this slowdown in output growth. We incorporate wealth preferences and downward nominal wage rigidity into a standard...

To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2020, thereby improving the regional database in Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when...

The German economy is an important economic driver in the Euro-area in terms of gross domestic product, labour force and international integration. We provide a state of the art estimate of the German output gap between 1995 and 2021 and present a nowcasting scheme that accurately predicts the...

Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a...

We analyze how trade affects aggregate volatility using a multi-country, multiindustry, and multi-destination framework. We decompose aggregate output growth risk into destination risk, origin risk, and idiosyncratic risk (and their covariances). We then use this framework to run counterfactuals...

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current quarterly nowcasts of the gross domestic product in Bosnia and Herzegovina based on the flow of available monthly economic indicators that are available during the same quarter. The nowcasting performance indicates that it is worthwhile to include a...

This study analyzes the relationships between domestic and foreign output gaps, current-account imbalances, and real effective exchange-rate (REER) misalignments. We first set up a theoretical framework based on the elasticities and absorption approaches of the balance of payments to derive and...

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the key indicator of the health of an economy and can be easily compared across countries. But it has limitations. GDP tells what is going on today, but does not inform about sustainability of growth. The majority of time is spent in home production, yet the value...

Assessing potential output and the output gap is essential for policy-making and fiscal surveillance. The European Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models. This paper presents the R package RGAP which...

This paper estimates potential growth in Turkey using a production function estimation approach. Our approach aims to measure the inputs of production in the most detailed fashion that is possible and empirically addresses concepts of sustainable potential growth for Turkey. While developing...

We show that GDP-linked bonds can provide diversification benefits to investors. We use a stochastic spanning methodology which makes no assumptions on the distri- butional characteristics of the returns of these novel instruments and test both floaters and linkers. None of these types of...

The import content of exports (ICE) is defined as the amount of foreign input embodied in one unit of export, and it has been used as a measure of the degree of integration into the global production network. In this paper, we suggest an alternative measure based on the decomposition of gross...

According to the conventional view of the business cycle, fluctuations in output represent temporary deviations from trend. The purpose of this paper is to question this conventional view. If fluctuations in output are dominated by temporary deviations from the natural rate of output, then an...

This paper provides first evidence on the effects of local public debt shocks on economic activity for highly indebted local governments. Exploiting two exogenous shocks on public debt that affect French municipalities indebted with CHF-toxic loans, I am able to disentangle the impact of an...

We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. Within a quantile regression setup, we propose a method to parsimoniously account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks....

We propose a novel decomposition of the input-output linkage impact into linkage efficiency and linkage strength. We show that, for standard multisectoral models, countries' GDP growth rates are related to the average total backward linkages in the economy, which we call linkage strength, and to...

This paper studies weekly output fluctuations from 1972 to 1983 at fifty final assembly plants in the U.S. automobile industry. The study makes use of a new data set that contains detailed information on plant operations. The main findings of the paper are: (1) Even at the simplest fabrication...

We study the origin of comovement in economic fluctuations across regions in India through a unique administrative dataset on plant-level sales. Regional sales exhibit a high level of comovement that can be traced to a small number of large plants located in different regions, indicating a...

A common feature to most aggregative studies of the labor market is a marginal productivity expression in which the quantity of labor appears on the left hand side of the equation, and the right hand side includes the real wage and output. A number of researchers have cautioned that if the...

This paper reviews the leading ideas that have emerged within two paradigms of price adjustment. Neither, it appears, provides a satisfactory theoretical scheme when taken in isolation. This paper concludes that an attempt to merge the more convincing elements of each is needed, and some...

This paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly U.S. postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money, real interestrates, prices and output are compatible with the money-real interest-output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output, which include both...

In recent financial crises and in recent theoretical studies of them, abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, have been linked with large drops in output. Do sudden stops cause output drops? No, according to a standard equilibrium model in which sudden stops are generated by an...

Internal epidemiological restrictions and external shocks have had a significant impact on economic growth in Russia. Unfavorable changes in the global market environment increased the impact of external factors on economic dynamic: starting from 2019, the scale of exports in terms of value and...