Purpose This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on Egypt's real domestic output from 1960 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is utilized to isolate real currency depreciations from...

We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian economies with arbitrary input-output linkages. Analytically, we decompose how production linkages (1) amplify the persistence of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and...

This paper evaluates whether publicly available daily news lead texts help nowcasting Swiss GDP growth. I collect titles and lead texts from three Swiss newspapers and calculate text-based indicators for various economic concepts. A composite indicator calculated from these indicators is highly...

We develop an experimental framework to investigate the quantity theory of money and the real effects of inflation in an economy where money serves as a medium of exchange. We test the classical view that inflation reduces output and welfare by taxing monetary exchange. Inflation is engineered...

Excessive nighttime light is known to have detrimental effects on health and on the environment (fauna and flora). The paper investigates the link between nighttime light pollution and economic growth, air pollution, and urban density. We propose a county model of consumption which accounts for...

The main aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between the three pillars of the economy: unemployment, inflation, and GDP in Ethiopia using the cross-wavelet transform (XWT) analysis, the multivariate Student-t generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model, and the...

The current study examines the moderating role of R&D expenditures by the government on the relationship between entrepreneurship and per capita output in GCC countries. Using secondary quantitative data, panel data analysis was conducted for six GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman,...

Climate change is rapidly deteriorating environmental conditions through droughts and floods, hurricanes, wildfires, rising temperatures, and more frequent and longer heatwaves. A growing literature has shown how higher temperatures reduce worker productivity and economic output. These effects...

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...

Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the left tail, financial shocks turn out to play a...

This study examines whether and how important it is to adjust output gap frameworks during the COVID-19 pandemic and similar unprecedentedly large-scale episodes. Our proposed modelling framework comprises a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregresion with an identification setup based on a...

The recent advent of the era of Inflation Targeting in India’s monetary policy is symbolic of a rule based approach to monetary policy implemented by both advanced economies and emerging market economies. However, whether this renewed, seminal and discrete, monetary policy arrangement proves...

Contrary to a widely held impression that the share of manufacturing in India’s GDP has stagnated for a long time, it is claimed in the paper that it has increased significantly. Measured at the prices of different goods and services prevailing in 1993-94, the beginning of the post-reform era...

Green technology innovation and effective use of green financing tools are very important in order to ensure sustainable economic and environmental development without environmental degradation, and to decarbonize all sectors, Evaluating the green investment process together with the inputs,...

In this paper we describe the newly developed System for Model Analysis in Real Time (SMART) used for forecasting and model analysis in Norges Bank. While the long-term goal is to include all empirical models used in forecasting in Norges Bank, the emphasis in this paper will be on the empirical...

We incorporate both labor and capital as production inputs and discuss the effects of labor choice on a firm's optimal investment decision and output dynamics based on real options framework. In particular, we introduce different levels of labor flexibility and examine how it affects the firm's...

After the US dollar replaced gold, the US debt became the attention worldwide, thus the demand for the US dollar continued, furthermore the extremely low interest of the dollar. This helped the US government to borrow great amounts of debt as well as kept the creditors pleased. Due to the...

This paper studies the transmission of oil price uncertainty (OPU) to real economic activities by focusing on the role of financial condition. We find that financial stress is an important link in the propagation of OPU based on China's macro and firm-level data. We document significant decrease...

Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional mean models provide only limited evidence to investigate...

We extract tone-adjusted, time-varying and hierarchically ordered topics from a large corpus of Dutch financial news and investigate whether these topics are useful for monitoring the business cycle and nowcasting GDP growth in the Netherlands. The financial newspaper articles span the period...

Major output collapses are costly and frequent in the developing world. Using cross-country data, we classify five-year periods using a two-dimensional state space based on growth regimes and political institutions. We then model the joint evolution of output growth and political institutions as...