Der Beitrag untersucht, inwieweit die Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen der Länder (VGRdL) Ergebnisse liefern, die vor dem Hintergrund anderer Informationen plausibel erscheinen. Als Vergleichsmaßstab dienen dabei die auf die Ebene von Bundesländern zusammengefassten Einschätzungen der...

The basis for studying the North Korean economy is to gain an understanding of the size of the overall economy and the trends within it. However, owing to the fact that North Korea does not release data on its GDP and GNI, the task has fallen on the shoulders of outside researchers and such...

There is a long tradition in literature that banks can play a special role in the propagation of economic fluctuations. Theory suggests many channels through which financial system affects, and is affected by, economic growth. One of the most important empirical studies on this topic shows a...

Lending standards are a direct measure of credit conditions. We use the micro data merged from three separate sources to construct this measure and document that an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, rather than banks' balance sheet positions, was an important reason that a majority of banks...

Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung dieses Jahres ist von dem Einbruch der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Leistung ab dem März geprägt. Nach der ersten Schätzung des Statistischen Bundesamtes ist das BIP im ersten Vierteljahr um 2,2, Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal geschrumpft, während für das zweite...

Emerging countries, also known as developing markets are important drivers for domestic growth and global exchange. Emerging countries are investing more in productive capacities. This means that they strive to move away from their traditional economies like agriculture and export of raw...

Die durch das Coronavirus verursachte Pandemie stellt ein beachtliches gesundheitliches Risiko dar. Zur Bewältigung dieser Krise müssen in erheblichem Umfang wirtschaftliche Ressourcen für das Gesundheitssystem eingesetzt werden. Angesichts der gesundheitlichen Risiken sind die hierfür...

It has been argued that credit-to-GDP gaps (credit gap) are useful early warning indicators for banking crises. In addition, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has also advocated using these gaps - estimated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with a smoothing parameter of 400,000...

We study the effects of credit over the business cycle, distinguishing between expansions and contractions. We find that there is a growth and risk trade-off in the pace of credit growth over the business cycle. While rapid credit growth tends to be followed by deeper recessions, we also find...

Oil is used as an essential source of energy because it is one of the significant inputs of production especially in manufacturing sectors. This study employs symmetric and asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to explore oil price effect on manufacturing output over 1985-2017 in Saudi...

The Basel III framework advises considering a reference indicator at the country level to guide the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer: the credit-to-GDP gap. In this paper, I provide empirical evidence suggesting that the credit-to-GDP gap is subject to spurious medium-term cycles,...

This study seeks to establish the relationship between carbon emissions, agricultural output and industrial output in South Africa. It uses data from 1960 to 2017 based on an annual frequency, giving a total of 58 annual observations. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique is employed to...

We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...

Financial inclusion is the process of including the people who lack formal financial services. The concept of financial inclusion emerged globally in the times of millennium and is defined as the availability and usage of formal financial services. It essentially facilitates economic growth; the...

New research from the ESRI analyses how the COVID-19 crisis will impact upon the Irish economy and environment. It finds that Irish GDP is expected to decrease by around 13 per cent in 2020 as a result of the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 crisis. From an environmental perspective,...

Following an unparalleled rise in uncertainty over the Great Recession, the US economy has been experiencing anaemic productivity growth. This paper offers a quantitative study on the link between uncertainty and low productivity growth. Firstly, using micro level data I show that uncertainty...

This paper explores a new theoretical and empirical approach to the assessment of human wellbeing, relevant to current challenges of social fragmentation in the presence of globalization and technological advance. We present two indexes of well-being - solidarity (S) and agency (A) - to be...

We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we...

The credit-to-GDP gap is a fundamental indicator used to identify credit bubbles. Currently, the indicator takes into account aggregate credit as a ratio of GDP, without distinguishing between local and foreign currency. In the Albanian financial system, foreign currency loans comprise about...

This study investigates asymmetry in the impact of domestic inflation drivers in the Baltic States, focusing on the output gap and unemployment gap. We aim to reveal how positive and negative changes in these economic activity indicators affect the inflation rate by employing a nonlinear...

Die Weltwirtschaft ist aufgrund der Covid-19-Pandemie in eine tiefe Rezession gestürzt. Im ersten Halbjahr 2020 ist der Welthandel dramatisch eingebrochen. Die globale Wirtschaftsaktivität wird in diesem Jahr um 3,9 % stark schrumpfen. Im Prognosezeitraum dürfte die weltwirtschaftliche...

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the development of the economy and contribute significantly to ensure sustainability, economic growth and wealth of nation. A strong and well-developed SME sector contributes significantly to innovation, exports and the creation...

This paper quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier (i.e., the magnifying effect of the real impact of uncertainty shocks due to financial frictions) by relying on two historical events related to the US economy, i.e., the large jump in financial uncertainty occurred in October 1987 (which...

This study investigates the simultaneous openness hypothesis by assessing the importance of trade openness in modulating the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita. The focus of the study is on 25...