We study the implications of trade aggregation in an infinite-horizon economy with multiple countries, asking whether there is a role for alternatives to the Armington aggregator in a wide range of workhorse open-economy macroeconomics models. We show analytically that the first-order dynamics...

Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of particular policies or "treatments” is a key concern for researchers and policymakers. A common approach is to report average treatment effects in different subgroups based on observable covariates. However, there is likely to be considerable uncertainty...

It depends. We reply to this question by providing novel empirical evidence about the US economy. We identify the impact of financial high-frequency shocks on macroeconomic variables by estimating mixed- and common frequency VARs. The results from the mixed-frequency VAR show that economic...

It depends. We reply to this question by providing novel empirical evidence about the US economy. We identify the impact of financial high-frequency shocks on macroeconomic variables by estimating mixed- and common frequency VARs. The results from the mixed-frequency VAR show that economic...

We investigate how a cautious decision maker might aggregate various opinions of experts who face model misspecification. We first consider a more general case in which both the decision maker’s and experts’ preference relations are variational introduced by Maccheroni et al. (2006). We show...

This paper develops and defends a new approach to belief aggregation, involving confidence in beliefs. It is characterised by a variant of the Pareto condition that enjoins respecting consensuses borne of compromise. Confidence aggregation recoups standard probability aggregation rules, such as...

We analyse the impact of oil supply, global economic activity, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil inventory demand shocks on expected aggregate skewness of the United States (US) economy, obtained based on a data-rich environment involving 211 macroeconomic and financial variables over the...

For Savagean preferences, it has been proven in the literature that simultaneous utilitarian aggregation of beliefs and utilities are impossible when the beliefs are countably additive probability measures on a σ-algebra. This note shows that this negative result carries over to the case where...

We construct recurrence plots (RPs) and conduct recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability (CFS) Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States. In this study, we use the latest vintage of Divisia aggregates,...

Large cities (central places) excessively export to smaller cities in their surrounding hinterland. Using Japanese inter-city trade data, we identify a substantial centrality bias: Shipments from central places to their hinterland are 50%-125% larger than predicted by gravity forces. This upward...

Economies of scope in data aggregation (ESDA) are attracting the attention of policymakers and researchers because of the efficiency gains they could bring about. Antitrust authorities, in turn, are concerned about their potential anti-competitive outcomes. However, the concept remains blurry...

Armington's insight that imports and domestically produced goods were imperfect substitutes has unleashed extensive estimates of the associated trade elasticity, primarily for developed countries. This notion of product differentiation, which extends symmetrically to exports and domestic goods,...

We investigate how risk aversion (RA) shapes the informative content of prices in an experimental asset market, where traders are sorted according to their RA. RA should induce steeper individual demands and, under its most common parametrizations, drive equilibrium prices closer to revealing...

This paper decision-theoretically investigates belief aggregation method which allows consistently updating the aggregate belief.After confirming that the Pareto axiom and dynamic consistency require decision power of an individual to evolve proportionally to how much his/her prior has been...

Politicians, CEOs and various other types of dictators make social choices that influence both their own and others' welfare. When a dictator's preferred alternative differs from recipients', it is unclear which preferences they aggregate and how they determine this set of admissible...

This study examines how aggregation in financial reporting leads to information loss using a sample of firms that report individual financial assets. The level of information loss increases with the level of aggregation; however, combining assets with similar risk-factor exposures mitigates this...

How do organizational structures influence organizational decision making? This article reveals organizational structures’ dual function: they both (1) aggregate and (2) shape individuals’ decisions. What makes this dual function so remarkable is that the two effects are diametrically...

Machine learning algorithms dedicated to financial time series forecasting have gained a lot of interest. But choosing between several algorithms can be challenging, as their estimation accuracy may be unstable over time. Online aggregation of experts combine the forecasts of a finite set of...

We study noisy aggregation of dispersed information in financial markets without imposing parametric restrictions on preferences, information, and return distributions. We provide a general characterization of asset returns by means of a risk-neutral probability measure that features excess...

HighlightsOrder aggregation and scheduling in a meal delivery problemAlessandro Agnetis, Matteo Cosmi, Gaia Nicosia, Andrea Pacifici• A new model for scheduling single- or dual-order deliveries• A branch and bound algorithm makes use of sophisticated lower bounding schemes• Extensive...

Some economists argue antitrust policy should be based on empirical methods used by the Industrial Organization subdiscipline of economics, but non-economists must understand that those methods contain certain highly restrictive assumptions. Those assumptions involve econometric...

We reconsider the theory of Thompson aggregators proposed by Marinacci and Montrucchio (2010). We demonstrate the Koopmans equation has a unique utility function solution given a Thompson aggregator. Uniqueness holds only on the interior of the commodity space's positive cone. We verify Du's...

Consider a group of economists evaluating a long-term project by using quasi- hyperbolic rules. The parameters (discount rates and present bias) used by each economist may differ, which implies different policy recommendations. Then a policy maker has to choose a socially efficient aggregation...

The efficient market hypothesis predicts that asset prices reflect all available information. Recent experimental work found the rational expectation model to outperform the prior information model in contingent claim markets when traders hold homogeneous values, despite the no trade...

Consider a setting in which individual strict preferences need to be aggregated into a social strict preference relation. For two alternatives and an odd number of agents, it follows from May’s Theorem that the majority aggregation rule is the only one satisfying anonymity, neutrality, and...

The rate at which workers switch employers without experiencing a spell of unemployment is one of the most important labor market indicators. However, Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions are hard to measure in widely used matched employer-employee datasets such as those available in the US. We...

The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...

We provide key insights on expectation formation based on the Bloomberg economic survey: around two thirds of professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the annual. Temporally consistent forecasts are not more...

We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...

Researchers and practitioners who use Data Envelopment Analysis often want to incorporate several inputs and outputs in their model to consider as much relevant information as possible. However, too many inputs and outputs can result in the well-known dimensionality problem referred to as the...

This paper documents a comparative application of algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data sets. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey (BTS) data, in particular the KOF manufacturing surveys, which are conducted in both monthly and quarterly frequency,...