We propose a novel copula approach to producing density forecasts of economic aggregates combining models using disaggregate data. Our copula approach is more flexible compared to existing techniques, because it is applicable to any econometric model that produces density forecasts. We construct...

We provide key insights on expectation formation based on the Bloomberg economic survey: around two thirds of professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the annual. Temporally consistent forecasts are not more...

Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation....

In this paper we concern with the decomposition and aggregation of cost efficiencies when input prices vary across decision-making units. In this respect, we first examine the relations among the components of the existing decompositions as well as with other efficiency measures. We also derive...

One goal of government health insurance programs is to improve health, yet little is known empirically about how important such government interventions can be in explaining health transitions. We analyze the child mortality effects of a major health insurance expansion in Costa Rica. In...

Imperfect information aggregation in secondary credit markets has significant consequences for economic cycles. As banks put more weight on mark-to-market gains, they find it optimal to refrain from revealing information about adverse shocks. Consequently, default risk is mispriced, and loan...

Microbial necromass has been increasingly recognized as an important source of soil organic carbon (C). However, how nitrogen (N) addition regulates microbial necromass decomposition and the size of different necromass pools remain poorly understood. Here, via an incubation of 13 C-labeled...

In this paper we investigate probabilistic counters from the perspective of preserving privacy. We use standard, rigid differential privacy notion. The intuition is that the probabilistic counters do not reveal too much information about individuals, but provide only general information about...

Dye aggregation is a typical phenomenon occurring in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs), which causes a decrease in the electron injection efficiency from the photoexcited dye to titanium dioxide (TiO2). As this results in a decrease in the photovoltaic performance, it cannot be ignored in the...

Granulation plays an important role in various manufacturing sectors, including the chemical, pharmaceutical, and agricultural sectors. Computer simulation by coupling a discrete element method (DEM) and a population balance model (PBM) is a promising method for the rational design and operation...

We characterize the response of aggregate output to micro shocks in disaggregated economies with entry, non-constant returns to scale, input-output linkages, and distortions. We decompose output changes into technical and allocative efficiency components, and show that the latter depends on...

This paper estimates the trend inflation of Korea in the framework of an unobserved component model with allowance of outliers and stochastic volatility. The model is estimated in the univariate and the multivariate manner, which considers disaggregate inflation as an indicator of aggregate...

Recent decades have seen advances in using econometric methods to produce more timely and higher-frequency estimates of economic activity at the national level, enabling better tracking of the economy in real time. These advances have not generally been replicated at the sub–national level,...

I propose a model of aggregation of intervals relevant in two contexts: the study of legislative delegation and the study of legal standards of behavior. Six axioms: responsiveness, anonymity, continuity, strategyproofness, and two variants of neutrality are then used to prove several important...

Economic analysts have used trends in total factor productivity (TFP) to evaluate the effectiveness with which economies are utilizing advances in technology. However, this measure is problematic on several different dimensions. First, the idea that it is possible to separate out the relative...

Investigators of social differentials in health outcomes commonly augment incomplete micro data by appending socioeconomic characteristics of residential areas (such as median income in a zip code) to proxy for individual characteristics. However, little empirical attention has been paid to how...

The aim of this note is to interpret estimation of the conventional treatment-effect selection-bias model in econometrics as a method of aggregation and to draw the implications of this interpretation. In addition, the paper notes the connection of this interpretation with an older style of...

We examine aggregation in the neoclassical growth model with aggregate shocks and uninsurable employment risk, as well as related environments. We introduce a Walrasian auctioneer whose job is to report to households all possible state-contingent future prices. Households take these as given...

We measure the aggregate return to all equity investors in various funding rounds of a venture company with the founders' investments valued at their first-round pre-money valuations. We examine 17,242 ventures that had their first funding rounds during 1980 and 2006 and follow them till their...

How do consumers respond to "From" prices advertised by firms that differ from the actual purchase price to be paid? While a low “From” price is likely to draw consumers in, a high one is likely to be closer to the true price thus reflecting a more accurate estimate. It is not clear how the...

We study how the timing of technology adoption through capital accumulation shapes firm-level productivity dynamics and quantify its aggregate implications in a model of heterogeneous firms. Using data on the census of incorporated Italian firms and exploiting the lumpiness of capital...

The Consumer Price Index does not take into account the fact that consumers alter the composition of their purchases in response to changes in relative prices. This substitution effect will cause the CPI to grow faster than the cost of living. This paper presents new estimates showing that this...

Aggregate measures of real GDP growth obtained from the GDP by Industry Accounts often differ from the featured measure of real GDP growth obtained from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). We find that differences in source data account for most of the difference in aggregate real...

Explanations of procyclical productivity play a key role in a variety of business-cycle models. Most of these models, however, explain this procyclicality within a representative-firm paradigm. This procedure is misleading. We decompose aggregate productivity changes into several terms, each of...

This paper presents an (S,s) model for automobile consumption and estimates it using a data set of US households. The model allows for unobserved heterogeneity in both the target level and the band width, takes into account the possibility of a zero desired level, constrains the band to be non...

Standard models of aggregate demand treat money and credit asymmetrically; money is given a special status, while loans, bonds, and other debt instruments are lumped together in a "bond market" and suppressed by Walras' Law. This makes bank liabilities central to the monetary transmission...

How can low consumer spending cause an inefficient recession or recovery? We propose a real theory of aggregate demand shortages that does not rely on nominal rigidities. In our theory, an economy can be demand constrained when, i) productivity in the consumption goods sector can be improved or...

This paper attempts to reconcile the contradictory findings in the debate over school resources and school effectiveness by highlighting the role of aggregation in the presence of omitted variables bias. While data aggregation for well-specified linear models yields unbiased parameter estimates,...

A forecast produced by an econometric model is a weighted aggregate of predetermined variables in the model. In many models the number of predetermined variables used is very large, often exceeding the number of observations. A method is proposed in this paper for testing an econometric model as...

The basic premise of this paper is that understanding aggregate dynamics requires considering that agents are heterogeneous and that they do not adjust continuously to the shocks they perceive. We provide a general characterization of lumpy behavior at the microeconomic level in terms of an...

We present a picture of the labor market, one with large flows of jobs and workers, and matching. We develop a consistent approach to the interaction among those flows and the stocks of unemployed workers and vacant jobs, and to the determination of wages. We estimate the matching function,...

This paper examines the quantitative importance of temporal aggregation bias in distorting parameter estimates and hypothesis tests. Our strategy is to consider two empirical examples in which temporal aggregation bias has the potential to account for results which are widely viewed as being...

This econometric study seeks to determine the most important factors of aggregate demand in Egypt so as to provide insight into how this developing nation can grow economically in the coming years. The Ordinary Least Squares estimation method was used in order to estimate nominal GDP for the...

This paper used cross-sectional aggregation as the inspiration for a model with long-range dependence that arises in actual data. One of the advantages of our model is that it is less brittle than fractionally integrated processes. In particular, we showed that the antipersistent phenomenon is...

In this paper, we show that a concept of aggregation can hold in large network games with linear best replies. Breaking up large networks into smaller subnetworks, which can be replaced by representative players, leads to a coarse-grained description of strategic interactions. This method of...

We investigate how individuals think groups should aggregate members’ ordinal preferences -that is, how they interpret “the will of the people.” In an experiment, we elicit revealed attitudes toward ordinal preference aggregation and classify subjects according to the rules they apparently...

Proper measurement and aggregation of trade costs is of paramount importance for sound academic and policy analysis of the determinants - particularly those of policy - of economic outcomes. The international trade profession has witnessed significant new developments, both on the theoretical...