Cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire face precarious livelihoods. Low farm-gate prices that are a fraction of the world market price compel land-extensive farming practices that perpetuate a cycle of poverty and environmental degradation. This paper seeks to understand the drivers of the low...

Purpose: This study focuses on forecasting the price of the most important export crops of vegetables and fruits in Egypt from 2016 to 2030. Design/methodology/approach: The study applied generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and autoregressive integrated moving...

Sustainable use of land resources is at the core of the bioeconomy, and it is of central importance for development in the coming decades. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals reflect this aspect of development both directly and indirectly. Important global trends, such as a growing...

Die Ukraine und Russland spielen als Exporteure von Agrar- und Ernährungsprodukten eine zentrale Rolle für die globale Ernährungssicherheit. Die Studie von Berndt et al. (2022) untersucht mit globalen Gleichgewichtsmodellen, wie sich der Krieg im Extremfall auf globale Agrarpreise auswirken...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 dramatically disrupted the global supply of crude oil and agricultural commodities. As a consequence, the prices of oil and agricultural commodities increase substantially and many countries face the problem of high food inflation. Against...

COVID-19 has thrown a stark, harsh light on the world’s economy and has had a significant impact on monetary policies worldwide. In China, the economy is entering a new normal, and the effect of monetary policy on agricultural commodity prices has induced noticeable structural changes. The...

This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. Using panel regressions on data from 53 advanced and emerging-market countries, we investigate how factors such as local crop production conditions, the...

We explore how a changing climate has impacted the valuation of corn and soybeans grown in the U.S. Midwest. Earlier literature has found that corn and soybean output is sensitive to weather in a nonlinear manner: yields benefit for moderate rain and temperatures, and generally suffer under...

This article investigates the connections between the prices of biofuels and many traded commodities and other relevant assets in Europe, USA and Brazil. The analysis uses a comprehensive dataset covering price data for 38 traded titles over the period 2003-2020. We utilize the minimum spanning...

In agricultural economics, fluctuations in food prices and the factors affecting these fluctuations have always been an important research topic. From production to delivery to consumers, the supply chain of agricultural products has a dynamic structure with continuous changes. In this dynamic...

The paper develops a novel approach to account for serially dependent extreme price changes under the assumption that the tail distribution follows the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Our approach can 1) detect serial dependence of extreme price changes, and 2) can be applied when...

This paper studies the effect of structural shocks in the crude oil, gasoline, and ethanol markets on U.S. retail food prices while accounting for the change in the U.S. biofuel policies around May 2006. We estimate a structural vector autoregressive model using data on aggregate and...

The growing demand for raw materials for the production of biofuels may lead to an increase in the prices of these raw materials and, due to the shortage of land, to an increase in the prices of other crops. This is due to the fact that the growing demand for raw materials for the production of...

Agriculture is a main source of production of food crops. The food crops are produced, processed, promoted and distributed widely. Productions of these crops are diseased by pant pathogens and several environmental conditions. The market price of the crops decides their supplies and demand. Due...

We show how fat tails in agricultural commodity returns arise endogenously from productivity shocks in a standard macroeconomic model. Using nearly ninety years of data, we show that the eight agricultural commodities in our sample exhibit fat-tailed return distributions. Statistical tests...

Plant-based meat is an innovative and sustainable type of food that has been received with enthusiasm by consumers and investors. It is also a threat for the demand of traditional meat and for those crops used primarily as animal feed. In 2019, 59% of global corn and 83% of global soybean...

The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (CAP) has a long tradition. After World War II, agricultural and food production in Europe was substantially weakened and unable to provide sufficient food for the domestic population. The CAP emerged from this situation, with the objectives...

Biotic factors such as pests create biodiversity effects that increase production risks and decrease land productivity when agriculture becomes more specialized. We show in a Ricardian two-country trade setup that production specialization is incomplete under free trade because of the decrease...

This study aimed to model and forecast the volatility of returns for selected agricultural commodities prices using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity GARCH models in Ethiopia. GARCH family models, specifically GARCH, threshold generalized autoregressive conditional...

In the four decades leading up to World War I, a significant proportion of British aristocrats married daughters of newly rich American business magnates. I provide a quantitative economic analysis of this phenomenon in the deeper context of British aristocratic marriages during the 18th and...