Purpose - The study considers time-varying risk premium in investigating the capability of technical analysis (TA) to predict and outperform a buy-hold strategy in Bitcoin exchange rate returns. Design/methodology/approach - The study tests the technical trading rule of fixed moving average...

One of the most difficult problems analysts and decision-makers may face is how to improve the forecasting and predicting of financial time series. However, several efforts were made to develop more accurate and reliable forecasting methods. The main purpose of this study is to use technical...

Most technical trading strategies use the official closing price for analysis. But what is the effect when the official closing price is subject to market manipulation? This paper answers this question by testing the difference of profitabilities between using the official closing price and the...

This paper introduces a new algorithm for exploiting time-series predictability-based patterns to obtain an abnormal return, or alpha, with respect to a given benchmark asset pricing model. The algorithm proposes a deterministic daily market timing strategy that decides between being fully...

By linking sell-side equity analysts to their deed records and LinkedIn profiles, I show that analysts with higher exposure to negative wealth shocks issue more pessimistic and less accurate forecasts. The effects are stronger when analysts have higher leverage in their homes and face career...

We use the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to study the effects of childcare and household duties on sell-side analysts. The richness of this setting allows us to compare female and male analysts while requiring them to perform the same tasks. We find that female analysts' forecast...

This paper examines whether strategic corporate social responsibility (SCSR) disclosures are value-relevant for investors and analysts in the context of China. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from One Belt One Road (OBOR) theme indices, we construct a rating system of SCSR disclosures...

Despite the mounting evidence that stock misvaluation affects takeover characteristics and outcomes at the deal level, there remains a prolonged debate over whether mispricing drives aggregate industry-level merger activity. We depart from the extant literature and investigate whether stock...

The American stock market passed a critical phase during 2020. The CBOE volatility index had spiked from a little over 20 to a little over 50 and returned flat to 16% year on year basis. This paper presents a novel model to measure the engagements of retailer trading through public perception...

We examine the value of analyst recommendations across 45 countries and 3.8 million firm-month observations from 1994 to 2019. Recommendation-based portfolio strategies lead to highly significant (insignificant) abnormal returns in international markets (in the U.S.). In line with...

The financial statements are used for financial analysis to analyze the performance of an organization for a specific period. This research aimed to analyze the financial stamen of an organization for analyzing its financial performance. The report had chosen ADNOC as the case organization. The...

The use of quantitative tools to analyse the huge amount of qualitative information has been acquiring increasing importance. Market participants and, of course, Central Banks have been involved in this trend. The vast majority of qualitative data can be qualified as non-structured and refers...

We examine the effect of the common ownership relation between brokerage houses and the firms covered by their analysts (referred to as co-owned brokerage houses, co-owned firms, and connected analysts, respectively) on analyst forecast performance. Common ownership can help the connected...

In this research I empirically study the effects of information acquisition by investors or traders on analysts' forecast bias. Based on the theoretical literature on sell-side analysts, I argue that forecast bias is correlated to investors' information gathering, in two opposite directions. On...

I empirically study how confirmatory bias works for strong and contradictory signals using data on sell-side analysts. I first model an agent who is prone to confirmatory bias and whose task is to value a stock based on a signal, and introduce the effects of the signal strength by relaxing Rabin...

There is a debate on whether company visits, an important channel of analysts’ information acquisition, should be regulated similar to management disclosure under Regulation Fair Disclosure. Exploiting a Shenzhen Stock Exchange regulation, this study examines the impact of forcing the timely...

The aim of our model is to leverage recurrent neural networks to predict the trends of stocks traded on India’s National Stock Exchange. By integrating an analysis of the stock’s historic price, and the contemporary market sentiment of the parent company, we endeavored to build a model that...

We examine whether financial analysts cater to investors’ beliefs, using the market liberalization (Stock Connect) programs in China as a shock to investor beliefs. We find that analysts become less optimistic in their recommendations following the introduction of less optimistic investors...

We show that the magnitude of the value premium over 1968-2018 is conditional on states of aggregate market-wide misvaluation. The value premium is 3.42% per month following market-wide undervaluation and 1.70% per month following market-wide overvaluation. When the aggregate market is neither...

We offer a parsimonious index at the individual analyst level to measure the extent to which an analyst relies on earnings and long-term growth forecasts in her advice. Using this index, we evaluate the contribution of earnings and growth forecasts to the investment value of analysts’ stock...

By introducing the implementation of the Key Audit Matters (KAM) Disclosure Standards for China’s companies cross-listed in Hong Kong in 2017, we present evidence that KAM disclosure reduces analysts’ company visits, which is an important channel of information acquisition. The decreasing...

This paper addresses the problem of predicting the stock price using the high frequency data based on a machine learning approach. We study two things in this paper (1) comparison of the prediction performance among selected function classes with given look-back parameter in terms of the...

Two ex-ante variables are introduced to characterize the analysts’ biased behavior, namely the analysts’ disagreement and self-selection in analysts’ coverage. The study investigates the impact of the analysts’ disagreement and self-selection on the stock returns. A theoretical analysis...

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We first show analyst forecasts outperform statistical forecasts at short-horizons, but underperform at longer horizons. We next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts...

Financial variables such as cash flow and cash stocks are robust and quantitatively important explanatory variables for investment at the firm-level. A large body of recent empirical work attributes these findings to capital market imperfections. This interpretation is controversial, however,...

This paper examines the practice of hiring financial analysts as investor relations officers (IRO). We posit that analysts-turned-IROs (AIROs) have a competitive advantage in communicating with investors, thereby lowering the effort expended by the investment community to process corporate...

Aim/purpose - The paper has two objectives. The first is to examine the profitability of applying investment strategies based on "buy" and "sell" recommendations issued by stock market analysts. The second objective is to validate that analysts who issue a recommendation may not be impartial...

This study explores the redundancy of the value premium by conducting a Fourier analysis. The results illustrate periodicity in the value premium and merges the Adaptive Market Hypothesis with the Efficient Market hypothesis. The value premium is considered to be redundant due to structural...

This paper uses R/S analysis and fractional integration techniques to examine the persistence of two sets of 12 ESG and conventional stock price indices from the MSCI database over the period 2007-2020 for a large number of both developed and emerging markets. Both sets of results imply that...

Recent value factor underperformance has called into question whether the value factor payoff is cyclically low, or if there are more structural challenges. We use a new approach to explore a link between the well-known macroeconomic exposures of traditional asset classes and those of value...

The increasing number of discretionary stock halts, has attracted the attention of regulatory authorities and scholars. They have also become a significant obstacle to the internationalization of China's capital market. This article systematically examines the impact of discretionary halts on...

Statistical learning models have profoundly changed the rules of trading on the stock exchange. Quantitative analysts try to utilise them predict potential profits and risks in a better manner. However, the available studies are mostly focused on testing the increasingly complex machine learning...

Technological progress in recent years has made new methods available for making forecasts in a variety of areas. We examine the success of ex-ante stock market forecasts of three major stock market indices, i.e., the German Stock Market Index (DAX), the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI), and the...

We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals' beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to...