In this paper, we analyse the effects on the economies of the European Union and the rest of the world, of several austerity policies implemented by the Southern European countries, i.e., Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. In particular, we simulate the reduction in one point in the government...

Das Europäische System der Zentralbanken (ESZB) folgt in erster Linie dem Ziel der Preisstabilität. Darüber hinaus kann es weitere Ziele anstreben. Genauer gesagt kann sogar die Pflicht bestehen, eine so genannte mehrdimensionale nicht-neutrale Geldpolitik umzusetzen. Denn laut Vertrag über...

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on macro price divergence in China. We use the time-varying parameter vector auto regressive model with latent thresholds (LT-TVP-VAR) to examine the nonlinear causality relationship. Our findings suggest when the EPU rises,...

Theoretical analysis, empirical development and case studies show that room to manoeuvre stabilising macroeconomic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in the years 2020 and 2021 were fundamentally different in the Global South and Global North. The latter used extensive discretionary fiscal and...

Many observers see the Covid-19 crisis as marking a major shift in neoliberal globalization. We analyze this question from the perspective of South Africa. We argue that the 2020 crisis has not precipitated a major shift as much as it has rapidly accelerated trends which were already under way...

This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the performance of the World Bank Group's support to Indonesia between FY 2013 and FY23. The evaluation will focus on the Bank Group's contribution to help Indonesia tackle key long-term development challenges and position the country toward its...

The new political context emerging from the May 2024 elections provides a unique opportunity for South Africa. The alignment of economic and political incentives, in the sense that improving the economy is essential for gaining political power, offers a platform to launch a decisive...

In tomorrow's world, the winners will inevitably be those who possess the knowledge to innovate and adapt to increasingly rapid technological advancements. In contrast, those who lack this knowledge will fall behind. There is consensus among policymakers that a well-functioning education system...

The new political context emerging from the May 2024 elections provides a unique opportunity for South Africa. The alignment of economic and political incentives, in the sense that improving the economy is essential for gaining political power, offers a platform to launch a decisive...

Malawi's economic recovery remains fragile due to the slow implementation of macroeconomic adjustment reforms and a series of recent shocks. Food insecurity remains a major concern due to weak harvests from 2022 to 2024 and the likelihood of a challenging 2024-25 season. Inflation is gradually...

The new political context emerging from the May 2024 elections provides a unique opportunity for South Africa. The alignment of economic and political incentives, in the sense that improving the economy is essential for gaining political power, offers a platform to launch a decisive...

The new political context emerging from the May 2024 elections provides a unique opportunity for South Africa. The alignment of economic and political incentives, in the sense that improving the economy is essential for gaining political power, offers a platform to launch a decisive...

The economy is estimated to have grown by 2.6 percent in 2024, surpassing expectations due to an unexpected surge in activity but the recovery continued to lag behind peers. The latest gross domestic product (GDP) release showed that growth picked up at 3.0 percent year-on-year in 2024 Q3. In Q3...

November economic activity data suggests gradual growth, driven by strong external demand, particularly for goods exports and tourism, as well as a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal stimulus. While tourism remained a key growth driver, with a notable increase in...

Industrial production increased in December 2024. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased from 1.6 percent (m/m, SA) in November to 2.1 percent (m/m, SA) in December 2024, as businesses ramped up production to meet year-end consumer demand. The improvement is due to the increased...

Thailand's economy grew by 3.2 percent year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by a rebound in public investment and strong electronics exports, while private consumption saw a modest boost from fiscal stimulus. High-frequency indicators in January suggest continued expansion, supported by strong goods...

South Sudan's socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks. Even before the oil shock of early 2024, per capita gross domestic product had dropped by 18 percent...

El enfoque de este Memorando Económico de País (CEM) es revisar opciones clave de política y reforma a fin de que Guinea Ecuatorial siente las bases para un crecimiento renovado, diversificado y más inclusivo. De este modo, el CEM busca contribuir a las agendas de desarrollo y...

Over the past decades, India has developed at a scale and pace that few would have thought possible. From 2000 to today, in real terms, the economy has grown nearly four-fold, and GDP per capita has almost tripled. Because India grew faster than the rest of the world, its share in the global...

Liberia is one of the poorest countries, ranking 180th out of the 190 countries in the World Bank's development database. Based on the national poverty line, 59 percent of Liberians were poor in 2016, the latest year for which household survey data is available. According to World Bank...

La historia reciente de Perú presenta éxitos notables. Entre 2002 y 2013, el país creció un 6,1 por ciento, casi el doble del promedio regional. Luego de reformas clave para promover la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas del marco macro-fiscal en la década de 1990, Perú aprovechó un...

This report aims to help policymakers identify key growth opportunities and offers recommendations for building the capabilities needed to realize them. Chapter 1 analyzes growth trends across three key periods, highlighting factors that could accelerate or hinder future progress. Chapter 2...

Purpose This study aims to analyse the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the return of growth/value and small/large-cap stocks during expansionary and recessionary periods across a conditional distribution. Design/methodology/approach The authors selected a sample covering the...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

This study investigates the impact of labor outsourcing on innovation, using manually collected data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022. The results indicate that labor outsourcing significantly enhances firms' innovation level. This relationship is primarily driven by...

Since the bursting of China's real-estate bubble in mid-2021, there has been a growing concern that the Chinese economy could end up like that of Japan in the early 1990s. Some structural patterns are strikingly similar: low private consumption over a long period, especially when compared to the...

Thailand's economic performance remained mixed in March with stable private consumption and robust exports offset by weak private investment amid rising uncertainty. While fiscal stimulus supported consumption, softening consumer confidence and weak manufacturing production pose risks to the...

In 2024, Libya's economic performance reflects the persistent challenges of hydrocarbon dependency compared against nascent signs of broader recovery. The economy recorded a contraction of 0.6 percent for the year, driven primarily by a decline in oil GDP of 6 percent amid political and...

The global economic context improved modestly in 2024, supported by easing inflation and a rebound in global trade. Kenya's economy has slowed despite several improving macroeconomic indicators. The external sector showed improvement, driven by recovering exports and rising financial inflows. A...

Mongolia's economy is projected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2025, driven by a surge in copper production and a gradual recovery in the agriculture sector. While the medium-term growth outlook remains stable, significant risks and challenges remain, including the indirect effects of global trade...

Lebanon's economic outlook for 2025 is shaped by a fragile stabilization in the political and security environment. This follows the end of the conflict and the resolution of a two year political paralysis with the election of a president and the formation of a reform-oriented government. While...

The Yemen Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Yemen. While domestic tensions persist, with the Houthi movement continuing to blockade the Internationally Recognized...

This special focus chapter analyzes the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fostering economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. In doing so, the principal focus of the chapter is on fiscal multipliers, which measure the effect of changes in government spending or revenue on the...

In 2024, the Lao economy grew by 4.1 percent, driven primarily by strong performance in the services sector, followed by electricity generation, mining, agriculture, and some manufacturing. Services expanded by an estimated 5 percent. Foreign tourist arrivals rose by 21 percent alongside...

The Philippines Economic Update (PEU) summarizes key economic and social developments, important policy changes, and the evolution of external conditions over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank analyses, situating them in the context of the country's long-term...

L'économie tunisienne a progressé de 1.4 % en 2024 après une croissance nulle en 2023 et elle s'écarte de celle de ses voisins d'Afrique du Nord, avec un produit intérieur brut (PIB) inférieur à son niveau d'avant la pandémie en 2024. L'économie continue de fonctionner dans un...

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's...

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's...

In this paper, we propose and analyse four scenarios of a second Trump administration's economic policy and its impact on Europe, ranging all the way from moderate tariffs to full trade war, a full multilateral breakdown with the US leaving the IMF down to a more cooperative exchange rate...