Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt steht kurz vor einem grundlegenden Umbruch. Sind die Erwerbspersonenzahlen in den letzten Jahrzehnten kontinuierlich gestiegen, werden sie mit dem Übergang der geburtenstarken Jahrgänge der Babyboomer in den Ruhestand aller Voraussicht nach deutlich einbrechen. Wie...

Der demographische Wandel stellt unsere Gesellschaft vor große Herausforderungen. Gleichzeitig macht ein Rückblick auf die vergangene Dekade im deutschen Arbeitsmarkt deutlich, dass der Aufbau zusätzlicher Beschäftigung durch eine verbesserte Erwerbsintegration ein bedeutsamer Schlüssel zur...

Das Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB) und das Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) erstellen in Zusammenarbeit mit der Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) seit 2010 im zweijährigen Turnus eine Basisprojektion zur langfristigen Entwicklung des...

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the division of labour among parents of school-aged children in two-parent opposite-gender families. In line with existing evidence, we find that mothers' paid work took a larger hit than that of fathers, and...

Declining hours of work per worker in conjunction with a growing work force may give rise to fluctuations between growth regimes. This is shown in an overlapping generations model with two-period lived individuals endowed with Boppart-Krusell preferences (Boppart and Krusell (2020)). On the...

Does the culture in which a woman grows up influence her labor market decisions once she has had a child? And to what extent can exposure to a different cultural group in adulthood shape maternal labor supply? To address these questions, we exploit the setting of the German reunification. A...

We study the effects of two exogenous modificationsin the Swedish pension system application formnudgingindividuals towards a fixed-term payout.Meanwhile, the set of available options and the default option-life annuity -were unchanged during the period under study. We examine the effects on...

This paper calculates the change in optimal labor supply and total family welfare resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). We estimate labor supply elasticities for married families in the Current Population Survey from 2015 to 2017, using a joint family utility model. These...

This paper studies the extent to which increases in bank credit supply available for small and medium firms can foster formal employment in Mexico. We use a detailed dataset containing loan-level information for all loans extended by commercial banks to private firms in Mexico during the...

This paper studies the elimination of traditional pensions and subsequent adoption of 401(k) plans by U.S. employers. Using thousands of firm-level natural experiments, it shows that unexpected losses in future compensation engendered by pension plan transitions induce premature retirement for...

The effects of social distancing measures on income distributions and aggregate variables are examined with an off-the-shelf heterogeneousagent incomplete-market model. The model shows that social distancing measures, which limit households’ labor supply, can decrease the labor supply of...

Exploiting a quasi-natural experiment and using administrative data, we examine the effects of the return-to-work policies' clawback regime in Disability Insurance (DI) programs on beneficiaries' labor supply decisions, allowing them to collect reduced DI payments while working. We compare two...

We analyze the relationship between temporal flexibility at work (i.e., the ability to vary or change the time of beginning or ending work) and the motherhood wage gap of working parents, in the US. To that end, we first characterize temporal flexibility at work using the 2017-2018 Leave and Job...

This paper analyses the first-round effects of hypothetical minimum wage increases on social outcomes in 21 EU countries with a statutory national minimum wage based on a microsimulation approach using EUROMOD. The methodological challenges related to the use of available EU household survey...

Little is known yet about the impact of the COVID crisis on household income and jobs in absence of real time information on these variables. A recent literature strand has sought to overcome data limitations to assess the distributional impact of policy measures taken in the EU using various...

Labor productivity is more procyclical in OECD countries with lower employment volatility. To capture this new stylized fact, we propose a business cycle model with employment adjustment costs, variable hours and labor effort. We show that, in our model with variable effort, greater labor market...

Die vorliegende Studie ist der Frage gewidmet, wie sich verschiedene demografische, sozioökonomische und persönliche Faktoren auf die Diskrepanz zwischen der tatsächlichen und der gewünschten wöchentlichen Arbeitszeit eines Individuums auswirken. Die Untersuchung von Arbeitszeitdiskrepanzen...

In diesem Report zeigen wir die Simulation verschiedener Varianten eines Bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens (BGE) in Deutschland. Wir greifen dafür auf eine Standardmethode der Evaluation von Reformvorschlägen im Steuer- und Transfersystem zurück -- die Mikrosimulation. Es gibt zahlreiche...

To what degree can labor reallocation mitigate the economic consequences of weather-driven agricultural productivity shocks? I estimate that temperature-driven reductions in the demand for agricultural labor in India are associated with increases in non-agricultural employment. This suggests...

In July 2005, Switzerland introduced the first federal paid maternity leave mandate, offering 14 weeks of leave with 80% of pre-birth earnings. We study the mandate's impact on women's employment and earnings around the birth of their first child, as well as on their subsequent fertility by...

The Income Maintenance Experiments have received renewed attention due to growing international interest in a Basic Income. Proponents viewed a Negative Income Tax as a replacement for traditional welfare with stronger work incentives and reduced poverty. However, existing labor supply estimates...

This paper shows that increasing the normal retirement age and introducing pension deductions for retirement before normal retirement age in Germany did not prolong employment of older men. The reason for this surprising result is that employers encouraged their employees to use the bridge...

The aim of this study is to analyze redistribution within the Austrian tax-benefit system. In this work we take a comprehensive view and include not only direct taxation and cash benefits, but also indirect taxes and in-kind transfers. We look at two kinds of redistribution: between the...

We decompose permanent earnings risk into contributions from hours and wage shocks. To distinguish between hours shocks, modeled as innovations to the marginal disutility of work, and labor supply reactions to wage shocks we formulate a life-cycle model of consumption and labor supply. Both...

We investigate the role played by the credit supply shock across the business cycle in the U.S. over the period 1973 - 2018. We estimate a nonlinear VAR including nominal, real, monetary, and financial variables. According to our results, a credit supply shock triggers asymmetric and negative...

This paper aims to study the evolution in the age composition of males' employment in the aftermath of the public sector downsizing in the 1990s -during the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Policies - and the new labor law in 2003. This answers the question of whether young (15-29) and...

The U.S. labor market will be buffeted by major changes in the next few decades, such as an aging population, automation that displaces workers and requires skill adjustments, and increases in independent or informal work and "fissured" workplaces. These forces will likely raise worker...

This paper examines the case for randomized controlled trials in economics. I revisit my previous paper "Randomization and Social Policy Evaluation" and update its message. I present a brief summary of the history of randomization in economics. I identify two waves of enthusiasm for the method...

Labor market opportunities and wages may be unfair for various reasons, and how workers respond to different types of unfairness can have major economic consequences. Using an online labor platform, where workers engage in an individual task for a piece-rate wage, we investigate the causal...

Paid parental leave schemes have been shown to increase women's employment rates but decrease their wages in case of extended leave durations. In view of these potential trade-offs, many countries are discussing the optimal design of parental leave policies. We analyze the impact of a major...

This paper analyses the impact of the implementation of a child tax credit in Austria in 2019, not only on micro, but also on macro level by using a dynamic scoring methodology. First, we assess the fiscal and distributional impact of this reform using the microsimulation model EUROMOD. Second,...

We analyze the effects of substitutability of social incentives on the labor supply of gigworkers (N=944) in a natural field experiment. In our treatments, we vary the proportion of the worker's wage that is donated to a social cause. Our experimental design allows us to observe the decision to...

Female labour force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available...

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a sudden and drastic impact on labour supply and output In Ireland. As the Irish government responds, a key question is how covid-19 will impact people and places differently. There is considerable uncertainty around the implications of social distancing measures...

We study the effects of public pension systems on the retirement timing of older workers and, in turn, the health consequences of delaying retirement by those workers. Causal inference relies on a social security reform in Israel that shifted payments from husbands to their (non-working) wives,...

We use Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey to explore the labor market impacts of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Specifically, we adopt a unique identification strategy to examine the heterogeneous causal effects of the COVID-19 economic shutdown by governments on hours worked across the...

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it provides a comprehensive assessment of the financial cost informal workers would incur if they entered formal employment in five Latin American countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. Then, it analyzes the extent to which...