For decades, climate economists and policymakers have favored market-driven solutions with minimal government intervention, advocating carbon pricing as the primary climate policy instrument. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), enacted in 2022, represents a fundamental departure from this...

This paper proposes that the South African Reserve Bank should pursue a 3% inflation target, instead of the current 4.5% midpoint of a 3%-to-6% target range. Doing so may also result in lower inflation volatility, thereby reducing nominal exchange rate risk for investment and trade, and may thus...

The traditional approach to monetary policy, which relied on one instrument to achieve a single goal, has proven ineffective during recent periods of global instability. In response to the challenges that this traditional framework could not address, non-standard monetary policy instruments have...

The notion of a nation-specific inflation trauma among the German population is ubiquitous in the public debate in Germany and beyond. According to a widespread reading of history because of its experience with hyperinflation in 1923, the Germans not only fear rising prices but favor a...

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's...

This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's...

This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB's monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of...

This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal...

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed under the Biden administration in August 2022, is the biggest US climate bill to date. Its focus on subsidy-driven decarbonization incentives marks a potential turning point in US industrial policy and might prevent its repeal under the upcoming Trump...

This paper develops a novel conflict inflation model to unify the analysis of stable and explosive inflation dynamics, addressing a central theoretical divide in the literature. After providing explicit foundations for wage and price setting behaviour, it is shown that inflation expectations...

As inflation targeting (IT) turns 35, it has become a key institutional monetary framework by central banks. Yet, this paper shows that stark differences exist among inflation targeting countries in the conduct of monetary policy. Behind such heterogeneity, the legacy of a high inflation history...

Using individual-level survey data for both advanced economies and emerging markets spanning over 45 years for 42 countries, we show that cohorts who have had higher exposure to past inflationary episodes (levels, as well as to more persistent or to more volatile inflation), systematically...

This paper empirically analyzes the key drivers of inflation in Kazakhstan by differentiating between demand and supply-driven factors contributing to headline inflation. Given that Kazakhstan is highly sensitive to adverse external fluctuations (due to its economic structure), our empirical...

In the wake of the global energy crisis, many European countries used energy price controls to fight inflation and to stabilize the economy. Despite its wide adoption, many economists remained skeptical. In this paper, we argue that price controls should be part of the policy toolbox to respond...

We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in 10 countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring unit prices within narrowly...

This paper considers the role of fiscal policy in New Zealand's macroeconomic stabilisation. New Zealand's macroeconomic framework is characterised by an institutional arrangement whereby monetary policy has the primary responsibility for macroeconomic stabilisation. In contrast, fiscal policy...

This note develops an econometric model of inflation dynamics to assess recent developments. We find that most of the rapid decline in price pressures achieved in 2023 owes to the normalization of supply chains. With supply-chain disruptions now largely resolved, future progress toward...

Elevated inflation can threaten the credibility of central banks and increase the risk that inflation expectations do not remain anchored. Wage-price spirals might develop in such an environment, and high inflation could become entrenched. We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral...

Industrial policies greening the economy aim to accelerate the transition to net zero. We show that the United States (US) Inflation Reduction Act improved the supply of climate finance globally. Using granular data on global investment funds, we identify a novel international spillover channel...

We show that sacrifice ratios associated with announcements of the most likely course of monetary policy are lower when the implementation date is further out into the future in the basic New Keynesian framework. This is not due to forward guidance puzzle effects and holds even when agents’...

We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are...

A salient feature of the post-COVID inflation surge is that economic activity has remained resilient despite unfavorable supply-side developments. We develop a macroeconomic model with nonlinear price and wage Phillips curves, endogenous intrinsic indexation and an unobserved components...

This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank's profit and loss...