Aufbauend auf der Vorjahresstudie (Matthes, 2024a) führt das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) mit diesem Report das IW-Monitoring von potenziell kritischen Importabhängigkeiten der deutschen Wirtschaft von China fort. Unter mehr als 14.300 8-Steller-Warengruppen finden sich aktuell nur...

Die österreichische Außenwirtschaft ist ein zentraler Motor des wirtschaftlichen Wachstums. Dieser Motor ist jedoch zunehmend ins Stottern geraten. Gründe dafür sind - neben innerstaatlichen Faktoren - wachsende geopolitische Unsicherheiten und Krisen, die schwächelnde deutsche...

The introduction of the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2018 created conditions that could raise the cost of trading services with the EU, especially where cross-border transfers of personal data are required. This paper examines whether the GDPR has truly affected trade in...

The introduction of the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) in 2018 created conditions that could raise the cost of trading services with the EU, especially where cross-border transfers of personal data are required. This paper examines whether the GDPR has truly affected trade in...

Ziel dieser Studie ist es zum einen, auf dem Konzept der Pfadabhängigkeit und der ökonomischen Komplexität aufbauend, die langfristigen und gegenwärtigen Entwicklungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft zu beleuchten. Welche Ökonomien konnten in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten erfolgreich...

The study investigates the implementation of trade routes and their impact on the regional economic integration of Central and South Asia. It uses three indices, the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), Similarity Index (SI), and Trade Diversification Index (TDI), to evaluate the level of regional...

Foreign trade is a major factor in a country's economic development since it facilitates the integration of the national economy into the global system by granting access to foreign resources, technologies, and markets. In the context of globalisation, economic processes are constantly changing,...

Ziel dieser Studie ist es zum einen, auf dem Konzept der Pfadabhängigkeit und der ökonomischen Komplexität aufbauend, die langfristigen und gegenwärtigen Entwicklungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft zu beleuchten. Welche Ökonomien konnten in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten erfolgreich...

Die deutschen Importabhängigkeiten von China sind in der Gesamtschau im Jahr 2023 trotz gewisser Veränderungen auf ähnlichem Niveau geblieben wie im Vorjahr. Damit lässt sich nur in Ansätzen ein importseitiges De-Risking erkennen. Das zeigt das IW-Monitoring von industrienahen...

This study examines the multiplicity effects of structural economic vulnerability (SEV), institutions, real exchange rate and complementarity trade structures on intra-WAMZ trade. The modified gravity model based on Poisson pseudomaximum-likelihood (PPML) estimation technique is utilised to...

We employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of digitalization on global trade patterns. Five trends are modelled: (i) adoption of artificial intelligence which raises productivity growth;(ii) digitalization reducing trade costs,...

In this paper, we examine the question of how trade drives educational attainment in a cross-country panel setting. If a country experience a positive demand shock for exports or a negative supply shock for imports that is intensive in educated labor, the demand for education is expected to...

In diesem Report wird untersucht, ob China mit seinen Exporten immer mehr in diejenigen Branchen vordringt, in denen die deutsche Wirtschaft ihre Stärken hat. Um dieser Frage nachzugehen, werden die Veränderungen der Anteile Chinas und Deutschlands an den EU-Importen im Zeitraum 2000 bis 2022...

Technologien, die für die CO2-neutrale Wirtschaft benötigt werden, sind bereits heute für den Klimaschutz wie für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung von zentraler Bedeutung. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob Deutschland Gefahr läuft, durch eine zu langsame Energiewende...

Existing literature found both positive and negative relationship between geographical diversification and economic performance. Our research helps reconcile such contradictory results, and stresses that such conflict is associated with relatedness between export markets. Using China’s custom...

Processing trade contributed greatly to China’s economic growth. The total value of China’s processing trade was US $1.7 billion during the initial period of reform and opening up, and reached US $1.2 trillion in 2015. However, the proportion of processing trade in China’s trade volume has...

Kyrgyzstan economy have undergone transition from a different economic system in the 1990s until now. For stimulating a diversified long-run growth in Kyrgyzstan, the region needs to overcome spatial fragmentation by integrating the regions for economic development translating into national...

We develop a dynamic multi-country Ricardian trade model with aggregate uncertainty, where countries trade goods and assets, leading to trade imbalances. We introduce a method for computing counterfactuals in this setting without specifying the stochastic process of shocks or solving for asset...

In recent decades, China has risen to become Germany’s most important trading partner for international trade in goods. Has Germany become too dependent from trade with China? An analysis using direct and indirect value-added linkages along the supply chain shows that China plays an important,...

Customs data reveal heterogeneity and granularity of relationships among buyers and sellers. A key insight is how more exports to a destination break down into more firms selling there and more buyers per exporter. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of firm-to-firm matching...

Customs data reveal heterogeneity and granularity of relationships among buyers and sellers. A key insight is how more exports to a destination break down into more firms selling there and more buyers per exporter. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of firm-to-firm matching that...

On the eve of its 60th anniversary, the gravity model of trade is a "celebrity", due to its intuitive appeal, solid theoretical foundations, and remarkable empirical success. Yet, many economists still view gravity simply as an intuitive but naive reduced-form estimating equation and apply it...

I develop a model of firm-to-firm search and matching to show that the impact of falling trade costs on firm sourcing decisions and consumer welfare depends on the relative size of search externalities in domestic and international markets. These externalities can be positive if firms share...

This paper links the US fiscal condition to the common variations in risk premia driving global risky asset prices. I find that deteriorations in the US fiscal condition i) coincide with elevated levels of global risk premia and ii) predict higher future global equity returns at short, medium...