The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) co-hosted a research conference on "The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates" on 28-29 August 2017 in Hong Kong. The event was the wrap-up conference of a research programme of the BIS Representative...

The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 confirmed the vital importance of advancing our understanding of macrofinancial linkages, the two-way interactions between the real economy and the financial sector. The crisis was a bitter reminder of how sharp fluctuations in asset prices, credit and...

We empirically analyze how bank lending reacts to monetary policy in the presence of global financial flows. Employing a unique and novel dataset of the funding modes and currency composition of the full population of Norwegian banks in structurally identified regressions, we show that the...

This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast exchange market pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is...

Wirkt sich der demographische Wandel auf die internationalen Kapitalbewegungen aus? Für die Analyse dieser Frage wird zunächst untersucht, welchen Einfluss die Verschiebung der Bevölkerungsaltersstruktur auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Ersparnis und Investition hat. Anhand eines Modells der...

Der Europäische Rat entscheidet 1998, welche Länder an der 1999 beginnenden Währungsunion teilnehmen werden. Sechs Jahre nach der Unterzeichnung der Maastricht-Verträge steht dem Konvergenzfortschritt bei der Preis- und Zinsentwicklung eine unzureichende Konvergenz bei der Finanzlage der...

The increase in central bank transparency was one of the main developments in central banking in the last two decades. This leads to the question of which effect central bank transparency has on the volatility of exchange rates. According to theoretical considerations, more information could...

One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called "foreign exchange rate determination puzzle". We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The...

In the last decades, many developing countries abandoned their existing policy regimes and adopted inflation targeting (IT) by which they aimed to control inflation through the use of policy interest rates. During the period before the crisis, most of these countries experienced large...

This paper highlights the relationship between foreign exchange rate fluctuations and firms' export market dynamics using a Chinese firm-level production data and a firm-level trade data over the period of 2000-2006. The author adopts a discrete-time survival model in his empirical investigation...

The classical dichotomy predicts that all of the time-series variance in the aggregate real exchange rate is accounted for by non-traded goods in the consumer price index (CPI) basket because traded goods obey the Law of One Price. In stark contrast, Engel (1999) claimed the opposite: that...

Previous assessments of nominal exchange rate determination, following Meese and Rogoff (1983) have focused upon a narrow set of models. Cheung et al. (2005) augmented the usual suspects with productivity based models, and "behavioral equilibrium exchange rate" models, and assessed performance...

In this companion paper to Broll and Mukherjee (2017), we empirically analyse how exchange rate volatilities affect firms optimal production and exporting decisions. The firms elasticity of risk aversion determines the direction of the impact of exchange rate risk on exports. Based on a flexible...

This study examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing...

Is it common for central banks to intervene in foreign exchange markets in order to influence exchange rates? And if so, is it effective? From a German perspective, these questions seem surprising, since the European Central Bank (ECB) does not intervene in foreign exchange markets-rather, it...

This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps. First, the exchange rate risk premium, the unobserved...

This paper estimates the role of policy and exchange rate uncertainty shocks for EU countries' exports to the world economy. We examine the performance of the four biggest economies, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty in exports to some of the...

For a long time, abundant natural resources brought Iceland a high and volatile real exchange rate with adverse effects on manufacturing and services. During 2003-2008, another national treasure, the sovereign's AAA rating, was used by privatized banks to attract foreign capital, elevating the...

This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend explains a substantial share of UK inflation...

We show that exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices varies not only across countries, but also over time. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate, use of foreign currency invoicing, and openness - in...

The objective of this article is to derive a simple dynamic macroeconomic model of an open economy to show how an economy as a dynamic system can work. The proposed model is resulted from the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. Unlike the Mundell-Fleming model, we introduce a continuous dynamic...

This paper highlights the relationship between foreign exchange rate fluctuations and firms’ export market dynamics using a Chinese firm-level production data and a firm-level trade data over the period of 2000–2006. This study adopts a discrete-time survival model in our empirical...

The long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate have for a long time puzzled economists. Recent models built on imperfect knowledge economics seem to provide a theoretical explanation for this persistence. Empirical results, based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model,...

A theory-consistent CVAR scenario describes a set of testable regularieties one should expect to see in the data if the basic assumptions of the theoretical model are empirically valid. Using this method, the paper demonstrates that all basic assumptions about the shock structure and...

This paper estimates the role of policy and exchange rate uncertainty shocks for EU countries' exports to the world economy. We examine the performance of the four biggest economies, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty in ex-ports to some of the...

The main goal of this research is to construct and assess forecast intervals for monthly US/EURO foreign exchange rate. The point forecasts used to build the intervals are based on a vector autoregression (VAR model) and on a Bayesian VAR model for data starting with the first month of 1999. The...

The optimal currency for a country is an important topic. While it is difficult to identify the best option overall, for all stakeholders and including political considerations, it is easier to answer the more limited question of the title: Which currency is best for business in a small country?...

By the Treaty of Accession to the EU, Romania opted for the euro adoption. According to the Maastricht Treaty, since 2014 Romania has fulfilled the nominal convergence criteria, thus becoming apt to adopt the euro. But a careful analysis of the reality and the lessons learnt from the Euro Area...

There is empirical evidence for a time-varying relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Such a relationship with time-varying coefficients can be estimated by a Kalman filter model. A Kalman filter estimates the coefficients recursively depending on the prediction error of the...

We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada. First, we develop two new foreign activity measures (FAMs), which add new components to the FAM currently used at the Bank...