Purpose - The study investigates how the 2017 Gulf crisis reshaped Qatari-Turkish relations, transforming them from cordial cooperation into a robust strategic alliance. It examines the political, military, and economic implications of Turkey'ssupport for Qatar during the blockade, and how this...

In this paper, we provide systematic evidence in support of the long-standing hypothesis that taxation was an important driver of the French Revolution. We first document that areas with heavier taxes experienced more riots between 1750 and 1789 and voiced more complaints against taxation in the...

How do new leaders rebuild the state after a civil war in which the central government disintegrates, and the army is defeated? The end of the Porfirian regime and dissolution of the army in 1914 during the Mexican revolution gave way to armed conflict between three factions: Constitucionalista,...

The revolution of deregulation that swept national markets with particular force in the Americas was followed by the rise of complex and diverse regulatory institutions. Mexico was the poster child of governance by regulators as, in the 2000s and 2010s, its governing being used, in the energy...

We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax - a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts...

Understanding the consequences and recovery for countries hit by adverse national events such as political crises is central to understanding long-run development dynamics. Utilizing the Coleman boat framework, we develop a micro-foundation based theoretical framework grounded in public choice...

We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax - a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts...

This study presents fresh evidence on the impact of social unrest on the subjective well-being of approximately 400,000 individuals worldwide from 1981 to 2022. Utilizing data from a media reports platform allows us to capture the effects of unrest with a lag of about one month, as opposed to...

The existential catastrophe faced by the population of the Gaza Strip currently looms large in the foreign policy and security debates. The plight of civilians there is par­ticularly acute. Yet, severe crises persist elsewhere too - from Ukraine and Sudan to Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of...

We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world-Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)-affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not...

This paper revisits the standard explanations of the violent Chilean protests of late 2019, and in particular their exclusive focus on the role of inequality, which in fact had been falling prior to the emergence of unrest. Instead, we suggest that blame may lie in a crisis of trust in...

It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly...

This study shows that civilians' behavior can be severely affected by territorial control by an insurgent group, and that these effects can persist after the government regains control and the occupation ends. I consider a framework of civilian behavior under insurgent rule, where civilians have...

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the “defund the police” movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

We study the relationship between inequality and social instability. While the argument that inequality can be damaging for the cohesion of a society is well established, the empirical evidence is mixed. We use a novel approach to isolate the causal relationship running from inequality to social...

War has raged in Sudan since April 2023 following fundamental changes in the political balance of power in recent years. The previously dominant security sector is deeply divided and the once weakly organised civil society has mobilised. Competition within the security sector made it possible to...

This paper investigates the relationship between international sanctions and coups d'état in targeted countries. Employing a panel logit model and utilizing data from 1972 to 2013 drawn from the Global Sanctions Database and the Coup Leaders Dataset, we analyze the effects of UN and Western...

In this paper we study the relationship between inequality and social instability. While the argument that inequality can be damaging for the cohesion of a society is old, the empirical evidence is mixed. We use a novel approach to isolate the causal relationship running from inequality to...