Die Pandemie, hervorgerufen durch Covid-19, hat seit Anfang 2020 die ganze Welt erfasst. Das tatsächliche Ausmaß der dadurch verursachten wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Verwerfungen sind noch nicht abschätzbar. In diesem Working-Paper wird ein Versuch unternommen, Covid-19 Zahlen der...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

We investigate the impacts of financial investors in commodity markets using intraday trade-and- quote data for commodity futures. We find strong evidence of order flows and price impacts in agricultural futures markets associated with changes in the positions of index traders reported by the...

Financial institutions that issue commodity-linked notes hedge their liabilities by buying commodity futures. Henderson, Pearson and Wang (2015) show that these futures trades impact commodity futures prices and interpret this as evidence that uninformed financial flows into the commodity...

Our study reports evidence on the dynamic effects of client switches on auditor reputations and fee premia. Offices of large accounting firms that lose (gain) major industry clients experience a reputation shock leading to more same-industry client losses (gains) over the next two years. There...

This paper investigates how order flows drive dynamic co-movements of exchange rates. We allow for asymmetric correlation responses to positive/negative shocks, control for structural breaks, bid-ask spreads and volatility effect of order flows, employ alternative order flow measures, and...

Nach den Umfrageergebnissen des ifo Instituts hat sich das Geschäftsklima bei den freischaffenden Architekten zu Beginn des ersten Quartals 2015 verbessert. Dies ist ausschließlich auf eine optimistischere Einschätzung der Entwicklung in den kommenden sechs Monaten zurückzuführen, während...

Nach den Umfrageergebnissen des ifo Instituts hat sich das Geschäftsklima bei den freischaffenden Architekten zu Beginn des ersten Quartals 2015 verbessert. Dies ist ausschließlich auf eine optimistischere Einschätzung der Entwicklung in den kommenden sechs Monaten zurückzuführen, während...

Following the much publicized "flash crash" in the U.S. financial markets on May 6, 2010, much work has been done in terms of developing reliable warning signals for impending market stress. However, this has met with limited success, except for one measure. The VPIN, or Volume-synchronized...

We built the largest dataset of high-frequency exchange rates so far. Our sample covers the spot prices and order flows of 19 currency pairs over the last 15 years measured on Reuters and EBS at the thirty-second frequency. We show that common, price-based factors describe exchange rate dynamics...

Following the discontinuation of the official statistics on industrial new orders by Eurostat in mid-2012, this paper introduces the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders, which aims to fill the new statistical gaps for euro area total new orders as well as for various breakdowns....

Research on foreign exchange market microstructure stresses the importance of order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information as crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure researchers have produced empirically-driven models that fit the data...

Während der konjunkturellen Aufschwungphase im Zeitraum 2005 bis 2008 koppelten sich in Deutschland die Auftragseingänge von der Industrieproduktion ab. Dagegen näherten sich die beiden Zeitreihen während und nach der aktuellen Wirtschaftskrise wieder an. Dies wirft die Frage auf, ob sich...

We quantify the short-run and long-run price effect of posting a limit order in an order book market based on a specific high-frequency cointegrated VAR model for quotes and order book depths. By estimating impulse response functions based on data from 30 stocks traded at Euronext Amsterdam we...

Over the last decade, the microstructure approach to exchange rates has become very popular. The underlying idea of this approach is that the order flows at different levels of aggregation contain valuable information to explain exchange rate movements. The bulk of empirical literature has...

Despite their importance in modern electronic trading, virtually no systematic empirical evidence on the market impact of incoming orders is existing. We quantify the short-run and long-run price effect of posting a limit order by proposing a high-frequency cointegrated VAR model for ask and bid...

Despite their importance in modern electronic trading, virtually no systematic empirical evidence on the market impact of incoming orders is existing. We quantify the short-run and long-run price effect of posting a limit order by proposing a high-frequency cointegrated VAR model for ask and bid...

Nach Jahren überaus kräftigen Wachstums, ist die Industrie in diesem Jahr in die konjunkturelle Abschwungphase eingetreten und wird deshalb im Jahresdurchschnitt 2008 nur noch ein Wachstum von 1,8 Prozent erreichen. Ursächlich hierfür sind vor allem die sich abschwächende Weltkonjunktur und...

Es stellt sich die Frage, durch welche Merkmale sich Einrichtungen auszeichnen, die derzeit eine starke Betonung des unternehmerischen Elements aufweisen. Diese Frage soll anhand des Umfangs der auftragsbezogenen Forschung gemessen werden. Die Untersuchung hat damit keineswegs den Anspruch, alle...

We explore the relationship between disaggregated order flow, the Canada/U.S. dollar (CAD/USD) market and U.S. macroeconomic announcements. Three types of CAD order flow and the CAD/USD are cointegrated. Financial order flow appears to contemporaneously drive the CAD/USD while commercial order...

Elements of an econometric examination of benchmark revisions in real-time data are suggested. Structural break tests may be applied to detect heterogeneities within vintages. Systems cointegration tests are helpful to reveal inconsistencies across vintages. Differencing and rebasing, often used...

The paper presents results of empirical tests with hybrid nominal exchange rate models for the Brazilian foreign exchange market, using macroeconomic and market microstructure variables. The basic model was originally proposed and tested in the German (DM/US$) and the Japanese (Y/US$) foreign...