This article explores the fitting of Autoregressive (AR) and Threshold AR (TAR) models with a non-Gaussian error structure. This is motivated by the problem of finding a possible probabilistic model for the realized volatility. A Gamma random error is proposed to cater for the non-negativity of...

Present paper proposes an autoregressive time series model to study the behaviour of merger and acquire concept which is equally important as other available theories like structural break, detrending etc. The main motivation behind newly proposed merged autoregressive (M-AR) model is to study...

This paper introduces a new model for spatial time series in which cross-sectional dependence varies nonlinearly over space by means of smooth transitions. We refer to our model as the Smooth Transition Spatial Autoregressive (ST-SAR). We establish consistency and asymptotic Gaussianity for the...

This paper studies the fact that 37 percent of the internal migrants in China do not sign a labor contract with their employers, as revealed in a nationwide survey. These contract-free jobs pay lower hourly wages, require longer weekly work hours, and provide less insurance or on-the-job...

The present article links business takeovers to the literature on serial autocorrelation of growth rates. The aim of the study is to identify the effects of successions on the performance of small German firms by analysing the growth pathways over a period of eight years after business takeover....

We apply a heterogenous coefficient spatial autoregressive panel model from Aquaro, Bailey and Pesaran (2015) to explore competition/cooperation by Berlin fueling stations in setting prices for diesel and E5 fuel. Unlike the maximum likelihood estimation method set forth by Aquaro, Bailey and...

Using detailed data on a cohort of young Americans who were in their late twenties and early thirties in 2008, we investigate the importance of forces different from economic incentives in nest-leaving decisions. We apply recent methods from social network econometrics to identify the importance...

This study compared the employment growth patterns of innovative and non-innovative firms, focusing on whether or not there are systematic differences between these two categories in the persistence of the jobs they create. To this end, a unique longitudinal dataset of 3304 Spanish firms over...

In this paper we test whether the key metals prices of gold and platinum significantly improve inflation forecasts for the South African economy. We also test whether controlling for conditional correlations in a dynamic setup, using bivariate Bayesian-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (B-DCC)...

In this paper we test whether the key metals prices of gold and platinum significantly improve inflation forecasts for the South African economy. We also test whether controlling for conditional correlations in a dynamic setup, using bivariate Bayesian-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (B-DCC)...

This manual describes the usage of the accompanying freely available Matlab program for estimation and testing in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. This program replaces an earlier Matlab program by Nielsen and Morin (2014), and although the present Matlab...

In this study, the extended Overnight Index Rate (OIR) model is presented. The fitting function for the probability distribution of the OIR daily returns is based on three different Gaussian distributions which provide modelling of the narrow central peak and the wide fat-tailed component. The...

This paper focuses on the workplace accidents of Gecamines in a comparative perspective. Copper industry has been the cornerstone of Congolese economy since the colonial era. Katanga province is well known for its reserves of copper and cobalt. Many accidents occurred in mining operations of...

In this paper we analyze the effect of four possible alternatives regarding the prior distributions in a linear model with autoregressive errors to predict piped water consumption: Normal-Gamma, Normal-Scaled Beta two, Studentized-Gamma and Student's t-Scaled Beta two. We show the effects of...

This paper demonstrates the impact of particular factors – such as a non-normal error distribution, constraints of the residuals, sample size, the multi-collinear values of independent variables and the autocorrelation coefficient – on the distributions of errors and residuals. This explains...