We study a principal‐agent framework in which the agent forms beliefs about the principal's project based on a misspecified subjective model. She fits this model to the objective probability distribution to predict output under alternative actions. Misspecifications in the subjective model may...

Economists routinely make functional form assumptions about consumer demand to obtain welfare estimates—often for convenience, tractability, or both. How sensitive are welfare estimates to these assumptions? In this paper, we answer this question by providing bounds on welfare that hold for...

Predictable polarization is everywhere. We can often predict the different directions that people’s opinions—including our own—will shift over time. Empirical studies suggest that this is so whenever evidence is ambiguous, a fact that’s often thought to demonstrate human bias or...

Motivated by recent developments in the bounded rationality and strategic complementarity literatures, we examine an intentionally simple and stylized aggregative economic model, when the assumptions of fully rational expectations and no strategic interactions are relaxed. We show that small...

We present tight bounds and heuristics for personalized, multi-product pricing problems. Under mild conditions we show that offering a non-personalize price in the direction of a positive vector (factor) has a tight profit guarantee relative to optimal personalized pricing. An optimal...

We review the recent literature on rational inattention, identify the main theoretical mechanisms, and explain how it helps us understand a variety of phenomena across fields of economics. The theory of rational inattention assumes that agents cannot process all available information, but they...

Recent theoretical and empirical work characterizes attention as a limited resource that decision-makers strategically allocate. There has been less research on the dynamic interdependence of attention: how paying attention now may affect performance later. In this paper, we exploit...

I consider multi-round cheap talk communication environments in which, after a lie, the informed party has no memory of the content of the lie. I characterize the equilibria with forgetful liars in such settings assuming that a liar's expectation about his past lie coincides with the equilibrium...

We develop a cobweb model in which firms, facing a two-period production delay, have access to a flexible (costly) and an inflexible (cheap) production technology. Moreover, firms select between production technologies depending on theirevolutionary fitness, measured in terms of past realized...

I study a class of macroeconomic models in which all firms can costlessly choose any price at each date from an interval (indexed to last period's price level) that includes a positive lower bound. I prove three results that are valid for any such half‐closed interval (regardless of how near...

This paper examines capacity-constrained oligopoly pricing with sellers who seek myopic improvements. We employ the Myopic Stable Set solution concept and establish the existence of a unique pure-strategy price solution for any given level of capacity. This solution is shown to coincide with the...

This exercise offers an innovative learning mechanism to model economic agent's decision-making process using a deep reinforcement learning algorithm. In particular, this AI agent is born in an economic environment with no information on the underlying economic structure and its own preference....

We relax the common assumption of homogeneous beliefs in principal-agent relationships with adverse selection. Principals are competitors in the product market and write contracts also on the base of an expected aggregate. The model is a version of a cobweb model. In an evolutionary learning...

This note provides two numerical representations of a nested system of strict partial orders. The first representation is based on utility and threshold functions. We generalize the threshold representation of menu-dependent preferences by allowing the threshold to depend not only on the menu...

The paper compares price level targeting and inflation targeting regimes in a New Keynesian model with bounded rationality. Economic agents form their expectations using heuristics - they choose between a few simple rules based on their past forecasting performance. Two main specifications of...

The rational inattention literature is split between two versions of the model: in one, mutual information of states and signals are bounded by a hard constraint, while, in the other, it appears as an additive term in the decision maker's utility function. The resulting constrained and...

Overconfidence has been extensively documented in psychology and economics. This paper studies the long-term interaction between two overconfident agents who learn about common payoff-relevant fundamentals, such as the quality of a joint project or their working environment, and choose how much...

Does bounded rationality make paternalism more attractive? This Essay argues that errors will be larger when suppliers have stronger incentives or lower costs of persuasion and when consumers have weaker incentives to learn the truth. These comparative statics suggest that bounded rationality...

This paper presents a model of the interaction between invention and learning by doing. Learning depends upon invention in that learning by doing is viewed as the serendipitous exploration of the finite productive potential of invented technologies. At the same time, the profitability of costly...

This paper takes seriously that the quasilinear utility model is an approximation. We interpret approximation error as arising because individuals are satisficers. We investigate the consequences of individual satisficng for modelling aggregate demand, providing an approximate aggregation...

We present a sufficient condition under which the prices of options written on a particular stock can be aggregated to calculate a lower bound on the expected returns of that stock. The sufficient condition imposes a restriction on a combination of the stock's systematic and idiosyncratic risk....

Problem definition: The existing literature on probabilistic or opaque selling has largely focused on understanding why it is attractive to firms. In this paper, we intend to answer a follow-up question: How should opaque selling be managed in a firm's operations over time? Academic/practical...

Predictions under common knowledge of payoffs may differ from those under arbitrarily, but finitely, many orders of mutual knowledge; Rubinstein's (1989)Email game is a seminal example. Weinstein and Yildiz (2007) showed that the discontinuity in the example generalizes: for all types with...

We integrate a plausible expectation formation and learning scheme of boundedly rational investors into a standard user cost housing market model, involving a rental and a housing capital market. In particular, investors switch between heterogeneous expectation rules according to an evolutionary...

Guided by evidence from eye-tracking studies of choice, pairwise comparison is assumed to be the building block of the decision-making procedure. A decision-maker with a rational preference may nevertheless consider the constituent pairwise comparisons gradually, easier comparisons preceding...

Decision-making is a multidisciplinary and ubiquitous phenomenon in organizations, and it can be observed at the individual, group, and organizational levels. Decision making plays, however, an increasingly important role for the manager, whose cognitive competence is reflected in his ability to...

For non-economists, it is often difficult to understand why economists place so much emphasis on the self-interest motive. It is obvious that people act out of a variety of motives - gratitude, anger, social obligation and many, many other motives. There are several reasons why economists still...

I study liquidity traps in a model where agents have heterogeneous expectations and finite planning horizons. Backward-looking agents base their expectations on past observations, while forward-looking agents have fully rational expectations. Liquidity traps that are fully or partly driven by...

The mathematical analogies between economics and classical mechanics can be extended from constrained optimization to constrained dynamics by formalizing economic (constraint) forces and economic power in analogy to physical (constraint) forces in Lagrangian mechanics. In a...