The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...

With count-valued outcomes y in {0,1,...,M} identification and estimation of average treatment effects raise no special considerations beyond those involved in the continuous-outcome case. If partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects is of interest, however, count-valued...

We consider a linear panel event-study design in which unobserved confounds may be related both to the outcome and to the policy variable of interest. We provide sufficient conditions to identify the causal effect of the policy by exploiting covariates related to the policy only through the...

The Poisson regression model remains an important tool in the econometric analysis of count data. In a pioneering contribution to the econometric analysis of such models, Lung-Fei Lee presented a specification test for a Poisson model against a broad class of discrete distributions sometimes...

The Poisson regression model remains an important tool in the econometric analysis of count data. In a pioneering contribution to the econometric analysis of such models, Lung-Fei Lee presented a specification test for a Poisson model against a broad class of discrete distributions sometimes...

The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, then elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any responsive and symmetric equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population...

We consider a linear panel event-study design in which unobserved confounds may be related both to the outcome and to the policy variable of interest. We provide sufficient conditions to identify the causal effect of the policy by exploiting covariates related to the policy only through the...

We consider a linear panel event-study design in which unobserved confounds may be related both to the outcome and to the policy variable of interest. We provide sufficient conditions to identify the causal effect of the policy by exploiting covariates related to the policy only through the...

In this paper, we propose a Vasicek-type of models for estimating portfolio level probability of default (PD). With these Vasicek models, asset correlation and long-run PD for a risk homogenous portfolio both have analytical solutions, longer external time series for market and macroeconomic...

Control charts, known for more than 80 years, have been important tools for business and industrial manufactures. Among many different types of control charts, the attribute control chart (np-chart or p-chart) is one of the most popular methods to monitor the number of observed defects in...

We define coherent-ambiguity aversion within the Klibanoff, Marinacci and Mukerji (2005) smooth ambiguity model (henceforth KMM) as the combination of choice-ambiguity aversion and value-ambiguity aversion. We analyze theoretically five ambiguous decision tasks, where a subject faces two-stage...

We define coherent-ambiguity aversion within the Klibano¤, Marinacci and Mukerji (2005) smooth ambiguity model (henceforth KMM) as the combination of choice-ambiguity aversion and value-ambiguity aversion. We analyze theoretically ?ve ambiguous decision tasks, where a subject faces two-stage...

Uncertainty about the riskiness of new financial products was an important factor behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral constraint in which agents learn "by...

The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER)....

This paper uses the setting of a volleyball game and an exotic sports betting on the point difference of volleyball games to test whether people correctly understand the probabilities related to outcomes of a process which follows a binomial distribution. We find that people consistently...

Coherent-ambiguity aversion is defined within the (Klibanoff et al., Econometrica 73:1849–1892, <CitationRef CitationID="CR40">2005</CitationRef>) smooth-ambiguity model (henceforth KMM) as the combination of choice-ambiguity and value-ambiguity aversion. Five ambiguous decision tasks are analyzed theoretically, where an individual faces...</citationref>

We give the proof of a tight lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable exceeds its expected value. The inequality plays an important role in a variety of contexts, including the analysis of relative deviation bounds in learning theory and generalization bounds for unbounded...

Recursive formulas are provided for computing probabilities of a multinomial distribution. Firstly, a recursive formula is provided for computing rectangular probabilities which include the cumulative distribution function as a special case. These rectangular probabilities can be used to provide...

Two-sided confidence intervals for a probability <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$p$$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"> <math xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <mrow> <mi>p</mi> </mrow> </math> </EquationSource> </InlineEquation> under a prescribed confidence level <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$\gamma $$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"> <math xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="italic">γ</mi> </mrow> </math> </EquationSource> </InlineEquation> are an elementary tool of statistical data analysis. A confidence interval has two basic quality characteristics: i) exactness, i. e., whether the actual coverage...</equationsource></equationsource></inlineequation></equationsource></equationsource></inlineequation>

In this paper, we discuss asymptotic infimum coverage probability (ICP) of eight widely used confidence intervals for proportions, including the Agresti–Coull (A–C) interval (Am Stat 52:119–126, <CitationRef CitationID="CR2">1998</CitationRef>) and the Clopper–Pearson (C–P) interval (Biometrika 26:404–413, <CitationRef CitationID="CR5">1934</CitationRef>). For the A–C...</citationref></citationref>

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in...