Dieser Artikel gibt einen frühen Überblick über die wichtigsten Entwicklungen in der deutschen Wirtschaft im Jahr 2020 unter dem Eindruck der Corona-Pandemie. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im Jahr 2020 nach ersten vorläufigen Ergebnissen um 5,0 % zurückgegangen. Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist...

Der Beitrag untersucht, inwieweit die Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen der Länder (VGRdL) Ergebnisse liefern, die vor dem Hintergrund anderer Informationen plausibel erscheinen. Als Vergleichsmaßstab dienen dabei die auf die Ebene von Bundesländern zusammengefassten Einschätzungen der...

Dieser Artikel gibt einen frühen Überblick über die wichtigsten Entwicklungen in der deutschen Wirtschaft im Jahr 2020 unter dem Eindruck der Corona-Pandemie. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im Jahr 2020 nach ersten vorläufigen Ergebnissen um 5,0% zurückgegangen. Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist...

Der Beitrag untersucht, inwieweit die Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen der Länder (VGRdL) Ergebnisse liefern, die vor dem Hintergrund anderer Informationen plausibel erscheinen. Als Vergleichsmaßstab dienen dabei die auf die Ebene von Bundesländern zusammengefassten Einschätzungen der...

Der Artikel erläutert die Privaten Konsumausgaben: ihren Beitrag zur konjunkturellen Entwicklung im Jahr 2019 und ihre verschiedenen Konzepte und Gliederungen. Darüber hinaus erklärt er die im Rahmen der Generalrevision 2019 der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen in die Berechnungen der...

It has been argued that credit-to-GDP gaps (credit gap) are useful early warning indicators for banking crises. In addition, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has also advocated using these gaps - estimated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with a smoothing parameter of 400,000...

We study the effects of credit over the business cycle, distinguishing between expansions and contractions. We find that there is a growth and risk trade-off in the pace of credit growth over the business cycle. While rapid credit growth tends to be followed by deeper recessions, we also find...

Politicians and international organisations advocate for increased regulation and government control of industry in order to handle climate change and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. However, it remains an open question how economic freedom is associated with environmental damage and...

Der Artikel erläutert die Privaten Konsumausgaben: ihren Beitrag zur konjunkturellen Entwicklung im Jahr 2019 und ihre verschiedenen Konzepte und Gliederungen. Darüber hinaus erklärt er die im Rahmen der Generalrevision 2019 der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen in die Berechnungen der...

This paper analyses the macroeconomic implications of a future shift in the age structure of the Swiss population. It estimates the long-run effects for Swiss GDP growth and its components in an Overlapping Generations Model (OLG model). Recent population projections by the Federal Statistical...

It has been argued that credit-to-GDP gaps (credit gap) are useful early warning indicators for banking crises. In addition, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has also advocated using these gaps - estimated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with a smoothing parameter of 400,000...

This paper analyzes the relationship between stock market capitalization to GDP and real GDP in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) that joined the European Union in 2004 and 2007, with the objective of determining whether the financial markets played a role as drivers of economic...

I evaluate the welfare performance of a target for the level of nominal GDP in a New Keynesian model with unemployment, accounting for a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Nominal GDP targeting is compared to employment targeting, a conventional Taylor rule, and the...

I study potentials and gaps, permanent and transitory fluctuations in macroeconomic variables using the Smets and Wouter (2007) model. Model-based gaps display low frequency variations; possess more than business cycle fluctuations; have similar frequency representation as potentials, and are...

There is a long tradition in literature that banks can play a special role in the propagation of economic fluctuations. Theory suggests many channels through which financial system affects, and is affected by, economic growth. One of the most important empirical studies on this topic shows a...

Rainfall is related to economic growth and generally has beneficial impacts on dry and poor areas that are mostly dependent on rainfed agriculture. Thailand is a service-based, upper middle-income country with a tropical climate although rainfall varies regionally. The volume of precipitation in...

Per capita GDP has limited use as a well-being indicator because it does not capture many dimensions that imply a "good life", such as health and equality of opportunity. However, per capita GDP has the virtues of easy interpretation and can be calculated with manageable data requirements....

This paper explores a new theoretical and empirical approach to the assessment of human wellbeing, relevant to current challenges of social fragmentation in the presence of globalization and technological advance. We present two indexes of well-being - solidarity (S) and agency (A) - to be...

Narratives - stories - prevail in social life, however little is known about their relation to economic behavior and outcomes. We shed light on this issue by studying the association between folktales' motifs and economic behavior across the world. First, we explore possible relations between...

We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we...

Machine Learning models are often considered to be "black boxes" that provide only little room for the incorporation of theory (cf. e.g. Mukherjee, 2017; Veltri, 2017). This article proposes so-called Dynamic Factor Trees (DFT) and Dynamic Factor Forests (DFF) for macroeconomic forecasting, which...

Per capita GDP has limited use as a well-being indicator because it does not capture many dimensions that imply a "good life," such as health and equality of opportunity. However, per capita GDP has the virtues of easy interpretation and can be calculated with manageable data requirements....

This study seeks to establish the relationship between carbon emissions, agricultural output and industrial output in South Africa. It uses data from 1960 to 2017 based on an annual frequency, giving a total of 58 annual observations. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique is employed to...

Financial inclusion is the process of including the people who lack formal financial services. The concept of financial inclusion emerged globally in the times of millennium and is defined as the availability and usage of formal financial services. It essentially facilitates economic growth; the...

The majority of studies into the economic effects of high-skilled migration focus on aggregate impact on the economic output in the countries of destination. The economic impact of migration of the highly qualified on the economies of the countries of their origin has been examined less. This...

Following an unparalleled rise in uncertainty over the Great Recession, the US economy has been experiencing anaemic productivity growth. This paper offers a quantitative study on the link between uncertainty and low productivity growth. Firstly, using micro level data I show that uncertainty...

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the development of the economy and contribute significantly to ensure sustainability, economic growth and wealth of nation. A strong and well-developed SME sector contributes significantly to innovation, exports and the creation...

This paper quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier (i.e., the magnifying effect of the real impact of uncertainty shocks due to financial frictions) by relying on two historical events related to the US economy, i.e., the large jump in financial uncertainty occurred in October 1987 (which...

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth...