The stock market operates on informed decisions based on information gathered from heterogeneous sources, encompassing diverse beliefs, strategies, and knowledge. This study examines the validity of rational bubbles in stock market prices, focusing on eight African stock markets: South Africa,...

This study theoretically considers household behavior with wealth preference and empirically investigates the validity of insatiable wealth preference using a nationally representative survey. With wealth preference, the marginal rate of substitution of asset holdings for consumption depends on...

This paper examines how monetary expansion causes asset bubbles. When there is no monetary expansion, a bubbly asset is not created due to a hold-up problem. Monetary expansion increases buyers' money holdings, and then, dealers are willing to buy a worthless asset from sellers, in hopes of...

In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test exploits the fact that bubbles are...

Galí (2014) showed that a monetary policy rule that raises interest rates in response to bubbles can paradoxically lead to larger bubbles. This comment shows that a central bank that wants to dampen bubbles can always do so by raising interest rates aggressively enough. This result is different...

This paper proposes concepts and methods to investigate whether the bubble patterns observed in individual time series are common among them. Having established the conditions under which common bubbles are present within the class of mixed causal-noncausal vector autoregressive models, we...

The global financial crisis (2008-2009) represents a notable example of a generally unpredicted crisis in economic history. Nevertheless, it presented features comparable to almost any previous (monetarily related) crisis episode. For instance, it was characterized by a "vicious cycle" made by...

Queen Anne's Bounty was a corporation created in 1704 to redistribute income within the Anglican clergy. Structurally a saver needing a liquid asset, the corporation pursued a conservative strategy of investing in the dominant form of government debt, adapting as the market changed. It was...

Britain's debt was nil in 1688 and 60% of GDP in 1717. From 1717 to 1722 the debt was restructured, including through the South Sea operation of 1720. I discuss the reasons for the restructuring and the tensions it revealed between taxpayers and creditors. The South Sea bubble turned the...

Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our...

This study examines whether Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) exercise a greater proportion of their exercisable options in response to firm-specific stock price bubbles. For a sample of U.S. firms from 1992 to 2021, the study identifies stock price bubble periods using the Generalized Sup...

Financial assets often exhibit explosive price surges followed by abrupt collapses, alongside persistent volatility clustering. Motivated by these features, we introduce a mixed causal-noncausal invertible-noninvertible autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional...

This study leverages the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator to effectively identify bubbles in agricultural commodity markets. We analyze five major grain price indices reported by the International Grains Council (IGC) from January 2000 to April 2023, successfully...

We construct a model of bubbles where an asset can be used as collateral primarily due to higher-order uncertainty: while both a lender and a borrower know that the intrinsic value of the asset is low, they may still believe that a “greater fool” exists who will purchase it at a much higher...

The study examines housing affordability in Germany from 2017 to 2023 in light of rising real estate prices and challenges in the housing market. It uses the Housing Affordability Index to identify trends and patterns and propose policy measures to tackle the problems. The results show regional...