Search Results - subject_exact:"Budget deficit"

The impact of geopolitical crises on fiscal and budgetary stability

Papainog, Maria-Teodora - 2026

This study explores the relationship between geopolitical risk and fiscal-budgetary stability of countries, focusing on how external instability impacts the dynamics of the budget deficit. Using a dynamic System GMM (Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond) model on a panel dataset of 25 OECD member...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639915

Heterogeneous growth effects in MENA countries : evidence from pooled quantile regression

Alrefo, Mahmoud Odeh Mitlaq; Lee, Yvonne; Han Hwa Goh - 2026

This study examines the heterogeneous effects of key macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in selected MENA economies using a pooled quantile regression framework. Unlike conventional mean-based approaches, this method captures variation across different segments of the conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633282

Twenty-five years of inflation-targeting in South Africa : going from 6% to 3%?

Burger, Philippe - 2025

This paper proposes that the South African Reserve Bank should pursue a 3% inflation target, instead of the current 4.5% midpoint of a 3%-to-6% target range. Doing so may also result in lower inflation volatility, thereby reducing nominal exchange rate risk for investment and trade, and may thus...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015410635

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Twenty-five years of inflation-targeting in South Africa: Going from 6% to 3%?

Burger, Philippe - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Improving the performance audit mechanism to enhance the importance of strategic government audit

Bashu, Zamira; Yelubayeva, Almagul; Sembiyeva, Lyazzat; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612203

Fiscal (un)sustainability in practice : local government finance in Visegrad economies

Uryszek, Tomasz; Kłysik-Uryszek, Agnieszka - 2025

The objective of this study is to evaluate the fiscal sustainability of Local Government Units (LGUs) in the Visegrad Group economies (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia; the V4), focusing on three key hypotheses: (1) LGUs in the V4 are involved in so-called Ponzi games; (2) the adverse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015476949

Optimal public debt threshold for Nepal

Prasai, Laxmi Prasad - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015061820

Budget deficit in a growing economy and impossibility of fiscal collapse : a continuous time analysis

Tanaka, Yasuhito - 2024

Using a continuous time dynamic model of growing economy we will show the following results. 1) When people derive utility from their money holding (or government bond holding) along with their consumption, a budget deficit is essential to achieve and maintain full employment under stable prices...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015415361

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Budget deficit in a growing economy and impossibility of fiscal collapse: A continuous time analysis

Tanaka, Yasuhito - 2024

Article

Ageing costs, public debt sustainability and EU fiscal rules

Gökten, Meryem; Heimberger, Philipp - 2026

This paper examines the role of ageing costs and the underlying assumptions in the reformed EU fiscal rules. To comply with these rules, governments facing rising ageing costs over the decade that follows a multi-year adjustment period must pre-emptively implement fiscal consolidation measures...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654499

Republic of Kazakhstan: State-Owned Enterprises, the Fiscal Stance, and Risks

Heng, Dyna - 2026

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economy and growth model. However, SOEs’ quasi-fiscal activities conducted outside the fiscal framework obscure the overall fiscal stance, complicating macroeconomic management. This paper finds that the balance sheet...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612627

On the sustainable deficit of the government

Greiner, Alfred - 2026

In this note we derive the long-run public deficit to GDP ratio that is compatible with a sustainable public debt. Starting from the observation that a sustainable debt policy requires that the present value of public debt asymptotically converges to zero and that the debt to GDP ratio must be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015595761

Debt and deficits: fiscal analysis with stationary ratios

Campbell, John Y.; Gao, Can; Martin, Ian - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015578953

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Debt and Deficits : Fiscal Analysis with Stationary Ratios

Campbell, John Y.; Gao, Can; Martin, Ian - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Debt and deficits : fiscal analysis with stationary ratios

Campbell, John Y.; Gao, Can; Martin, Ian - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Debt and Deficits : Fiscal Analysis with Stationary Ratios

Campbell, John Y.; Gao, Can; Martin, Ian - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Fiscal monitoring with VARs

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; … - 2026

We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605598

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Fiscal Monitoring with VARs

Cimadomo, Jacopo; Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The budget for fiscal headroom

2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606046

Impact of fiscal sustainability on economic growth in Kenya

Mose, Naftaly; Moro, Kamal Deen - 2026

Fiscal sustainability refers to a government's capacity to generate sufficient revenue to cover its expenses and repay its debts without accumulating excessive liabilities or creating new money. Recent observations indicate that Kenya's economic growth has slowed, prompting concerns about its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620782

Public debt sustainability in the Eurozone : an empirical assessment using macroeconomic indicators

Mutai, Noah Cheruiyot; Ibeh, Lawrence; Farag, Karim; … - 2026

This study examines public debt sustainability in the Eurozone by estimating fiscal reaction functions that assess how fiscal balances respond to rising public debt under heterogeneous macroeconomic conditions. Using annual panel data for 20 EU countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ fixed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628390

Governance quality and fiscal discipline : evidence from an emerging economy

Alsaffarini, Enas; Awwad, Bahaa Sobhi Abde Latif - 2026

This study examines the impact of key governance dimensions on public budget rationalization in Palestine from 2002 to 2023. Utilizing Legitimacy Theory, the research assesses how institutional quality affects fiscal outcomes, including revenues, expenditures, net lending, and budget balance....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628706

Fiscal and external breakeven oil prices are broken concepts (and how to fix them)

Pierru, Axel; Smith, James L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641905

On the unintended consequence of fiscal rules : evidence from fiscal expenditures

Arezki, Rabah; Graziosi, Grégoire Rota; Le Van Dao - 2026

This paper documents the unintended consequence of fiscal rules in the form of tax expenditures using both theory and data. We first introduce a simple fiscal model where the government has time-inconsistent preferences with a present bias toward public spending in line with Halac and Yared...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656663

Strengthening fiscal legislation through extrinsic and intrinsic incentives

Goyal, Ashima - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647559

The cyclical behaviour of government spending for social protection : is the OECD methodology robust?

Arsenev, Aleksandr; Heimberger, Philipp; Schütz, Bernhard - 2026

Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650700

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The cyclical behaviour of government spending for social protection : is the OECD methodology robust?

Arsenev, Aleksandr; Heimberger, Philipp; Schütz, Bernhard - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Whither the federal budget?

Dynan, Karen E.; Smetters, Kent A.; Zentner, Ellen - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651381

Deficit aversion as a path to higher debt : sovereign debt dynamics in a stock-flow consistent model with public capital

Jürgens, Ekaterina - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652488

Climate change and India's inflation, fiscal space and growth

SenGupta, Swapnanil; Atal, Aakansha - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653146

Fiscal deficit : effect of economic, political, and institutional factors in Ecuador

Hernandez-Medina, Patricia; Ayol-Ayol, Cristian Israel; … - 2026

This study estimates the effect of economic, political, and institutional factors on Ecuador's budget deficit during the period 1990-2022. A distributed lag autoregressive model is used, given the non-stationarity of the variables and their different orders of integration. The limit test and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653887

Financial stability limits on fiscal space

Zampolli, Fabrizio - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668198

The interest rate effect of government debt and deficits : does domestic borrowing have a different impact than foreign borrowing?

Davis, Scott; Derr, Lillian - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669403

Do fiscal rules undermine public investments? : a review of empirical evidence

Blesse, Sebastian; Dörr, Luisa; Dorn, Florian; Lay, Max - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670970

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Do fiscal rules undermine public investments? : a review of empirical evidence

Blesse, Sebastian; Dorn, Florian; Lay, Max - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Econometric models of ensuring financial stability of local budgets

Burkhanov, Aktam U.; Sagdillayeva, Zulfiya A.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638106

Stabilization and adjustment in MENA : the case of Egypt

Abdel-Latif, Abla M.; Aboud, Sahar; Said, Rama; Seif, Racha - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014487456

Deficit financing with the national saving certificate and its macroeconomic consequences on Bangladesh's economy

Alam, Mohammad Mahabub - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014432289

Some Kaleckian remarks on modern monetary theory in light of a paper by Drumetz/Pfister

Sawyer, Malcolm C. - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014441463

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Some Kaleckian remarks on modern monetary theory in light of a paper by Drumetz/Pfister

Sawyer, Malcolm C. - 2023

Article

Monetary economy and budget deficit in endogenous growth model

Tanaka, Yasuhito - 2023

By an endogenous growth model with two-period overlapping generations structure and money holding of consumers, we examine the existence of budget deficit in an economy which endogenously grows by investments of firms. The main results are as follows. (1) Budget deficit is necessary for full...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014465992

An empirical investigation of macroeconomic determinants of public debt in Ghana

Musah, Ibrahim - 2023

Ghana has a lengthy history of accumulating public debt, primarily driven by the expansion of fiscal deficits. This has resulted in a persistent increase in the public debt ratio, as the country borrowed both externally and internally to stimulate economic growth and augment its capital stock....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014500989

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An empirical investigation of macroeconomic determinants of public debt in Ghana

Musah, Ibrahim - 2023

Article

Parameters of Kazakhstan's fiscal policy

Žakupova, Meruert M.; Hanetova, Ajaköz B. - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014390660

Key macroeconomic determinants of government debt : the case of North Macedonia

Taskovski, Filip - 2023

overnment debt, as a prime macroeconomic determinant, has a significant impact on the design of fiscal and monetary policy in a country. That is to say, that, with the emergence of the Corona crisis and the energy crisis which caused: 1) interruption of global supply chains, 2) increase in food...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015154796

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Key macroeconomic determinants of government debt: The case of North Macedonia

Taskovski, Filip - 2023

Article

Macro-imbalances and bank lending: A case of Kenya's banking industry

Agung, Raphael; Muli, Anthony; Ndwiga, David; Njoroge, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015397846

Fiscal deficit and inflation dynamics in the WAMZ

Olowofeso, Olorunsola E.; Wadda, Ebrima N.; Adedeji, … - 2025

The West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)'s economy has faced persistent fiscal deficits over the years, and this has affected other macroeconomic indicators like inflation. This study empirically examines the effect of fiscal deficit on inflation dynamics in the WAMZ. It employs the Panel Smooth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618357

Politics of local fiscal discipline with vertical fiscal imbalance

Obeng, Samuel Kwabena; Aazam, Layal - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371893

Fiscal forecasting rationality among expert forecasters

Chocobar, Belen; Claeys, Peter; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374211

Fiscal stance, fiscal rules, and public debt dynamics in the United States

Abubakar, Attahir Babaji; Mamman, Suleiman O.; Iliyasu, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374323

Fiscal and monetary policy interactions : impacts and economic implications

Bozagiu, Andreea-Mădălina; Mihai, Dănuț-Georgian; … - 2025

This paper analyses the impact of various macroeconomic shocks - including aggregate demand, supply, monetary policy, real exchange rate, and budget deficit deviation shocks - on Romania's economy using a VAR model with Bayesian inference. The study captures the period following the adoption of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375074

Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375251

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Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Twin deficits or distant cousins? : why the distinction matters for banks in Kenya

Kiplangat, Josea Cheruyiot; Osoro, Jared - 2025

This paper seeks to determine the interaction mechanism between the domestic imbalance and the external imbalance in Kenya and why it matters for banks. Whenever an economy has is on a path of soaring fiscal and current account deficits like Kenya has been over the past decade, concerns on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375413

Macro-imbalances and bank lending : a case of Kenya's banking industry

Agung, Raphael; Muli, Anthony; Ndwiga, David; Njoroge, … - 2025

The paper examines the effect of macroeconomic imbalances on bank lending with emphasis on the exchange rate movement, inflation differential and fiscal deficit. In the study, bank lending is modelled by gross loans and advances, assets quality and risk appetite. The panel GMM model results show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375427

Fiscal and external sustainability : a two-step time-varying Granger causality assessment

Afonso, António; Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos; … - 2025

We implement a two-step analysis of fiscal and external causality patterns using a data set covering the 27 EU countries in the period 2002Q1-2023Q4. In the 1st step, we compute fiscal and external sustainability time-varying coefficients, modelling the cointegration relationship between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015211762

U.S. infrastructure: 1929-2023

Fair, Ray C. - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015271652

Compliance with fiscal sustainability and the Euro

Afonso, António; Miranda, Catarina Farinha - 2025

Through fiscal reaction functions, we investigate fiscal sustainability for five European country-group panels and check for a change in fiscal behaviour after countries adopted the euro as their currency. Using annual data for the period between 1990 and 2021, we identify evidence of average...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333286

"Pop" goes the National Debt

Mateer, G. Dirk; Geerling, Wayne; … - 2025

This paper provides a novel way for instructors to teach about the perils of a large National Debt, which is currently $36 trillion. We provide a detailed lesson plan that utilizes balloons to illustrate the possible paths a society can take to address this issue. The lesson plan consists of an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015190213

Trading deficits for investment : optimal deficit rules for present-biased governments

Bergmann, Tobias; Moretti, Nikolaj - 2025

We develop a simple two-period principal-agent model in which a present-biased government, the agent, chooses public investment levels given a deficit rule imposed by the principal. The principal sets a deficit cap to curb current debt-financed consumption. In doing so, it also reduces long-term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015190377

Do deficits cause inflation? : a high frequency narrative approach

Hazell, Jonathon; Hobler, Stephan - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015199756

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Do deficits cause inflation? : a high frequency narrative approach

Hazell, Jonathon; Hobler, Stephan - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Do deficits cause inflation? : a high frequency narrative approach

Hazell, Jonathon; Hobler, Stephan - 2024

Book / Working Paper