Search Results - subject_exact:"Business cycle synchronization"

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From tailwinds to headwinds : emerging and developing economies in the twenty-first century

Mozzanica, Mirco Balatti; Kose, M. Ayhan; Mckinnon, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015467983

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From tailwinds to headwinds : emerging and developing economies in the twenty-first century

Mozzanica, Mirco Balatti; Kose, M. Ayhan; McKinnon, Kate; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Role of central bank independence on monetary integration and business cycle synchronization in the Economic Community of West African States

Diendéré, Louis-Joël Basneouinde; Diendere, Achille … - 2024

This article examines the effects of monetary integration on the synchronization of the business cycle within ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) and contributes to the economic literature dealing with these aspects. First, the indicators of de facto and de jure central bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015334584

Synchronous but dissimilar: heterogeneity in the bank lending channel across the euro area

Ferstl, Robert; Graf, Bernhard - 2026

The following study analyzes the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending in the euro area. It focuses particularly on the heterogeneity in the speed and strength of propagation of monetary policy shocks across euro area countries. We employ instrumental variables, based on common euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615822

Not all shocks are shared equally : commodity exporters and international risk sharing

Luttini, Emiliano; Mekonnen, Dawit; Mercer-Blackman, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619022

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Not All Shocks Are Shared Equally : Commodity Exporters and International Risk Sharing

Luttini, Emiliano; Mekonnen, Dawit; Mercer-Blackman, Valerie - 2026

Book / Working Paper

U.S .- Korea yield synchronization and its implications for monetary policy transmission

Kim, Jihyun; Kim, Somin; Kwak, Boreum - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605080

Quantifying macroeconomic spillovers : the role of trade linkages in propagating conflict shocks

Eydam, Ulrich; Leupold, Florian - 2026

Geopolitical conflicts generate macroeconomic spillovers that extend beyond directly affected countries through trade and commodity linkages. This paper quantifies these effects for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using a monthly Trade-Related Conflict Exposure (TRCE) index for 2009–2023...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620636

The integration-contagion paradox : global linkages and crisis transmission in South Asian stock markets

Gajurel, Dinesh; Thapa, Bharat Singh - 2026

This study examines financial integration and contagion across South Asia's emerging and frontier markets during the 2001-2013 period, encompassing both the global financial and Eurozone crises. Employing a multi-factor asset pricing model within an EGARCH framework, we disentangle systematic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652114

Pricing-to-market in business cycle models

Drozd, Lukasz A.; Kolasa, Marcin; Nosal, Jaromir - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669379

Fiscal policy, portfolio frictions, and international transmission

Mac Mullen, Marcos - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669229

From tailwinds to headwinds: Emerging and developing economies in the twenty-first century

Mozzanica, Mirco Balatti; Kose, M. Ayhan; McKinnon, Kate; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015532205

Inflation synchronization and shock transmission between the eurozone and the non-euro CEE Economies : a wavelet quantile VAR approach

Alqaralleh, Huthaifa; Canepa, Alessandra; Muchova, Eva - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371761

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Inflation synchronization and shock transmission between the eurozone and the non-Euro CEE economies : a wavelet quantile var approach

Alqaralleh, Huthaifa; Canepa, Alessandra; Muchova, Eva - 2024

Book / Working Paper

International spillovers of fiscal news shocks

Turgut, Mehmet Burak; Wesołowski, Grzegorz - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373328

US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

Wesołowski, Grzegorz; Gurshev, Oleg - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373329

The endogeneity of optimum currency areas in light of pan-European intra-industry trade patterns and business cycle synchronicity

Steinert, Frank Niklas; Althammer, Wilhelm - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333795

Monitoring business cycle fluctuations in Asia

Pundit, Madhavi; Ramayandi, Arief; Simba, Patrick Jaime A. - 2025

Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191532

Revisiting the impact of oil price shocks on macroeconomic performance : an international perspective

Shen, Yifan; Gu, Ziping; Abeysinghe, Tilak; Shi, Xunpeng - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015193846

How costly are business cycle volatility and inflation? : a vox populi approach

Georgarakos, Dimitris; Kim, Kwang Hwan; Coibion, Olivier; … - 2025

Using surveys of households across thirteen countries, we study how much individuals would be willing to pay to eliminate business cycles. These direct estimates are much higher than traditional measures following Lucas (2003): on average, households would be prepared to sacrifice around 5-6% of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015196921

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How costly are business cycle volatility and inflation? : a Vox Populi approach

Georgarakos, Dimitris; Kim, Kwang Hwan; Coibion, Olivier; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Economic crisis contagion in the eurozone : results from cross-quantilogram and network approach

Beck, Krzysztof; Grabowski, Wojciech - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471136

The transmission of international monetary policy shocks to firms’ expectations

Frache, Serafin; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Pedemonte, Mathieu; … - 2025

Motivated by the dominant role of the US dollar, we explore how monetary policy (MP) shocks in the United States can affect a small open economy through the expectation channel. We combine data from a panel survey of firms' expectations in Uruguay with granular information about firms' debt...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472425

Transmission of economic growth between neighboring countries in Europe

Kim, Sangho - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015473185

Which global cycle? : a stochastic factor selection approach for global macro-financial cycles

Berger, Tino; Hienzsch, Sebastian - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015461631

The EU public debt synchronization : a complex networks approach

Gkatzoglou, Fotios; Sofianos, Emmanouil; … - 2025

This study examines the evolution of public debt among the 27 EU member states using Graph Theory tools; the Threshold Weighted-Minimum Dominating Set (TW-MDS) and the k-core decomposition method, alongside a standard network quantitative metric, the density. By separating the data into three...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015441257

Synchronization vs. transmission : the effect of the German slowdown on the Italian business cycle

Mistretta, Alessandro - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015426706

Monetary policy spillovers : is this time different?

Chen, Hongyi; Tillmann, Peter - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015561360

A millennium of UK business cycles : insights from structural VAR analysis

Ferreira, Leonardo Nogueira; Mumtaz, Haroon; Pinter, Gabor - 2025

We study macroeconomic fluctuations in the United Kingdom over seven centuries (1271-2022) using a time-varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We identify business cycle shocks as innovations explaining the largest share of future output variance. Before 1900, these shocks display a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612417

Missing Imports in the Euro Area : Domestic Monetary Policy, Cross-Border Synchronization, and Demand Composition

Caselli, Francesca - 2025

This paper sheds new light on an overlooked channel of monetary transmission: the relationship between central bank interest rate policy and the economy’s trade position. It examines the impact of monetary policy on import dynamics through its effect on domestic demand composition. In 2023,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015613300

European business cycle indicators : 3rd Quarter 2025

2025

Increasing geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation are challenging the resilience of global value chains, by undermining the collaborative networks on which they depend. As countries impose trade restrictions or become less reliable partners, companies may reconfigure their supply chains,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015520867

Spatial consumption risk sharing

Arora, Prateek; Choo, Dongwan; Hu, Chenyue - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583516

Cross-border banking and the transmission of global shocks to credit cycles in developing economies : a commodity price cycles channel

Bationo, François d'Assises Babou; Murinde, Victor; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626046

Economic knock-on effects of Russia’s geopolitical risk on advanced economies : a Bayesian global VAR approach

Blagov, Boris; Dirks, Maximilian Wilhelm; Funke, Michael - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626926

On optimal currency areas : common shocks versus common persistence of shocks

Grimm, Louisa; Steinkamp, Sven; Westermann, Frank - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015482714

The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks

Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573246

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The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks

Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2022

Book / Working Paper

The Global Financial Cycle and Macroeconomic Tail Risks

Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2023

Book / Working Paper

The Global Financial Cycle and Macroeconomic Tail Risks

Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2022

Book / Working Paper

How strong is the link between the global financial cycle and national macro-financial dynamics? : A wavelet analysis

Proano, Christian; Virla, Leonardo Quero; Strohsal, Till - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574286

Drivers of the global financial cycle

Rogers, John A.; Sun, Bo; Wu, Wenbin - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574436

Development of Slovenian macroeconomic imbalances and their synchronization with EU countries

Bednářová, Pavla; Valentová, Vladimíra Hovorková - 2025

Slovenia and other EU member states are subject to the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure. This article aims to evaluate the macroeconomic imbalances of the Slovenian economy and its synchronisation with other EU countries from 2013 to 2022. Eleven Scoreboard indicators are used to monitor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015395700

Resolving the trade comovement puzzle at the margin of global value chains

Choi, Bongseok - 2025

Purpose - This paper investigates the crucial role that the trade of intermediate goods plays in elucidating trade-output synchronization. We specifically highlight the significance of incorporating intermediate trade, particularly concerning the dominance of forward linkages in the global value...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015397275

The role of inventories in European business cycles : evidence from 1999-2023

Härtwig, Jochen; Keil, Sascha - 2025

This paper examines the role of inventories in macroeconomic fluctuations across 29 European countries from 1999 to 2023, covering three major recessions. Using a novel panel dataset and dynamic panel-econometric methods, we analyse short- and long-run inventory behaviour. Results confirm the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015533304

How Phillips curve dynamics enhance business cycle synchronization analysis in Central and Eastern Europe

Petz, Nico; Zörner, Thomas - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015580062

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How Phillips curve dynamics enhance business cycle synchronization analysis in Central and Eastern Europe

Petz, Nico; Zörner, Thomas - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Effects of bilateral trade and common trade exposure on business cycle synchronization : evidence from Korea

Kang, Kichun - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329421

Bilateral production integration and business cycle synchronization

Zhao, Wei; Li, Yunong - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015415073

International business cycle synchronization : a synthetic assessment

I, Hyeon hun; Park, Cyn-Young; Pyun, Ju Hyun - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014545455

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International business cycle synchronization : a synthetic assessment

I, Hyeon hun; Park, Cyn-Young; Pyun, Ju Hyun - 2022

Book / Working Paper

International Business Cycle Synchronization : A Synthetic Assessment

I, Hyeon hun; Park, Cyn-Young; Pyun, Ju Hyun - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Who will be the next in line to join the Euro Area? : a business cycle synchronization evidence

Duarte, António Portugal; Silva, Nuno Baetas da; … - 2022

The aim of this paper is to investigate business cycle synchronization between seven candidate countries to the Euro Area (EA) - Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden - and the Euro Area (EA-12/EA-19), France and Germany. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is used to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013191264

Is monetary integration economically viable in the Economic Community of West African States?

Agboola, Olayode W.; Olayeni, Olaolu Richard - 2022

The introduction of a common currency in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been the subject of extensive research over the past couple of decades, with extant issues ranging from viability and feasibility to sustainability of monetary integration in the region. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014513789

Role of central bank independence on monetary integration and business cycle synchronization in the economic community of West African States

Diendere, Louis-Joel Basneouinde; Diendere, Achille Augustin - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015425894

U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations

Ugazio, Giovanni - 2024

We empirically examine U.S. monetary policy spillovers to the Middle East and Central Asia (ME & CA) region by decomposing U.S. interest rates changes into two orthogonal shocks: the pure monetary policy shock and the information news shock. Using a sample of 16 ME & CA countries, we find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015058845

Financial frictions and asymmetric international risk sharing

Asdrubali, Pierfederico; Kim, So-yŏng; Park, Haerang - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014631632

The performance of emerging markets during the fed's easing and tightening cycles : a resilience analysis across economies

Aizenman, Joshua; Park, Donghyun; Qureshi, Irfan A.; … - 2024

We investigate the determinants of the performance of emerging markets (EMs) during five United States (US) Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles from 2004 to 2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an EM at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014633512

The euro area business cycle and its drivers

Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego; Grigoraș, Veaceslav; … - 2024

The monitoring and analysis of the business cycle is a central element of inputs to monetary policy decision-making. This report contributes to the analysis of business cycles in the euro area in three dimensions. First, in terms of business cycle dating, it proposes automated procedures to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014634620

Determinants of regional business cycle synchronization in Greece

Delis, Panagiotis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Filis, George; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015121012

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Determinants of regional business cycle synchronization in Greece

Delis, Panagiotis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Filis, George; … - 2024

Book / Working Paper