This paper employs newly digitized Balance of Payments data, covering more than 30 countries between 1922 and 1938, to study international financial flows during the interwar period. I revisit the classical topics of this era, the gold standard and the debt carousel, and document the boom-bust...

To investigate the macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization, we apply a dynamic general equilibrium model with two production sectors. In contrast to the literature on belief-driven sunspot fluctuations caused by production externalities, our model does not assume any production...

Illicit financial flows (IFFs) not only deprive developing countries of domestic resources for development, but also pose a continuing challenge for sustained growth, governance, and effective social justice. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence on this growing concern for the...

In the past decade, Germany has been the world champion in exporting capital ("Exportweltmeister"). No other country invested larger amounts of savings outside its borders. However, we find that Germany plays in the third division when it comes to investment performance. To show this, we...

This paper develops an estimated New Keynesian model of a commodity-exporting economy for an integrated policy framework, integrating the full range of policies used in practice and featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, macro-financial linkages, and transmission channels of external...

This paper aims to develop a credit-risk model in which firms face rollover risk, and the markets for defaulted assets are segmented due to entry costs. The paper shows that reducing the entry costs in this economy may decrease the total surplus of the economy. This outcome can arise because...

Over the past decade, geopolitical developments - and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world - have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe...

This working paper is written by J. Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), Michael B. Devereux (University of British Columbia) and Changhua Yu (Peking University).We model sudden stops in a small open economy as rare discrete events precipitated by increases in the world risk-free rate....

Using high-frequency, proprietary data on daily net non-resident portfolio flows to emerging markets, our study finds in the time domain connectedness framework that, to varying degrees, there is less interconnectedness in non-resident debt and equity portfolio flows to our sample of emerging...

This paper studies how the lender structure of external debts affects open economies' credit conditions via a model with heterogeneous lenders of different sizes. While atomic lenders take the collateral price as given, large lenders internalize the pecuniary externality whereby selling...

We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households' long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new borrowing generates a predictable hump-shaped path of future debt service. We...

In the past decade, Germany has been the world champion in exporting capital (“Exportweltmeister”). No other country invested larger amounts of savings outside its borders. However, we find that Germany plays in the third division when it comes to investment performance. To show this, we...

We empirically examine the correlation between extreme episodes of sectoral capital inflows, using a sample of 50 advanced and emerging economies from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4. We document that a sudden stop in one financial sector is often accompanied by a surge in another sector, especially in...

In the pre-democracy world, people living in monarchies chanted "long live the king!" as they saluted the monarch (the existing or the new). Now the U.S. government is chanting “long live the dollar!” but the voices of its biggest supporters like-minded allies are more tranquil than...

Recent financial crisis shows a similar trend where the financial crisis follows an asset bubble. Such an asset bubble could be in stocks or the housing market. What is common is that the assets are not easily unwound given their size of investment (stocks) or long-term nature of the investment...

The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate...

This paper examines possible heterogeneity in the direct and spillover effects of capital control on gross capital flows. First, I introduce signaling effect of capital control in a portfolio choice model with a multi-country set up to demonstrate the possibly heterogeneity in the direct effect...

In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a...

The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate...