Search Results - subject_exact:"Causality analysis"

Unraveling the nexus between road transport infrastructures and economic growth : empirical insights from Nepal's case

Sharma, Keshab Kumar; Bhandary, Netra Prakash; Subedi, … - 2024

Sustained efforts and investments in different sectors are essential for the overall development of a region. Various studies around the globe underscore the importance of investment in road transport infrastructure in many developing countries to achieve their development targets. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015071132

The relationship between financial development and renewable energy consumption in the European Union-27 countries

Saimagambetova, Gaukhar; Abubakirova, Aktolkin; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616818

Earning while learning : how to run batched bandit experiments

Kemper, Jan; Rostam-Afschar, Davud - 2026

Researchers typically collect experimental data sequentially, allowing early outcome observations and adaptive treatment assignment to reduce exposure to inferior treatments. This article reviews multiarmed-bandit adaptive experimental designs that balance exploration and exploitation. Because...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616878

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Earning while learning : how to run batched bandit experiments

Kemper, Jan; Rostam-Afschar, Davud - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Dynamic causality between CO₂ emissions, urbanization and economic growth in India and South Africa

Singh, Gopal Ji; Singh, Pawan Kumar; Kumar, Rakesh; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616905

An introduction to double/debiased machine learning

Ahrens, Achim; Chernozhukov, Victor; Hansen, Christian; … - 2026

This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects that are needed to identify the target parameter but are not of primary interest. Nuisance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616936

Energy consumption and economic growth in Kazakhstan : a causality analysis using time series methods

Mutaliyeva, Aigul; Kazanbayeva, Zhanar; Balabekova, Dina; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617011

Learning from many experiments : a hierarchical bayesian framework for decomposing marketing treatment heterogeneity

Ebbes, Peter; Ascarza, Eva; Netzer, Oded - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618264

Causal analysis of demand-side economic growth sources using agent-based modelling

Chudziak, Szymon - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618469

Financial development and renewable energy investment in MENA countries : a panel DOLS and granger causality approach

Sharairi, Mohammad Haroun - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618528

An analytical framework for causal decision-making in international trade

Vanegas-López, Juan Gabriel; Pérez-Aguirre, Carlos Andrés - 2026

In international trade, selecting an Incoterm is a critical decision impacting costs and risks. Previous quantitative studies relied on traditional econometric models imposing strict linearity, limiting causal interpretation. This study addresses this gap by applying a causal inference framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654282

The causal effects of tariff uncertainty on consumers' macroeconomic expectations and spending plans

Candia, Bernardo; Mitchell, James; Pfajfar, Damjan - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619007

Do eco-labels pay off? : causal evidence from Japanese firms

Okajima, Shigeharu; Okajima, Hiroko; Shirao, Naohiro; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015562103

Bayesian causal inference for credit default risk

Pitso, Sello Dalton; Michael, Taryn - 2026

Banks often assume that higher credit limits increase customer default risk because greater exposure appears to imply greater vulnerability. This reasoning, however, conflates correlation with causation. Whether increasing a customer's credit limit truly raises the likelihood of default remains...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614384

On local overidentification and efficiency gains in modern causal inference and data combination

Chen, Xiaohong; Xie, Haitian - 2026 - Revised version: March 1, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616461

Causal effects of interest rate beliefs on firm decisions and their aggregate implications

Bartscher, Alina Kristin; Duernecker, Georg; Goensch, … - 2026

We study firms' financial and real decisions after an exogenous change in their interest rate beliefs induced by a survey experiment with an information treatment. Firms revise their expectations downward after learning about the European Central Bank's policy rate. Moreover, we find a reduction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593212

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Causal effects of interest rate beliefs on firm decisions and their aggregate implications

Bartscher, Alina Kristin; Duernecker, Georg; Goensch, … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

An unholy alliance : the relationship between organized crime and corruption in Italy

Chiariello, Valentina; Dincer, Oguzhan - 2026

We investigate the long-run relationship between organized crime and corruption using data from 20 Italian regions over 30 years. As Rose-Ackerman and Palifka (2018) argue, corruption and organized crime often go together. Our study contributes to the literature in several ways in terms of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015596747

CLARE : A Causal machine Learning Approach to Resilience Estimation

Kilic, Talip; Letta, Marco; Montalbano, Pierluigi; … - 2026

This paper proposes a new resilience index, CLARE (Causal machine Learning Approach to Resilience Estimation), which is rooted in an impact evaluation framework and causal machine learning algorithms applied to longitudinal household survey data. The indicator is model-agnostic, data-driven,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015597430

Regression adjustment for estimating distributional treatment effects in randomized controlled trials

Oka, Tatsushi; Yasui, Shota; Hayakawa, Yuta; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015554928

Is academic-track schooling worthwhile without college? : decomposing monetary returns to education

Krumme, Anna; Westphal, Matthias - 2026

We estimate monetary wage returns to academic-track education, Germany’s elite secondary school type granting university entrance. Because academic-track attendance and subsequent university education are institutionally linked, we disentangle their contributions using a causal mediation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015586954

Warming up the assets : modelling the role of global warming on green financial assets under bearish, normal and bullish market conditions

Usman, Ojonugwa; Ozkan, Oktay; Alola, Andrew Adewale; … - 2026

Global warming remains one of the greatest threats to the sustainability of the planet. The literature is replete with studies investigating the economic effects of global warming with very little attention being paid to the financial ramifications. To this end, the present study attempts to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015603745

Noncausal AR processes driven by causal GARCH volatility

Velasquez-Gaviria, Daniel; Zakoïan, Jean-Michel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604163

Natural disasters and child labor in Brazil

Santos, Priscila S. dos; Kassouf, Ana Lúcia; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606168

Weak instrument bias in impulse response estimators

Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015606655

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Weak instrument bias in impulse response estimators

Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Weak instrument bias in impulse response estimators

Lewis, Daniel J.; Mertens, Karel - 2026

Book / Working Paper

A panel threshold analysis of the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth in selected MENA countries

Selmey, Mousa Gowfal Selmey Gowfal; Kammoun, Ali Abdelbasset - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620311

Access to energy consumption and economic growth : evidence from South Asian perspective

Zahid, Hesan; Jillani, Hammna; Sabolovič, Mojmír - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620693

The investing-saving relationship debate between opposing views : a panel analysis across main economic regions

Focacci, Antonio - 2026

This paper focuses on an empirical analysis of the relationship between investing and saving, taking into account various economic regions. The economic aggregates are selected following the International Monetary Fund (IMF) standard classification. The investigation is developed within the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625989

Causal inference on regression discontinuity designs by high-dimensional methods

Arai, Yoichi; Seo, Myung Hwan; Otsu, Taisuke - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626459

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Causal inference on regression discontinuity designs by high-dimensional methods

Arai, Yoici; Otsu, Taisuke; Seo, Myung Hwan - 2019

Book / Working Paper

Stock market development and economic growth nexus : evidence from the fragile five countries

Helhel, Yeşim - 2026

In emerging markets, stock markets play a crucial role in supporting long-term growth. This study explores the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in the Fragile Five countries-Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey-covering the period from 2001...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628387

Empirical challenges in the capability approach : measuring capability sets and unfreedom through counterfactual comparisons

Gotoh, Reiko; Kambayashi, Ryo - 2026

This study addresses a fundamental challenge in the empirical application of the Capability Approach: the measurement of the "capability set" as an opportunity set. Unlike standard utility-based measures that focus solely on achieved outcomes, measuring capability requires assessing the welfare...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637677

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Empirical challenges in the capability approach : measuring capability sets and unfreedom through counterfactual comparisons

Gotoh, Reiko; Kambayashi, Ryo - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Testing IV validity and LATE interpretation using flexible covariate specifications

Krumme, Anna; Westphal, Matthias - 2026

Building on the testable implications for IV validity underlying local average treatment effect (LATE) estimation, we (i) propose a simple testing procedure that may accommodate high-dimensional covariates and (ii) demonstrate that it can also detect biases arising from misspecified IV...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638105

Harnessing genetic variants for local average treatment effect estimation

Bia, Michela; Menta, Giorgia; Huber, Martin; … - 2026

When multiple instruments are available, conventional instrumental variable estimators aggregate across potentially heterogeneous margins of compliance and may yield effects that lack a clear economic interpretation. The problem is compounded when some instruments violate the exclusion...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638521

Technology exports and electricity use in Turkey : nonlinear frequency evidence

Gezer, Mesut Alper - 2026

This paper investigates the nexus between medium- and high-technology exports and electric- ity consumption from 2016M1 to 2025M05 in Turkey. Nonlinear features in the data lead the use of a Smooth Transition Regression model that shows entrepreneurial expansion which intensifies electricity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639179

Economic causality in light of philosophical concepts : distinctly idiosyncratic

Hayo, Bernd - 2026 - This version: 16 May 2026

Design-based econometrics, centred on average treatment effects in the potential-outcomes framework, treats causal effects as population-level expectations under hypothetical interventions and thereby offers an expectation-based, mechanism-agnostic conception of causality. This conception is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643182

Climate policy uncertainty and housing prices : analyzing bidirectional transmission across U.S. metropolitan areas

Batabyal, Sourav; Gormus, Alper - 2026

This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and residential housing prices across U.S. metropolitan areas using the U.S. CPU index developed by Gavriilidis in 2021 and monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, covering January 1991 to May 2024....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656212

A practical guide to instrumental variables methods with heterogeneous treatment effects

Słoczyński, Tymon; Sun, Liyang; Uysal, Selver Derya - 2026

Instrumental variables (IV) methods are central to applied microeconomics. While classical approaches assume linear models with constant effects, recent literature has shifted toward the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework to accommodate heterogeneous treatment effects. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656256

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A practical guide to instrumental variables methods with heterogeneous treatment effects

Słoczyński, Tymon; Sun, Liyang; Uysal, Selver Derya - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Monetary tightening and corporate default risk : evidence from floating-rate debt exposure

Şengül, Aykut; Çinko, Levent - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647294

Perceptions of workplace sexual harassment and support for policy action

Bhalotra, Sonia; Ridley, Matthew - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647362

On causal inference with model-based outcomes

Arkhangelsky, Dmitry; Yanagimoto, Kazuharu; Zohar, Tom - 2026

We study the estimation of causal effects on group-level parameters identified from microdata (e.g., child penalties). We demonstrate that standard one-step methods (such as pooled OLS and IV regressions) are generally inconsistent due to an endogenous weighting bias, where the policy affects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650738

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On causal inference with model-based outcomes

Arkhangelsky, Dmitry; Yanagimoto, Kazuharu; Zohar, Tom - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Spillover gridlock: revisiting interference in difference-indifferences

Lasso-Jaramillo, Daniel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650842

Temporal dynamics of market microstructure in cryptocurrency perpetual futures : econometric evidence from centralized and decentralized exchanges

Zhivkov, Petar; Todorov, Venelin; Georgiev, Slavi - 2026

We apply rolling-window econometric methods, including GARCH(1,1) estimation, Bai-Perron structural break detection, CUSUM stability testing, and Granger causality analysis in bivariate VAR frameworks, to analyze the temporal dynamics of market integration in cryptocurrency perpetual futures,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652336

The causal interaction between innovations, specialization, start-ups, qualifications, and subsidies : a spatial VAR analysis for various industries in Germany

Celebioglu, Fatih; Brenner, Thomas - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652687

The causal effect of debt on interest rates

Bhatt, Abhik; Diercks, Anthony M.; Eyal, Benjamin; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653194

Wage-price links and inflation expectations : time-varying evidence from the US and UK

Korkos, Ioannis - 2026

Links between wages, prices, and inflation expectations are examined for the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) using time-varying Granger causality tests applied to monthly (US 1983-2025; UK 2001-2025) and quarterly (US 1967-2025; UK 1985-2025) data. Pass-through is episodic and sector-specific...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653680

Estimating treatment effects with limited exogeneity : a machine learning approach to selection bias

Sun, Rui; Chen, Shiyi - 2026

This paper presents a novel method for estimating treatment effects in cases where prior knowledge of the exogeneity of the treatment variable is limited. We employ a machine learning technique, double selection via Lasso, to identify a robust set of control variables without requiring prior...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633562

The impact of global sanctions on foreign direct investment : a staggered difference-in-differences approach

Jinji, Naoto; Kawaguchi, Shigenobu - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633617

Heterogeneous effects and the interpretation of OLS coefficient movements

Weinhardt, Felix - 2026

Applied researchers commonly interpret coefficient movements across OLS and difference-in-differences specifications with varying controls as evidence of bias reduction or improved identification. This note shows that such interpretations generally fail under heterogeneous treatment effects. In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015634009

Density-valued VAR models with latent factors

Matsuda, Yasumasa; Haddad, Michel Ferreira Cardia - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636230

The emergence of wage-price spirals : implications for monetary policy response

Boymatova, Mushtariy - 2026

This paper examines the interaction between nominal wage dynamics and consumer price inflation in Uzbekistan, with the aim of assessing the risk of wage-price spirals in an emerging market context. Using quarterly data covering the period from 2007 to 2025, the analysis investigates whether wage...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637319

One instrument, many treatments: instrumental variables identification of multiple causal effects

Angrist, Joshua D.; Santos, Andres; Tecchio, Otávio - 2026

Many instrumental variables applications specify a single Bernoulli treatment. But instruments may change outcomes through multiple pathways or by varying treatment intensity. Lottery instruments that boost charter school enrollment, for instance, may affect outcomes by lengthening time enrolled...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573626

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One Instrument, Many Treatments : Instrumental Variables Identification of Multiple Causal Effects

Angrist, Joshua D.; Santos, Andres; Tecchio, Otávio - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Does regional funding drive efficiency or indebtedness? : causal evidence from the Spanish Autonomous Communities

Onrubia, Jorge; Quiñones, Hugo; Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesús - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665471