Search Results - subject_exact:"Chow test"

The dynamics of FDI inflows, economic growth, trade openness and CO₂ emissions in India : an ARDL approach with structural breaks

Manickam, Tamilselvan; Vijayakumar, N. C.; Kumar, G. Sathis - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616869

What drives emissions intensity in Azerbaijan's light industry? : evidence from ARDL with structural breaks

Güläliyev, Mayis; Aliyev, Shafa; Musayeva, Jamila; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616942

Has IPO market structure fundamentally changed? : evidence from negative binomial regression with structural breaks

Herley, Michael D. - 2026

This paper introduces Bai-Perron structural break detection combined with negative binomial regression to model overdispersed U.S. IPO count data. Using monthly data from 1995 to 2024, we identify five breaks that partition IPO activity into six distinct regimes, each with fundamentally...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591143

Long-run linkages and parameter instability in the gold–silver relationship, 2010-2025

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Palomares, Antonio Fons; … - 2026

This paper examines long-run linkages and possible instabilities in the gold–silver price relationship using daily futures prices over the period from 4 January 2010 to 28 November 2025. The empirical analysis includes unit-root and cointegration tests as well as endogenous structural break...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626655

Long-run transition vs. short-run adjustment : modeling Slovakia's macroprudential policy path

Kupkovič, Patrik - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627250

Revisiting energy demand elasticity : the power of regime switch

Hindriks, Jean; Paré, Lucie; Serse, Valerio - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638707

A structural break analysis of Wine Spectator’s Top 100, 1988-2025

Gokcekus, Omer - 2026

Using Wine Spectator's Top 100 lists for 1988-2025, this note applies Bai-Perron structural break tests to regional and country shares and identifies three distinct periods: 1988-1997, 1998-2015, and 2016-2025. Real prices decline across phases, with the sharpest drop in the most recent period,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638981

Climate policy uncertainty and housing prices : analyzing bidirectional transmission across U.S. metropolitan areas

Batabyal, Sourav; Gormus, Alper - 2026

This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and residential housing prices across U.S. metropolitan areas using the U.S. CPU index developed by Gavriilidis in 2021 and monthly S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, covering January 1991 to May 2024....

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656212

What explains Bitcoin volatility? : evidence from an extended HAR framework

Lu, Zhaoying; Fang, Yuanju - 2026

This study investigates the dynamics of Bitcoin's realized volatility by extending the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) framework to incorporate external shocks from major financial and commodity markets, namely the NASDAQ-100, Brent crude oil, and gold. To capture potential asymmetries,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652109

Temporal dynamics of market microstructure in cryptocurrency perpetual futures : econometric evidence from centralized and decentralized exchanges

Zhivkov, Petar; Todorov, Venelin; Georgiev, Slavi - 2026

We apply rolling-window econometric methods, including GARCH(1,1) estimation, Bai-Perron structural break detection, CUSUM stability testing, and Granger causality analysis in bivariate VAR frameworks, to analyze the temporal dynamics of market integration in cryptocurrency perpetual futures,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652336

External price shock vulnerability in import-dependent economies : the case of the Republic of Moldova and a commodity import price index

Diavor, Mircea - 2026

This study examines the Republic of Moldova's macroeconomic vulnerability to external commodity price shocks (1992-2025) using the IMF's Commodity Import Price Index (CIPI) combined with time series analysis and a mixed-frequency VAR model linking monthly price data to quarterly GDP. Four key...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676472

When attention matters most : investor focus, returns, and volatility during COVID-19

DileepKumar, Devika - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676302

Heterogeneous regional convergence in the European Union : club dynamics, structural breaks, and spatial spillovers

Mockevičienė, Greta; Butkus, Mindaugas - 2026

This study examines income convergence among EU NUTS-2 regions from 2000 to 2023 using a combination of Phillips-Sul (PS) club convergence methodology, β-convergence, and spatial econometric models. The results reveal that regional convergence in Europe is heterogeneous and nonlinear: four...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676333

Survey design and professional forecasters : the case of uncertainty in the US SPF

Knüppel, Malte; Pavlova, Lora - 2026

Histogram forecasts of inflation and growth from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) allow for an assessment of the evolution of forecast uncertainty. However, this assessment is complicated by structural breaks in measured uncertainty arising from changes in histogram bin widths...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015636379

Crypto is coming of age : the case of Bitcoin's rising beta

Drexler, Alejandro H.; Güttler, André; Sun, Angela - 2026

This paper shows that Bitcoin has transitioned from a largely idiosyncratic crypto asset into a risk-on asset with returns resembling that of the broad U.S. stock market. We estimate time-varying Bitcoin betas with respect to a tech-heavy stock index (NASDAQ), a broader economy equity index (Dow...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072491

Confidence sets for the date of a weak mean break in functional data

Lin, Yicong - 2026

We develop confidence sets for the date of a single mean break in functional data when the break may be too weak to be consistently detected. Under each maintained null, segmentwise demeaning removes the unknown mean and break functions, so valid inference does not require consistent detection...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072842

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Morocco : revisiting the evidence with 2SLS

El Ghali Ghorafi, Fatine - 2026

Background and Motivation: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been widely examined as a potential driver of economic growth, yet empirical evidence for Morocco remains inconclusive due to methodological limitations and endogeneity concerns. This study re-examines the FDI-growth relationship in...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015676459

Real-time monitoring for stock return predictability in nonstationary volatility environments

Demetrescu, Matei; Schmidt, Fabian; Taylor, Robert - 2026 - Version 2.0

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073560

From liberalization to fragmentation : new evidence on global tariff dynamics in the WTO era

Öztürk, Nil Sirel - 2026

This study aims to investigate the long-run dynamics of global tariff convergence and the emerging fragmentation in the post-2018 period. Focusing on the USA, China, Japan, the European Union and the world average between 1990 and 2020, the research examines whether countries with initially...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016069391

Impact of a Major Event in CEMAC under Vision 2030: evidence from Congo, 1974-2021.

Kuikeu, Oscar - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016082122

SME loans and economic growth nexus in Kazakhstan : evidence from ARDL, FMOLS, and Bai-Perron structural break analysis

Azretbergenova, G. Ž.; Syzdykova, Aziza; Beisekova, Perizat - 2026

This study investigates the relationship between SME loans and economic growth in Kazakhstan using quarterly data covering the period 2010Q1-2025Q3. While the finance-growth nexus has been extensively studied, empirical evidence focusing specifically on SME credit remains limited, particularly...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016087268

Causal machine learning for macroeconomic forecasting under structural breaks and economic uncertainty

Abouzaid, Oumaima; Boussedra, Faouzi - 2026

Macroeconomic forecasting has become increasingly challenging in environments characterized by structural breaks, nonlinear dynamics, and elevated economic uncertainty. Traditional econometric forecasting models frequently experience substantial predictive deterioration during periods of...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016089807

The Digital Maturity Paradox : the divergent impact of network readiness and FDI across development tiers

Moolio, Pahlaj; Haque, Md Jamirul; Uddin, Kazi Md. Nasir; … - 2026

Contemporary economic growth trajectories are characterized by accelerating digital integration. However, the digital infrastructure required to accelerate growth remains unevenly distributed across development tiers. This study examines a "Digital Maturity Paradox" using a cross-sectional...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016089809

AI events, persistence, and volatility in US utility and AI-exposed stocks : the AI-power channel

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Sosa, … - 2026

This paper examines whether four AI events between 2022 and 2025 - ChatGPT, GPT-4, the EU AI Act vote, and DeepSeek - changed the behaviour of fourteen US-listed stocks. The focus of the analysis is on two utilities that signed power purchase agreements with large AI companies, Constellation...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016089912

Public education expenditure and economic growth in Egypt : an ARDL bounds testing approach

Elseraty, Amr M.; Kammoun, Ali Abdelbasset; Sallam, … - 2026

The relationship between public education spending and economic growth remains contested in developing economies, where quality, not just quantity, of investment may matter most. This study examines whether public education expenditure has driven economic growth in Egypt over 1980-2023,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016091936

Understanding agricultural labour productivity in Kazakhstan : long-run and short-run relationships with government expenditure, agricultural credit, and inflation

Murat, Amanzhol; Azretbergenova, G. Ž.; … - 2026

Improving agricultural labour productivity is essential for enhancing agricultural competitiveness, rural development, and long-term economic sustainability, particularly in transition economies where agriculture continues to play a strategic role. Although previous studies have examined the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016092003

Who pays the environmental price of global integration? : evidence from CO₂ emissions and GVC participation

Zambrano-Monserrate, Manuel A.; Hernández Soto, Gonzalo - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654417

Structural change in post Keynesian monetary theory : a Non-Compensatory Disequilibrium Framework

Túñez-Area, Narciso - 2025

Post Keynesian Economics has shifted away and even renegade from Keynes' original research program, i.e., the Unemployment Equilibrium thesis, endogenous money and liquidity preference determination of interest rate in which money and uncertainty play a fundamental part. This paper attempts to...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015549054

Trends of relative commodity prices with comovements and structural breaks

Lee, Junesoo; Islam, Md. Towhidul; Tieslau, Margie A.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015579735

Time-varying shock transmission in non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Strohsal, Till - 2025

This paper analyzes possibly time-varying shock transmission in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models when the reduced-form VAR coefficients are time-invariant and the shocks are identified through non-Gaussianity. To check for possible time-variation in the impulse responses, we propose...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015324819

Multiple structural breaks in interactive effects panel data models

Ditzen, Jan; Karavias, Yiannis; Westerlund, Joakim - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372714

Systemic risk of Chinese non-financial corporations based on structural break analysis and network test

Zhu, Zongyuan; Luo, Qingtian - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638913

Exploring the tourism and economic growth relationship in Vietnam : a cointegration analysis with model-specific structural breaks

Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh; Stauvermann, Peter; Lien Thi Mai Dau - 2025

In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis to examine the resilience of tourism in Vietnam since the Doi Moi period. Using an augmented Solow framework, data from 1986 to 2020, and the ARDL approach, we estimate the long-run and short-run effects, whilst accounting for model-specific...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015210381

When simplicity fails : forecasting Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals in Macao during structural breaks with a hybrid economic-search model

Luo, Xiaoqing - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652536

Exploring the impact of irrigation on China's crop TFP : insights from a structural break analysis

Zhou, Tiantian; Liu, Xingshuo; Jia, Siying; Sheng, Yu - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015331887

Convergence of gender unemployment gaps in Africa : new evidence from Fourier ADF and KPSS unit root tests with break

Furuoka, Fumitaka; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Yaya, OlaOluwa S.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633037

Do financial market openness and stock market returns drive economic growth in GCC countries? : new investigation from panel structural breaks

Saidi, Hichem; Rachdi, Houssem; Hakimi, Abdelaziz; … - 2025

This paper revisits the effects of financial market openness and stock market returns on economic development in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries over the period 1993-2022. We performed the panel stationarity test advanced that accommodates the presence of multiple structural breaks and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338294

A rising tide raises all boats : the changing distribution of salaries in the NBA over time

Strazicich, Mark; Dawson, John W.; Groothuis, Peter Andrew - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669541

Combining forecasts under structural breaks using Graphical LASSO

Lee, Tae-hwy; Seregina, Ekaterina - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668055

Testing for persistence in real house prices in 47 countries from the OECD database

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Dominguez, Alfonso; … - 2025

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of persistence in real house prices at the quarterly frequency in 47 countries from the OECD Database using fractional integration methods. The sample period varies depending on data availability, the longest series being the Japanese one (from...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015197275

Do shocks to tourism receipts have a transitory or persistent nature? : a comparison of traditional and artificial intelligence-based analytical procedures

Kocak, Emrah; Bulut, Umit; Bakir, Selim - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672632

Testing for multiple structural breaks in multivariate long memory regression models

Less, Vivien; Rodrigues, Paulo M. M.; Sibbertsen, Philipp - 2025

This paper focuses on the estimation and testing of multiple breaks that occur at unknown dates in multivariate long memory time series regression models, allowing for fractional cointegration. A likelihood-ratio based approach for estimating the breaks in the parameters and in the covariance of...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015200188

An investigation on the effects of oil price, industrial production and agricultural production on inflation in Kazakhstan using the toda-yamamoto model with structural breaks

Talimova, Lyazat; Sembekov, Amir Kateyevich; Kuchukova, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015416973

From conventional to unconventional monetary policy : is the Taylor Rule an adequate representation in macro models?

Dean, James; Schuh, Scott - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672642

Equity market linkages across Latin American countries

Guidi, Francesco; Madonia, Giuseppina; Sarwar, Sohan - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015425047

Determinants of mutual fund flows in the Indian stock market : insights through the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bounds-testing approach with structural breaks

Kumari, Madhu; Debnath, Prallad - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073296

A CUSUM test for breaks in fractional cointegration

Fitter, Krischan; Sibbertsen, Philipp - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015472815

Low frequency movements and SVAR analyses

Canova, Fabio; Fosso, Luca - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617612

Stock market efficiency and COVID-19 with multiple structural breaks : evidence from India

Bhatia, Madhur - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016084928

Do shocks to electricity consumption generate persistent effect? : Evidence from hunan province in China

Xiang, Sheng; Zheng, Mingbo; Yang, Hongming; He, Yushuan; … - 2025

This study explores the stationary property of electricity consumption for Hunan province in China over the period January 2013 to April 2023. Our analysis uses the panel stationarity tests, which take into account the factor structure and structural breaks. The results indicate supportive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015431653