The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several...

This aim of this paper is to analyse possibilities and potential effects of soft commodity derivative market on the development of risk management practice within the CEE. Agricultural producers and other participants in the soft commodity market in CEE are lacking local commodity market. As a...

Like copper, corn, or crude oil, companies increasingly trade like commodities. Some investors — certain holders of debt, activist shareholders, and controlling shareholders, especially private equity funds — are focused solely on returns. In practice, this means that they care about the...

This study explores the impact of infectious disease and geopolitical risks on time varying correlations between stock and commodity returns. Findings suggest that commodities play important roles of hedging and/or safe haven in response to unprecedented infectious disease or geopolitical...

In this paper, we use the improved Diebold & Yilmaz method based on TVP-VAR-SV model to analyze dynamic connectedness between energy, precious metal, industrial metal, agriculture and livestock commodity markets. The results show that the energy, industrial metal, and precious metal commodity...

Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the...

In 1987, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began analyzing whether swaps were futures under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). If yes, over-the-counter (OTC) swaps would violate the CEA’s exchange trading requirement. Rather than address this in a proposed rulemaking, the CFTC...

Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...

The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several...

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one...

In our study, we individually forecast 26 metal prices one-month ahead and outperform the predefined benchmark model, a random-walk (with drift) in 18 (18) cases. These forecasts are based on an overview over a large set of potential predictors for mineral commodities, originating from studies...

Using panel data 43 developing countries over the period 1980-2010, the paper examines the impact of the Commodity Terms of Trade (CTOT) Index on the real GDP per capita growth in developing countries. The study finds that for all countries in the sample, an increase in the CTOT index...

This paper uses annual data to study the interaction of consumer and commodity prices in 15 economies over the period 1850-1913. We find that consumer price inflation in all 15 countries co-moves with a broad measure of changes in commodity prices. Consumer prices comove most strongly with...

Threshold cointegration is introduced as an econometric technique to model the impact of trade disruptions on spatial price transmission in commodity markets so that market participants and policy makers can understand the global impact of trade disruptions on prices. The threshold cointegration...

This paper analyzes two simple wage rules that keep employment constant when there are shocks to the prices of imported materials. One rule ties nominal wages to the GNP deflator rather than the consumer price index. The second rule, followed by Japan after the second oil price shock, ties the...

The classical theory of commodity price determination integrates myopic supply and demand on the one hand with competitive storage (speculation) under rational expectations on the other. Taking into account the fact that inventories mist; be non-negative, this paper derives from the theory...

Plant-based meat is an innovative and sustainable type of food that has been received with enthusiasm by consumers and investors. It is also a threat for the demand of traditional meat and for those crops used primarily as animal feed. In 2019, 59% of global corn and 83% of global soybean...

This paper reviews the more recent literature addressing different facets of speculation in commodity markets, including the role of speculators and the impact that financialization in recent years. While speculation and financialization can theoretically destabilize commodity markets, the...

This aim of this paper is to analyse possibilities and potential effects of soft commodity derivative market on the development of risk management practice within the CEE. Agricultural producers and other participants in the soft commodity market in CEE are lacking local commodity market. As a...

There is a considerable urgency in addressing the impact stemming from the production of certain agricultural commodities on ecosystems and local communities. Forest-risk commodities (FRCs) such as cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy, maize and beef generate negative impacts on deforestation,...

This paper investigates the time-varying volatility patterns of some major commodities as well as the potential factors that drive their long-term volatility component. For this purpose, we make use of a recently proposed GARCH-MIDAS approach which typically allows us to examine the role of...

We present a stochastic-local volatility model for derivative contracts on commodity futures able to describe forward-curve and smile dynamics with a fast calibration to liquid market quotes. A parsimonious parametrization is introduced to deal with the limited number of options quoted in the...

Short-term forecasting is usually made in recent literature by modeling the spot price of commodities such as coffee and cattle with ARIMA models and in some articles including volatility models. Unlike such articles, herein the models of the spot price of coffee and cattle are estimated...

The paper reviews the debate about transparency in extractive industry commodities trade. It examines the obstacles to improved transparency. A critical review of the experience with estimating losses from a lack of transparency concludes that many of the published estimates of losses from...

A feature of modern globalization processes is their vulnerability to the volatility of short-term capital flows, which, combined with the growing volatility of commodity prices, have created serious difficulties for the economic policies of commodity-oriented countries. Therefore, the study of...