For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

Bellicose theories of state-building suggest that wars enable the emergence of strong states via the mechanism of increased war-time fiscal capacities. We explore the hitherto littleanalysed micro-level foundations of this claim. Does the experience of war increase public support for higher...

As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder-a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional...

This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid- 2024, the experiments reached nearly 10,000...

This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from 3 experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia's invasion. Conducted between 2023 and 2024, the experiments reached 10,000 students across Ukraine. The program...

As seldom before, the current war in Ukraine has seen the use of World War II analogies by belligerents and also some Western non-belligerents. They thereby follow in the footsteps of such political leaders as Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin, or John F. Kennedy. Indeed, statesmen...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

This study aims to develop an analytical framework for understanding the social and economic outcomes of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine by studying its impact on the labor market and migration, the economy and trade, social capital, and volunteering in Ukraine. The main economic and...

The ongoing war in Ukraine poses significant challenges to the country's economy and environmental sustainability, and the use of green finance can be a key tool for post-war economic recovery and sustainable development by attracting resources for environmentally friendly and innovative...

Based on empirical evidence, this research: highlights the timeline of changes in Ukrainian agricultural sector since the onset of the full-scale war in 2022 and the maritime blockade affecting exports; examines the relevant transformation of the illegal grain market amid these extraordinary...

In post-war elections a large number of citizens vote for political parties with deep roots in the violent organizations of the past. However, despite the prevalence of rebel, militia, and military successor parties, their success varies dramatically. This study explores the correlates of civil...

Russia is going to great lengths to ensure that the war in Ukraine is perceived by its citizens as a distant military operation that does not affect them directly. But the consequences of both the war and the forced integration of the occupied Ukrainian territories are large-scale, diverse and...

In the period March 2022 to June 2024, nearly €796 billion of aid was approved either under the Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework or directly under the Treaty and based on TCTF principles. Around €219 billion was actually granted to companies, representing 27% of the aid approved and...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

The war in Ukraine triggered a big energy crisis, which particularly escalated in the winter of 2023 throughout all Europe. The crisis was a good opportunity for policymakers to encourage people to save electricity in the household. The aim of this paper is to analyse the changes in electricity...

This study is based on exploratory research to test the ability of artificial intelligence (AI) to shape human behaviour, testing on a recent geopolitical event, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. Thus, text, image and video were generated using artificial intelligence, tracking users'...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The collapse of the family dictatorship was made possible by shifts in regional and international power dynamics. Key factors included Turkish support for the rebels, the...

Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Western countries have been providing military assistance to Ukraine. However, relative to GDP, the support from the small Baltic and Nordic countries has been greater than that of the larger European NATO countries. This article...

Objective: In contrast to countries directly involved in military conflicts or terrorism, where the impact on tourism has been always reported negatively, the conclusions for neighbouring countries were not entirely unequivocal: they either suffered from the proximity of warfare or benefited...

Objective: This paper explores the pivotal role of the digitalisation of public administration services as part of the development of the digital economy in post-war Ukraine. It aims to analyse how this factor contributes to rebuilding and modernising the nation's economic and administrative...

This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and...

We use causal inference analysis with Bayesian structural time series modelling to identify the changes in the direction and amplitude of Ukrainian and Polish consumer and professional inflation expectations after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The study spans January 2018-March 2024. The...

The European security order is dysfunctional and particularly affected by the crisis of multilateralism. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), founded as a forum for promoting cooperative security and standardsbased cooperation, today is an expression of the weakness of...

This report presents the results of a rapid damage and reconstruction assessment, conducted by the World Bank, related to the impacts of the 2011-24 conflict in Syria. This assessment is intended to provide an estimate of the overall scale of damage and reconstruction cost due to the conflict...

Research background: Within the research area of value relevance (VR), the impact of macroeconomic changes is usually analysed. The influence of economic crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, global financial crisis, and COVID-19, on VR was, however, inconclusive. Moreover, it differs...

The Standard Eurobarometer 102.2 (ST102) survey of autumn 2024 was conducted from 10 October to 5 November 2024 in 38 countries or territories: the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU), eight candidate countries (Albania, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Türkiye and...