This study develops a machine learning framework to improve the prediction of automobile loan defaults by integrating explainable feature selection with advanced resampling techniques. Using publicly available data, we compare Logistic Regression, Random Forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting...

Britain's debt was nil in 1688 and 60% of GDP in 1717. From 1717 to 1722 the debt was restructured, including through the South Sea operation of 1720. I discuss the reasons for the restructuring and the tensions it revealed between taxpayers and creditors. The South Sea bubble turned the...

The Global Emerging Markets Risk Database Consortium (GEMs) is a joint initiative between the European Investment Bank and the International Finance Corporation; it was established in 2009 to pool credit risk data. This database is a unique example of a tangible common good and is designed to...

Which strategic capabilities simultaneously drive innovation and learning from failures (LFF)? We address this question with two objectives. First, synergies between innovation performance, failures, and LFF strategies are assessed. Second, heterogeneities in the determinants of these processes...

In a struggling and volatile economy like Pakistan, studying corporate financial distress (FD) is critically important. The current sustainability-oriented economic dynamics have made the connection between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and FD particularly relevant, as CSR can enhance...

We show that credit constraints significantly increase the risk that firms are infiltrated by organized crime, defined as the covert involvement of criminal organizations in corporate decision-making. Using confidential data on criminal investigations, credit ratings, and loan histories for the...

This paper examines how accurately Swedish banks' internal probability of default (PD) models under IFRS 9 accounting rules predict changes in the borrowing firms' credit risk levels. Using a sample of matched bank lending and firm-level data, we find that PDs align well with aggregate...

This article is focusing on the economic literature attempting to solve the problem of the impossible trilemmas of the euro area, by reconciling the relations between the three essential pillars - supranational monetary independence, national fiscal independence and the no bail-out clause...

Frame of the research: Effective risk assessment is central to managerial decisionmaking in financial institutions, corporate finance, and strategic planning. Drawing from prior studies on default risk, this paper investigates how the predictive ability of financial indicators varies depending...

The aim of this work is to analyze the factors that help companies avoid liquidation following the spirit of the Spanish insolvency law. This work focuses on the phase starting when companies file for bankruptcy and ending with the completion of the common phase. We apply the agency theory to...

A recurring question in the mortgage default literature is why underwater default is rare relative to model predictions. We find that one answer is miscalibration of flow payoffs. We build a novel, detailed quantitative model of mortgage default and find that realistic rent dynamics plus mild...

This study predicts bankruptcy among Indian firms using artificial intelligence-machine learning (AI-ML) methods, demonstrating their superior performance over traditional statistical models. Addressing class imbalance through oversampling techniques such as the synthetic minority oversampling...

The main objective of this article is to determine the entrepreneurial determinants of Moroccan business failures. To address our research problem, we employ multiple regression models. Entrepreneurial behaviors and attitudes are sourced from the dataset provided by Global Entrepreneurship...

Countries differ in their approaches to the treatment of tax claims in insolvency. Historically, most countries have granted priority to tax claims. In the late 20th century, however, some countries abolished or reduced tax priorities at the same time that sweeping insolvency reforms were...

Countries around the world are introducing or improving their personal insolvency regimes, but frequently the effects of these reforms are not evaluated, and the reforms themselves are not supported by adequate data analysis. This paper proposes the establishment and implementation of data...