Since the Covid-19 pandemic, many economic policy protocols have come under scrutiny regarding their ability to handle unforeseen events and systemic effects. In particular, inflation targeting regimes have been questioned due to significant inflationary deviations resulting from a substantial...

This report evaluates the computational reproducibility and analytical robustness of Exley and Kessler's (2024) investigation into "motivated errors," which suggests that individuals may rationalize selfish behavior by attributing their errors to confusion. Using the original data and code, we...

Trust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to large errors in central banks' inflation forecasts, or given...

Establishing causal relationships is a core aspect of empirical economics. Borrowing ideas from the medical sciences, we propose tentative guidelines for reliable causal inferences that cover aspects related to both the study itself and its fit with the existing background knowledge. Moreover,...

We examine public trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) and its determinants using data from the Bundesbank Household Panel survey for Germany. Employing an interdisciplinary approach that integrates insights from political science and psychology, we offer a fresh perspective on the factors...

This study explores public opinion for reducing fossil fuel subsidies in Angola, identifies strategies that can shift public opinion, and analyzes variations in support based on respondents’ area of residency and gender. It uses data from a survey of 598 respondents and focus groups involving...

Immigration was central both to the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign and to the political narratives that followed it. Yet the trajectory of migration to the UK since the referendum bears little resemblance to the expectations - or promises - articulated at the time. This paper provides an...

Knowledge-hiding (KH) behaviors undermine innovation and collaboration, making it critical to understand their antecedents and identify effective countermeasures. Drawing on social information processing theory and social identity theory, this study develops and empirically tests a dual...

This paper examines how firm perceptions influence the transmission of fiscal policy. Using natural language processing on corporate earnings calls from 51 countries over two decades, we construct Fiscal Perceptions Indicators (FPI) that capture the incidence, risk framing, and tone of fiscal...

We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting.We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both...

The European Central Bank needs to be the public anchor for all euros, including retail and wholesale digital currency. Abandoning a retail version would be a mistake. The European Union needs to protect the euro's credibility and can do this best if there is no void in the financial architecture.

We develop a dynamic model where heterogeneous firms take investment decisions depending on their beliefs on future carbon prices. A policy-maker announces a forward-looking carbon price schedule but can decide to default on its plans if perceived transition risks are high. We show that weak...

We show that the announcement of the ECB's Strategy Review and the revision of its inflation target in summer 2021 went largely unnoticed by the wider public. Although it is hard to reach out to this group, we find evidence that communicating key elements of the strategy can enhance the...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...