The article develops a stylized medium-run post-Kaleckian open economy model with conflict inflation and combines two existing specifications of the income share targets of workers and firms. In the model, only the target of firms is directly affected by the real exchange rate. Workers do not...

This paper calculates the exchange rate pass through (ERPT) with time constant and time varying coefficients for Colombia between 2006 and 2023. It then estimates the ERPT during four specific depreciation events during the period of analysis: the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014-2016 fall in...

The article develops a stylized medium-run post-Kaleckian open economy model with conflict inflation and combines two existing specifications of the income share targets of workers and firms. In the model, only the target of firms is directly affected by the real exchange rate. Workers do not...

The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, highfrequency bilateral trade data and gravity...

Aim: The study evaluated the impact of devaluation and goods price variation on trade flows in a sample of 47 countries consisting of developing and developed nations from 1990 to 2023. Design/Research methods: The estimation techniques adopted in this work are the Panel Structural VAR (PSVAR),...

The Russian authorities have been battling strong depreciation pressures, with the rouble having lost around 30% of its value since early 2023 (and inflationary pressures having risen strongly). The main reason for this is the declining supply of foreign exchange from foreign trade transactions,...

RationaleIn Latin America, it is not unusual to see exchange rate depreciations in excess of 20% in a single year. Although depreciation tends to stimulate a country’s net external demand, it does not always lead to increased output. It is worth understanding which channels may explain this...

In 2002 Uruguay faced a sudden stop of international capital flows, inducing a deep financial crisis and a large devaluation of the peso. The real exchange rate depreciated and exports expanded. Paradoxically, export shares and real exchange rates negatively correlate among Uruguayan exporters...

Policy approaches to the enforcement and licensing of standard-essential patents in wireless communications markets reflect the competing interests of entities that specialize in the innovation or implementation segments of the technology supply chain. This same principle can anticipate the...

This paper explores the relationship between devaluing the dollar and inflation, examining both the theoretical frameworks and historical examples that shed light on this complex issue. While some argue that devaluation can decrease inflation by reducing demand or increasing the supply of goods...

Changing geopolitics sheds light on the importance to develop better understanding on the liability of foreignness through the rise of authoritarian states and the decline of democratic states and liberalism that hollow out democratic institutions and norms within and between countries because...

The U.S. real effective exchange rate is at its highest level since 1985. In that year, the U.S. and its trading partners coordinated a depreciation of the dollar and the U.S. agreed to reduce its budget deficit. This paper reports that a dollar depreciation today would still improve U.S. trade...

While it is often argued that exchange rate depreciation has a beggar-thy-neighbour effect, in this paper, we investigate, whether exchange rate depreciation has a beggar-thyself effect. Specifically, we explore the distributional consequences of exchange rate movements. Using a heterogeneous...

Devaluation of the currency has been stipulated and utilized increasingly as a stabilization device in developing countries. The Ethiopian government employed a devaluation policy to improve the export performance of the country. However, various literature demonstrates that the devaluation of...

While it is often argued that exchange rate depreciation has a beggar-thy-neighbour effect, in this paper, we investigate, whether exchange rate depreciation has a beggarthyself effect. Specifically, we explore the distributional consequences of Exchange rate movements. Using a heterogeneous...

In 2002 Uruguay faced a sudden stop of international capital flows, inducing a deep financial crisis and a large devaluation of the peso. The real exchange rate depreciated and exports expanded. Paradoxically, export shares and real exchange rates negatively correlate among Uruguayan exporters...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the biggest armed conflict in Europe since WW2, and undoubtedly it has a significant impact on global financial markets. Motivated by the theory and empirical evidence on the flow-oriented models, we examine the role of prior currency exchange rate depreciation...

In this paper, I discuss the implications for emerging countries of the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in advanced jurisdictions, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Euro Zone. The analysis identifies benefits as well as costs. Among the former, one of the...

This working paper was written by Cho-Hoi Hui (Hong Kong Monetary Authority) and Tsz-Kin Chung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority).The economic-political instability of a country, which is tied to its credit risk, often leads to sharp depreciation and heightened volatility in its currency. This paper...

Fiscal devaluations—an increase in import tariffs and export subsidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsidies (VP)—have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed...

Exchange rate pass through (ERPT) has been a major determinant of domestic inflation in Brazil after the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime in 1999. This paper investigates whether there is asymmetry in the magnitude and speed of adjustment of the inflation rate when there is an...

This paper studies the consumption response to an increase in the domestic value of foreign currency household debt during a large depreciation. We use detailed consumption survey data that follows households for four years around Hungary's 2008 currency crisis. We find that, relative to similar...

In this paper we derive a new model on exchange rate response to a lasting higher interest rate level. Contemporary models do not provide a convincing explanation for this relationship, but recent research suggests that models based on demand-pull effects to be somewhat confined to small funding...

Using matched bank-firm-level data and the 2014 depreciation of the euro, we show that exchange rate depreciations can lead to higher loan supply. Large banks with high net dollar exposure do not increase their lending to non-financial firms, but—through interbank markets—to small banks...

How do households adjust to a large debt shock? This paper studies household responses to a revaluation of foreign currency household debt during a large depreciation in Hungary. Relative to similar local currency debtors, foreign currency debtors reduce consumption expenditures approximately...

Using matched bank-firm-level data and the 2014 depreciation of the euro, we show that exchange rate depreciations can lead to higher loan supply. Large banks with high net dollar exposure do not increase their lending to non-financial firms, but—through interbank markets—to small banks...

This paper develops our analytical model to explore the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment and the timing of the implementation of an adjustment program featuring an official devaluation. The effects of postponing adjustment depend on the source of the original shock,...

US dollar appreciation is associated with a darkening of the economic outlook for emerging market economies (EMEs). Using data from 21 EMEs, we find that a 1 percentage point (ppt) appreciation shock to the dollar against a broad basket of currencies dampens the growth outlook by over 0.3 ppt...

This article shows that the United States Dollar has been unconstitutional since at least the Civil War. Congresses and central bankers often weaken its value. In a previous article, I demonstrated that the largely valueless Dollar causes human poverty and environmental damage. If Congress...

We study the macroeconomic effects of internal devaluations undertaken by a periphery of countries belonging to a monetary union. We find that internal devaluations have large and positive output effects in the long run. Through an expectations channel, most of these effects carry over to the...

We study the aggregate and re-distributive effects of currency devaluations in a small open economy heterogeneous households model with leverage-constrained banks. Our framework captures three stylized facts about liability dollarization in emerging economies: i) banks and firms borrow in...