This study aims to evaluate the public debt sustainability of Pakistan using the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework and fiscal reaction function (FRF). For the empirical analysis, it uses relevant important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, external debt, primary balance,...

This study investigates the impact of South Africa's current account balance on its economic growth from Q1 2015 to Q4 2022 using Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) technique. This study incorporates qualitative variables like COVID-19 to understand its effect on the South African current...

The current account (CA) balance indicates a country's savings-investment position; sustained deficits require foreign capital. To monitor Colombia's external vulnerability risk, we estimate a normative CA level using an unbalanced panel model based on long-run fundamental structural variables....

We present new empirical evidence on the role of granularity in the current account (CA), using a unique and comprehensive firm-level dataset for Switzerland. We show that idiosyncratic shocks to large firms account for almost two thirds of the fluctuations in the headline CA and are the primary...

This paper explores how global economic and financial imbalances have evolved amid rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. While globalisation and technological change have had a positive impact on global growth and poverty reduction, they have also led to increased inequality,...

This research uses linear correlation and time-series analysis to examine the evolution of the external debt accumulated in periods of current account deficits and reserve purchases. Statistical data of GIPS countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), Ireland, and the United States show that...

We develop a dynamic multi-country Ricardian trade model with aggregate uncertainty, where trade imbalances emerge as countries exchange goods and assets. We introduce a method for computing counterfactuals in this setting, which doesn't require specifying the stochastic process of shocks or...

This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT,...

The paper explores the impact of inflation on the validity of the twin deficits hypothesis (TDH) in the Eurozone countries, focussing on how different inflation levels influence twin deficit existence (i.e., a positive relation between fiscal and current account deficit) and how inflation...

The study examines the degree of current account deficit (CAD) sustainability and capital mobility for a panel of 97 countries over the period 1980-2020. To this end, the study adopts a novel interpretation of the Feldstein-Horioka coefficient in the context of CAD sustainability and examines...

Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance...

This article will examine eight factors and evaluate the probability of Azerbaijan's manat devaluation in the post-oil period. However, there is no proportionality between the degree of influence of the listed factors and their ranking.

We empirically test Gabaix and Maggiori (2015)’s prediction that currencies are repriced by the country’s external capital dependence when financial constraints of FX intermediaries change. Using solvency indicators, we develop a novel intermediary constraints index capturing riskbearing...

This study aims to assess the situation of the Current Account and Savings Account ratio (CASA ratio) among listed joint stock commercial banks (JSCBs) in Vietnam. Analytical data sourced from the Financial Statements and Annual Reports of 27 banks over 6 years (2018 - 2023) reveals that the...

Somalia has been a stateless nation for over two decades, where government institutions have been destroyed and malfunctioned, including the central bank. Consequently, this ruled out the control and regulation of the money supply and exchange rate by the central bank. This study investigates...

This paper documents that cross-border investment income flows are important for explaining current account balances in major economies. Those investment incomes reflect returns on cross-border asset holdings and on balance often reach magnitudes around 5% of major economies' gross domestic...

This year’s report provides the external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies on the basis of their 2023 data. With tight monetary policy conditions in key advanced economies continuing in 2023, the US dollar remained strong in 2023 and early 2024 by historical standards,...

Pakistan's political economy has been characterized by some interesting and arguably unique features in recent decades. The combination of two stands out, in particular: (1) lifetime uncertainty for elected governments, and (2) a high degree of certainty that, due to reasons that are largely...