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  • Search: subject_exact:"DSGE model"
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Year of publication
Subject
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DSGE model 3,627 DSGE-Modell 3,237 Dynamisches Gleichgewicht 1,935 Dynamic equilibrium 1,902 Theorie 1,466 Theory 1,449 Monetary policy 1,079 Geldpolitik 1,070 Schock 820 Shock 813 Bayesian inference 582 Bayes-Statistik 580 Impact assessment 519 Wirkungsanalyse 519 Konjunktur 518 Business cycle 516 Neoclassical synthesis 464 Neoklassische Synthese 464 Schätzung 396 DSGE models 395 Estimation 393 VAR model 363 VAR-Modell 356 Fiscal policy 297 Finanzpolitik 293 Eurozone 270 Euro area 269 Bayesian estimation 261 Finanzkrise 244 Prognoseverfahren 244 Financial crisis 242 Forecasting model 242 Small open economy 230 USA 228 DSGE 226 Kleine offene Volkswirtschaft 225 United States 222 Financial supervision 216 Finanzmarktaufsicht 216 Estimation theory 213
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Online availability
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Free 2,290 Undetermined 1,013 CC license 54
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 2,420 Article 1,303 Other 1
Subcategories
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Working paper 1,619 Article in journal 1,210 Book section 73 Proceedings 33 Literature review 14 Government document 7 Introduction 2 Textbook 2 Case study 1
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Language
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English 3,506 Undetermined 182 French 12 German 8 Spanish 6 Russian 3 Polish 2 Korean 1 Norwegian 1 Portuguese 1 Romanian 1 Ukrainian 1
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Author
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Minford, Patrick 98 Schorfheide, Frank 74 Meenagh, David 72 Theodoridis, Konstantinos 49 Funke, Michael 48 Le, Vo Phuong Mai 46 Lindé, Jesper 45 Kolasa, Marcin 44 Vogel, Lukas 41 Wickens, Michael R. 37 Maih, Junior 36 Del Negro, Marco 33 Ratto, Marco 33 Smets, Frank 31 Xu, Yongdeng 31 Ferroni, Filippo 30 Mumtaz, Haroon 29 Pisani, Massimiliano 27 Canova, Fabio 26 Gupta, Rangan 26 Lozej, Matija 26 Matthes, Christian 25 Priftis, Romanos 25 Wouters, Rafael 25 Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús 24 Gelain, Paolo 24 Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A. 24 Herbst, Edward P. 24 Inoue, Atsushi 24 Kollmann, Robert 23 Meyer-Gohde, Alexander 23 Aruoba, S. Borağan 22 Jacquinot, Pascal 22 Coenen, Günter 21 Levine, Paul 21 Röger, Werner 21 Hohberger, Stefan 20 Paccagnini, Alessia 20 Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume 20 Trabandt, Mathias 20
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Institution
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National Bureau of Economic Research 60 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 15 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 14 Banque de France 8 European Central Bank 8 CESifo 6 Economics Section, Cardiff Business School 6 Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, University of St. Andrews 5 Economics Department, Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques (OCDE) 5 Suomen Pankki 5 Bank of England 4 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences 4 European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 4 Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Recherche Économiques et Finance Internationales (LAREFI), Université de Bordeaux 4 Sveriges Riksbank 4 BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 3 Center for Financial Studies 3 School of Economics, University of Surrey 3 Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos, Suomen Pankki 3 Society for Computational Economics - SCE 3 Banco Central de Reserva del Perú 2 Banco de España 2 Banco de la Republica de Colombia 2 Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Économiques et l'Emploi (CIRPÉE) 2 Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University 2 Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine 2 Deutsche Bundesbank 2 Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs, European Commission 2 Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble (D3E), Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE) 2 EconWPA 2 Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) 2 Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft, Freie Universität Berlin 2 HAL 2 Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan 2 Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas (IVIE) 2 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2 Latvijas Banka 2 Nationale Bank van België/Banque national de Belqique (BNB) 2 Národná Banka Slovenska 2 Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas (NIPE), Universidade do Minho 2
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Published in...
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Economic modelling 76 Journal of economic dynamics & control 69 IMF working papers 65 NBER working paper series 59 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 54 NBER Working Paper 54 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 49 Working paper series / European Central Bank 47 Working paper 46 Journal of macroeconomics 41 Cardiff economics working papers 40 European economic review : EER 39 International journal of central banking : IJCB 39 ECB Working Paper 38 IMF Working Paper 34 Macroeconomic dynamics 32 Discussion paper 30 Discussion papers / CEPR 30 Economics letters 30 Journal of international money and finance 28 CAMA working paper series 27 Journal of monetary economics 27 Computational economics 24 Working paper / Norges Bank 23 Cardiff Economics Working Papers 22 International finance discussion papers 21 CESifo working papers 20 Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research / Monetary economics and fluctuations 20 Working paper series 20 International review of economics & finance : IREF 19 Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the Econometric Society 19 Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability 19 Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia 18 FEDS Working Paper 17 Bank of England Working Paper 16 Discussion paper series 16 Journal of applied econometrics 16 Working paper series / Czech National Bank 16 CEPR Discussion Papers 15 CESifo Working Paper 15
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 3,317 RePEc 252 EconStor 152 Other ZBW resources 2 BASE 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 2,611
 
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The effects of oil revenue allocation between accumulation and current use on macroeconomic responses to external and internal shocks in a small oil-exporting economy
Mukhamediyev, Bulat; Khitakhunov, Azimzhan; … - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620185
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Impact of capping emissions on macroeconomic volatility : the case of Saudi Arabia
Galeottib, Marzio; Manzanoc, Baltasar; Pierru, Axel - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637816
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A Bayesian estimation of monetary policy effects on macroeconomic dynamics in Sierra Leone : a new Keynesian DSGE approach
Daboh, Foday; Jackson, E. A.; Tamuke, Edmund - 2025
This paper conducts a Bayesian assessment of a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model in the context of Sierra Leone's economy by utilising quarterly data from 2011 to 2022. It examines how monetary policy, demand shocks, and cost-push shocks affect selected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605324
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Macroeconomic effects of economic policies during the COVID-19 pandemic
Yasuoka, Masaya; Hasegawa, Ryoji - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015123157
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Germany’s Swift Package of Business Tax Breaks Aimed at Stimulating Investment
Funke, Michael; Terasa, Raphael - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615980
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Monetary and fiscal implications of commodity price shocks for commodityexporting small open economies
Naraidoo, Ruthira - 2026
Commodity-exporting economies, such as South Africa, are susceptible to wide fluctuations in their business cycles, closely tied to commodity price fluctuations. In this research, we develop a prototype dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with specific features for emerging small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614249
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Monetary and fiscal implications of commodity price shocks for commodityexporting small open economies
Naraidoo, Ruthira - 2026
Book / Working Paper
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KOOMA : a DSGE model of the Finnish economy
Koponen, Kristine; Niemeläinen, Julia; Elmgren, Peter; … - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616841
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Informal labor market, inflation and monetary policy
Piscopo, Aniello - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609214
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Severe weather and financial (in)stability
Foroni, Claudia; Gelain, Paolo; Lorusso, Marco; … - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609530
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Severe weather and financial (in)stability
Foroni, Claudia; Gelain, Paolo; Lorusso, Marco; … - 2026
Book / Working Paper
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Severe weather and financial (in)stability
Foroni, Claudia; Gelain, Paolo; Lorusso, Marco; … - 2026
Book / Working Paper
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Monetary policy and the output gap in DSGE models for small open economies : insights from the Czech Republic
Šestořád, Tomáš; Vlček, Jan; Musil, Karel - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610401
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Securitization, bank regulation, and the macroeconomy
Luintel, Kul B.; Torres, José L. - 2026
We develop a general equilibrium framework in which a commercial banker, constrained by capital adequacy requirements, creates a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to hold securitized assets off its balance sheet. By operating the bank and SPV as separate entities, the banker circumvents regulation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612431
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Regime shifts in U.S. trend inflation : pre-Volcker to post-great moderation
Hu, Ruopu; Maith, Junior; Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi - 2026 - This version: March 6, 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615812
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Exogenous fluctuations : DSGE models
Nicoletti, Giulio; Pensieroso, Luca - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015597400
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Germany's swift package of business tax breaks aimed at stimulating investment
Funke, Michael; Terasa, Raphael - 2026
Germany has introduced a comprehensive package of staggered business tax breaks to accelerate business investment and give new momentum to economic growth. The key components of the so-called investment booster program are a temporary tax write-off on machinery and other equipment investments to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015586899
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Markov-switching DSGE modeling in RISE
Maih, Junior; Hashimzade, Nigar; Kirsanov, Oleg; … - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015604809
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Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison
Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2026
This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a...
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Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison
Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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Macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes : a model comparison
Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Durand, Luigi - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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European temporary migration in a two country DSGE model
Budnik, Katarzyna - 2026
Free movement of labour across borders can influence business cycle dynamics in the affected countries. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of temporary migration using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to represent the "old" EU Member States...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641348
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Reserve requirement ratio and capital flows : a regime-switching DSGE estimation for China
Hu, Ruopu - 2026 - This version: March 31, 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015647392
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Sequential solution for DSGE models with deep neural networks
Ferrari, Massimo Minesso; Frenzel, Carla - 2026
This paper develops a sequential deep learning algorithm for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The algorithm trains a deep neural network to approximate the model's policy functions across four progressive phases: steady-state anchoring, exploration around the steady...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650845
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An energy New Keynesian DSGE model for South Africa
Cassiem, Abdul; Liu, Guangling - 2026
This paper develops an energy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study the impact of climate change on the South African economy. The model incorporates an energy producer within a standard sticky-price framework and links environmental damages to macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651827
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Foreign exchange intervention and financial stability
Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Jackson, Timothy P.; Silva, … - 2026
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015574482
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The models and analysis behind the Bank of Finland's forecasts for the Finnish economy
Sariola, Mikko; Viertola, Hannu - 2026
The Bank of Finland produces forecasts for the Finnish economy using advanced modelling tools. Central to this process is its Aino model, which is a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that integrates various aspects of the Finnish economy. The forecasts support policy decisions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666638
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Estimation of DSGE models by non-Gaussian vector autoregressions
Martinoli, Mario; Di Francesco, Damiano; Moneta, Alessio; … - 2026
We propose a new impulse response matching procedure for estimating the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models from observed macroeconomic time series. The estimator is based on an indirect inference framework in which the auxiliary model is a structural vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667205
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Forbearance vs foreclosure in a general equilibrium model
Barbaro, Bianca; Tirelli, Patrizio - 2021
We build a business cycle model characterized by endogenous firms dynamics, where banks may prefer debt renegotiation, i.e. non-performing exposures, to outright borrowers default. We find that debt renegotiations only do not have adverse effects in the event of financial crisis episodes, but a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012488660
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Forbearance vs Foreclosure in a General Equilibrium Model
Barbaro, Bianca; Tirelli, Patrizio - 2023
Book / Working Paper
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A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency
Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, … - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014472446
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A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency
Asimakopoulos, Stylianos; Lorusso, Marco; Ravazzolo, … - 2023
Book / Working Paper
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Should the loss-aversion behavior be significant for central bankers evidence from behavioral economics
Erfani, Alireza; Talebbeydokhti, Azadeh - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015400824
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Fiscal and macroprudential policies during an energy crisis
Priftis, Romanos; Schoenle, Raphael - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015432183
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The Impact of Shadow Banking on the Transmission of Monetary Policy in Iran: A DSGE Model Approach
Zarei, Mehran; Esfandiari, Marziyeh; Mirjalili, Seyed … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015484210
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FX interventions as a form of unconventional monetary policy
Cwik, Tobias; Winter, Christoph - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015564483
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A Bayesian estimation of monetary policy effects on macroeconomic dynamics in Sierra Leone: A new Keynesian DSGE approach
Daboh, Foday; Abraham Jackson, Emerson; Tamuke, Edmund - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605039
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Iterative refinement of the QZ decomposition for solving linear DSGE models
Huber, Johannes; Meyer-Gohde, Alexander - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015466989
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Iterative refinement of the QZ decomposition for solving linear DSGE models
Huber, Johannes; Meyer-Gohde, Alexander - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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Monetary policy shocks and narrative restrictions : rules matter
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Pellegrino, Giovanni; Særkjær, … - 2025
Imposing restrictions on policy rule coefficients in vector autoregressive (VAR) models enhances the identification of monetary policy shocks obtained with sign and narrative restrictions. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical analyses for the United States and the Euro area support this result....
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Monetary policy shocks and narrative restrictions : rules matter
Castelnuovo, Efrem; Pellegrino, Giovanni; Særkjær, … - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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Frequency and severity of current account reversals : an analysis with a rational expectations regime switching DSGE model
Hamano, Masashige; Murakami, Yuki - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323637
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Default risk, risk premium, and corporate resilience : the role of regulatory and stabilization policies
Firano, Zakaria; Karaouch, Doha - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015324374
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How does news-driven monetary policy frictions affect nonperforming loans? : taking Chinese commercial banks as an example
Zhang, Heng-Guo; Wang, Shihong; Xie, Yuchi - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371997
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Fat-tailed DSGE models : a survey and new results
Dave, Chetan; Sorge, Marco M. - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372567
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Fat tailed DSGE models : a survey and new results
Dave, Chetan; Sorge, Marco M. - 2023
Book / Working Paper
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Monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil and the behavioral approach
Freitas, Raphael José Pereira - 2025
Purpose This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross...
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Complementarities between capital buffers and dividend prudential target
Di Virgilio, Domenica; Duarte, Maia - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372876
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Trend Inflation in the Japanese pre-2000s : a Markov-Switching DSGE
Kato, Ryo; Maih, Junior; Nishihama, Shin-Ichi - 2025
In Japan, the inflation rate declined to near-zero, whereas the monetary policy faced a zero lower bound (ZLB) in the 1990s. We examine whether trend inflation had fallen to near-zero prior to the ZLB. To achieve this, we estimate Japanese pre-2000 trend inflation developing a Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333298
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Flow-specific capital controls for China
Garcia-Barragan, Fernando; Kiu, Guangling - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333588
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Essays on dynamic macroeconomics : from structural parameter estimation to the evaluation of central bank policies
Castellanos Silván, Juan - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015334636
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Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post-Crisis US facts? : evidence from a full DSGE model
Liu, Chunping; Minford, Patrick; Ou, Zhirong - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338034
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Fiscal and macroprudential policies during an energy crisis
Priftis, Romanos; Schoenle, Raphael - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015583428
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Fiscal and macroprudential policies during an energy crisis
Priftis, Romanos; Schoenle, Raphael - 2025
Book / Working Paper
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Differentiable, filter free Bayesian estimation of DSGE models using mixture density networks
Naubert, Christopher - 2025 - Last updated: January 16, 2025
I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015187509
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Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises : an endogenous regime-switching approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2025
We develop a new model of cycles and crises in emerging markets, featuring an occasionally binding borrowing constraint and stochastic volatility, and estimate it with quarterly data for Mexico since 1981. We propose an endogenous regime‐switching formulation of the occasionally binding...
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Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: an endogenous regime-switching approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises : an endogenous regime-switching approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises : an endogenous regime-switching approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises : an endogenous regime-switching approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises : An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
Benigno, Gianluca; Foerster, Andrew; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2022
Book / Working Paper
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Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises : An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach
Benigno, Gianluca - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises : An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
Benigno, Gianluca - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Beyond one-size-fits-all : designing monetary policy for diverse models and frequencies
Dück, Alexander; Verona, Fabio - 2025
We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...
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Is there PPP in the data? : new evidence from a structural DSGE model
Minford, Patrick; Ou, Zhirong; Zhu, Zheyi - 2025
There has been a long-running debate in international macroeconomics about whether there is purchasing power parity (PPP) in the data. But while the literature has been dominated by reduced-form evidence focusing on the real exchange rate dynamics including its long-run behaviour, little...
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The drivers of inflation in Korea : insights from a small open DSGE model
Kim, Kyunghun - 2025
This study analyzes the drivers of inflation in South Korea using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the characteristics of Korea as a small open economy. Employing quarterly data from 1999Q2 to 2023Q2, Bayesian estimation is used to estimate Korea-specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418135
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The natural rate of interest and convergence
Ertl, Martin; Rabitsch, Katrin - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015418793
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Time-varying inflation target and unbiased Taylor rule estimation
Brault, Joshua; Haque, Qazi; Phaneuf, Louis - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015420431
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