Egypt has experienced a sharp rise in external debt over the past decade, increasing from USD 55.8 billion in 2015 to over USD 165.3 billion by 2023. Despite maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio within internationally accepted thresholds (approximately 45% in 2023), the country faces mounting...

This paper assesses the exchange rate risk exposure of Tunisia's external public debt portfolio using the delta-normal Value at Risk (VaR) approach. Based on daily data from 2004 to 2019, focusing on the main borrowing currencies (the euro, US dollar, and Japanese yen), the study identifies the...

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals emphasize the need to assist developing countries in achieving long-term debt sustainability. Global corporate debt has repeatedly reached record levels, and the associated financial costs pose a significant threat to sustainable development. This...

How does convenience yield interact with sovereign risk and the supply of government bonds? We propose a model of sovereign debt and default in which convenience yield arises because investors are able to pledge government bonds as collateral on financial markets. Convenience yield is dependent...

This paper investigates the goals, costs, and benefits of official-sector purchases of government securities for the purpose of restoring market functionality. We explore the design of market-function purchase programs, including their communication, triggers, operational protocols, exit, and...

ypical debt sustainability metrics characterize Kenya's sovereign debt as "unsustainable" since around 2019. Further, the data show that, over time, commercial banks' private sector lending has declined while lending to the government has grown. Given these observations, this study examines...

Political risk is a significant determinant of sovereign debt dynamics. We estimate the sensitivity of bond yields and economic growth to a country-level broad proxy of political risk and develop a stochastic debt sustainability analysis optimization model with both yields and growth channels to...

This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. We attribute this to hedge funds'...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

This paper introduces the African Debt Database (ADD) - a new, comprehensive dataset that traces both domestic and external debt instruments at a granular level. The main innovation is a detailed mapping of Africa's domestic debt markets, drawing on rich, new data extracted from government...

Britain's debt was nil in 1688 and 60% of GDP in 1717. From 1717 to 1722 the debt was restructured, including through the South Sea operation of 1720. I discuss the reasons for the restructuring and the tensions it revealed between taxpayers and creditors. The South Sea bubble turned the...

Public debt has increased steadily over the years, leaving many countries at risk of debt distress and even pushing some to default. This paper analyses the impact of sovereign default on post-default debtto-GDP ratios in 144 countries from 1980 to 2019. Applying the entropy balancing method, we...

Leveraging a unique dataset that combines country-level information on debt restructuring with firm-level data from theWorld Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) spanning from 2004 to 2023, we analyze the effects of debt restructuring on firm sales growth. Using recent advancements in...

This paper provides a primer on the role of debt modelling in developing a sovereign debt issuance strategy, and how the policy objectives of a sovereign debt manager influence design decisions within their models. The insights provided here are supported by current and past uses of the Canadian...

This paper examines how IMF policies contribute to the inequality in MENA, and to a Middle-Income Trap (MIT). Developing a theory expanding Acemoglu and Robinson's "Narrow Corridor" framework, it shows how IMF conditions align domestic elite incentives with creditor interests through a...

How can the euro area's return to fiscal sustainability be organised in view of soaring debt levels and the sovereign debt crisis? How can debts be financed efficiently, not least to prevent debt crises in weaker countries where high debt levels compounded by a hike in risk premiums on...

Research background: This study explores the impact of inflation targeting on external debt in lowincome countries, filling a gap in understanding its effects on debt management in these countries. Purpose: Our research aims to determine whether the adoption of inflation targeting can lead to a...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation with New Zealand discusses that tight monetary policy has helped bring inflation back to target after a prolonged period of elevated price pressures, but at the expense of growth. A nascent recovery is underway as monetary policy is easing again. House prices...

This paper highlights the First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The SMP takes into account Haiti's fragility and capacity constraints, linked to security. Haiti faces a multidimensional crisis with a challenging outlook which is highly uncertain. The country is affected by both...

This paper presents Republic of Kosovo's Fourth reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Kosovo's economic performance continues to be strong. In 2024, growth was 4.4 percent, driven by household consumption, supported by strong...

This paper presents Pakistan's First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF). The IMF Executive Board completed the first...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Costa Rica has achieved remarkable economic progress due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. Such factors are expected to support robust growth going forward notwithstanding external headwinds. The economic outlook is...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that following the post-pandemic rebound, St. Kitts and Nevis' economy is facing challenges. Real gross domestic product growth moderated to 1.5 percent in 2024, reflecting lower contributions from tourism and government services, while inflation eased...

This paper presents Mali's Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Request for a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Mali's economy faces climate shocks amid security and humanitarian crisis, and tight financing. Recent flooding damaged infrastructure and agriculture,...