Extreme weather events pose an economic threat to farms. The risk management behaviour against such events is often studied using prospect theory as a framework, but empirically deriving corresponding parameters in the field involving farmers is challenging. To address this issue, we compare...

Data from three surveys before and after the 2022 mass shootings in Buffalo and Uvalde provide a natural experiment to assess perceptions and valuations of mass shootings. The degree of overestimation of mass shooting risks surged following these tragedies. The odds of believing that mass...

We consider a standard one-agent decision-making problem under risk and we address the following question: under what conditions is utility maximization equivalent to 'risk' minimization, where the measure of risk used by the decision-maker is a conservative coherent risk measure?

The impact of sentiment on asset prices varies during periods of low and high ambiguity and risk and across countries. Examining stock market returns across twenty-nine countries, we show that the predictability of sentiment is more pronounced when ambiguity is low in Australia, Canada, Czech...

We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a “loss-exit” strategy—planning to continue...

This article studies insurance demand in a two-period framework in which an individual faces risks in both current and future periods. Models for insurance with and without the presence of endogenous saving are both discussed. In contrast to what most literature suggests, when decisions on...

Artificial Intelligence (AI) scientists are challenged to create intelligent, autonomous agents that can make rational decisions. In this challenge, they confront two questions: what decision theory to follow and how to implement it in AI systems. This paper provides answers to these questions...

We develop interpretable, quantitative indices of the objective and subjective complexity of lottery choice problems that can be computed for any standard dataset. These indices capture the predicted error rate in identifying the lottery with the highest expected value, where the predictions are...

Purpose - This paper aims to provide empirical evidence for using the prospect theory (PT) basic assumptions in the Argentine context. Mainly, this study analysed the financial decision-making process in students of the economic-administrative academic area of two universities, one public and...

We present comparative performance of cryptocurrencies by the performance index based on the Aumann-Serrano –henceforth, AS– economic index of riskiness. We consider three cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance-coin, which have the largest market capitalizations among all...

Politicians, CEOs and various other types of dictators make social choices that influence both their own and others' welfare. When a dictator's preferred alternative differs from recipients', it is unclear which preferences they aggregate and how they determine this set of admissible...

We examined the interplay between risk attitudes and prosocial behavior in the context of a pandemic. To do so, we developed a theoretical framework and conducted an online experiment involving more than 3,000 participants. Through a framed risk elicitation task, the experiment explored how...

In developing world, the risk behavior of farmers is very crucial as their daily risk and uncertainty decisions affect their livelihood and overall well-being in the long run. Recent studies related to risky choices among poor farmers found varied results in various countries. Present study...

Many financial situations present individuals with simple alternatives to solving complex problems. The value of these alternatives depends on whether individuals are sophisticated and know when they are better off opting out of complexity. We tested complexity's effects and evaluated...

Using customer data from a large fintech company offering “guaranteed” Euro certificates of deposits from various European banks, we document considerable heterogeneity in offered interest rates for the same maturity across and within countries for such a simple product. We find that 11% of...

This paper studies a mean-risk portfolio choice problem for log-returns in a continuous-time, complete market. It is a growth-optimal portfolio choice problem under risk control. The risk of log-returns is measured by weighted Value-at-Risk (WVaR), which is a generalization of Value-at-Risk...

Use of preference information to infer risk tolerance has increased in recent years as a way to inform benefit-risk evaluations in regulatory and medical decision making. However, a framework for the measurement of tolerance for multiple uncertain outcomes has not been formalized when choices do...

We analyze individual investment behavior among 822 young men and women that are members of 111 formal business groups in northern Ethiopia. We collected baseline data and investment data one year later combined with incentivized field experiments to obtain dis-aggregated risk preference data....

Influential economic approaches as random utility models assume a monotonic relation between choice frequencies and "strength of preference," in line with widespread evidence from the cognitive sciences, which also document an inverse relation to response times. However, for economic decisions...

The encouragement of potential investors who are emotionally broken by past losses and market experiences is crucial to the sustainable flow of funds to the stock market. This can be established by building a knowledge-creating mechanism among investors in their cognitive dimensions, which, in...

We use a field experiment and a within-subject design based on multiple Choice Lists (CLs) that integrate time and risk. Diminishing impatience with extended time horizons is studied by varying time horizons from one week to two years. Time-dated risky prospects are constant within CLs and are...

We apply the basic lessons and insights learned in the elicitation and estimation of risk and time preferences literature to the literature on social preferences. Following Andersen et al. (2008), we design a laboratory experiment to jointly elicit risk preferences and preferences for altruism....

We consider the problem where a modeller conducts sensitivity analysis of a model consisting of random input factors, a corresponding random output of interest, and a baseline probability measure. The modeller seeks to understand how the model (the distribution of the input factors as well as...

In an experiment that elicits subjects' willingness to pay (WTP) for the outcome of a lottery, we confirm the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes described by Kahneman and Tversky. In addition, we document a systematic effect of stake sizes on the magnitude and sign of the relative risk premium,...

We investigate what statistical properties drive risk-taking in a large set of observational panel data on online poker games (n=4,450,585). Each observation refers to a choice between a safe "insurance" option and a binary lottery of winning or losing the game. Our setting offers a real-world...

We measure individual-level loss aversion using three incentivized, representative surveys of the U.S. population (combined N = 3,000). We find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss tolerant, with many participants accepting negative-expected-value gambles. This is counter to earlier...

Among the reasons behind the choice behavior of an individual taking a stochastic form are her potential indifference or indecisiveness between certain alternatives, and/or her willingness to experiment in the sense of occasionally deviating from choosing a best alternative in order to give a...