Search Results - subject_exact:"Defence expenditure"

Exploring the role of institutional quality in the crowding-out effect of military expenditure on health expenditure and outcomes in Africa

Badmus, Jamiu Olamilekan; Raifu, Isiaka Akande; … - 2026

This study revisits the long-standing debate on the guns-versus-butter phenomenon, that spending on military activity crowds out non-military expenditure. By focusing on Africa, we conjecture the crowding-out effect of military expenditure on health expenditure beyond government health...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618353

Sectoral investment in input-output frameworks : a reply

Stamegna, Marco; Bonaiuti, Chiara; Maranzano, Paolo; … - 2026

This note responds to the comments by Garbellini (2026) on the treatment of demand shocks in the Input-Output model in Stamegna et al. (2024). We show that the increase in arms expenditure is correctly identified as an investment shock, while increases in public expenditure on environmental...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618378

Spending on the frontline : the macroeconomic implications of rising defence expenditure

Clancy, Daragh; Lozej, Matija - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618425

"Explaining the persistence of defense offsets in a supply-driven arms trade"

Anicetti, Jonata - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593362

Migration background and attitudes towards military service : evidence from sweden's conscription system

Bäckström, Peter - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015595024

Guns and butter : the fiscal consequences of rearmament and war

Marzian, Johannes; Trebesch, Christoph - 2026 - First draft: January 2024, this draft: February 2026

We study the fiscal consequences of large military buildups. To do so, we assemble the Global Budget Database, a comprehensive dataset of disaggregated central government finances for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. We identify 114 episodes of military spending booms, in peace and war, and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015596724

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Guns and butter : the fiscal consequences of rearmament and war

Marzian, Johannes; Trebesch, Christoph - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Guns and butter : the fiscal consequences of rearmament and war

Marzian, Johannes; Trebesch, Christoph - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Military spending and IMF surveillance : an assessment, 2008-2023

Gupta, Sanjeev - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605430

The K(orea)-factor in the Zeitenwende : South Korea and the rebuilding of Germany's defence industrial base

Ballbach, Eric J. - 2026

Germany is facing a security policy Zeitenwende whose industrial dimension has not yet been sufficiently addressed. The war in Ukraine, rising military threats in Europe, and the long-term underfunding of the German Armed Forces have exposed the limits of existing defence industrial capacity,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607341

US defence policy: between isolationism and the pursuit of dominance : contradictions in Washington demand a clear response from Europe

Overhaus, Marco - 2026

US defence policy is characterised by contradictions that are on display once again in the Trump administration’s latest strategy documents. The reasons for this go far beyond the president’s erratic behaviour. At the core lies the unanswered question of how the United States should deal...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015607352

The economic consequences of defence spending

Voss, Bas Heerma van; Leeuw, Daan de; Marotta, Fulvia; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626084

Fiscal and macroeconomic impacts of defence spending

Conigrave, Ben - 2026

Military spending is increasing rapidly as many OECD countries move to shore up defence in a degraded security environment. Larger defence budgets compound strains on public finances from past crises and mounting fiscal pressure from population ageing and the cost of climate change. Many...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015631370

Can Europe deliver NATO's five percent? : fiscal constraints, political feasibility and security beyond spending targets

Bolouri, Armin; Lohse, Tim; Qari, Salmai - 2026

The adoption of NATO's new 5% defence spending target reflects shifting US strategic priorities and places heavy demands on European allies. This article assesses whether European NATO members can realistically meet this target, combining evidence on past and projected military spending, fiscal...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637632

The rise and impact of the military economy in Europe

Stamegna, Marco; Maranzano, Paolo; Mombelli, Sara; … - 2026

Europe's military economy is investigated in this paper with a review of the relevant literature and with an analysis of the rise in military expenditures, of the relationships with long-term growth and structural change, and of the macroeconomic impacts. We consider the group of NATO EU...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644231

Who controls the defense industry?

Becht, Marco; Mejino-López, Juan; Wolff, Guntram B. - 2026

Defence markets exhibit extreme asset specificity and bilateral monopoly. Transaction-cost economics predicts state ownership or control in such circumstances. This paper examines what governments actually do. Ownership alone does not determine control. A state with zero equity can still have...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656328

Defence innovation and procurement reform : an empirical evaluation of the US Defense Innovation Unit

Kapstein, Ethan B.; Ospital, Javier; Wolff, Guntram B. - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016060934

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Defence innovation and procurement reform : an empirical evaluation of the US Defense Innovation Unit

Kapstein, Ethan B.; Ospital, Javier; Wolff, Guntram B. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Does military spending stabilize or destabilize governments? : international analysis

Goel, Rajeev K.; Nelson, Michael A. - 2026

Military spending by nations has the potential to either stabilize governments or destabilize them (via threats of coups, for instance). We study this relationship formally by using a rich dataset on more than 150 countries, spanning nearly two recent decades from 2006 to 2023. Among other...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015651712

Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups

Kapstein, Ethan B.; Ospital, Javier; Wolff, Guntram B. - 2026

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how battlefields are evolving rapidly, with new technologies shaping military strategy and tactics. Increasingly, these technologies are being provided by startup firms, rather than by established contractors. To incorporate these new firms into the defence...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016072731

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Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups

Kapstein, Ethan B.; Ospital, Javier; Wolff, Guntram B. - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Political accountability and the returns to peace

Borbely, Daniel; Bühler, Mathias; Mueller, Joris M.; … - 2026

Why do some economies recover from armed conflict much better than others? We provide evidence that political accountability determines whether post-conflict societies realize the peace dividend. We study Cambodia, where a nationwide landmine clearance campaign created large local potential...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635622

A proposal on European defence governance and financing

Hildebrand, Philipp; Rey, Hélène; Schularick, Moritz - 2026

• Europe must urgently strengthen its defence capabilities and secure strategic autonomy to avoid vulnerability to external pressures. • The proposal outlines a European Future of Defence Architecture focusing on next generation military technologies and strategic enablers (like AI, cyber,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015573258

Moving NATO burden sharing into the future : analyzing burden sharing in the post-cold war era

Runje, Leon; Kotarski, Kristijan - 2026

This paper examines the determinants of NATO military expenditure in the post-Cold War period from 1990 to 2019. It focuses on whether differences among NATO allies can be better explained by economic size, resource endowments, or broader indicators of national capability. Objectives: The study...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667944

Fit for war by 2030? : European rearmament efforts vis-à-vis Russia

Burilkov, Alexandr; Bushnell, Katelyn; Mejino-López, Juan - 2026

This research article presents new data on military procurement in Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), Poland, and France, and uses these data to analyse procurement patterns, delivery timelines, and force-generation constraints against the background of a deteriorating security situation and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665895

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Fit for war by 2030? : European rearmament efforts vis-à-vis Russia"

Burilkov, Alexandr; Bushnell, Katelyn; Majino-Lopez, Juan; … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Fit for war by 2030? : European rearmament efforts vis-à-vis Russia

Burilkov, Alexandr; Bushnell, Katelyn; Mejino-López, Juan - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The economic effects of rearmament : evidence from Nazi Germany

Chambon, Lionel - 2026

Using novel archival data on the German Luftwaffe, I estimate the causal effect of military spending on unemployment in Nazi Germany between 1932 and 1936. Exploiting cross-district variation of supplier locations, I estimate the impact of military procurement on local labor market outcomes. I...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015664850

States as financiers : international lending in war and peace

Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652795

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States as financiers : international lending in war and peace

Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2026

Book / Working Paper

The Zelensky moment : investments in the defense industry and geopolitical risk awareness of European investors

Boermans, Martijn; Galema, Rients; Plantinga, Auke; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671939

Implications of increased defence spending for subnational governments

de Mello, Luiz - 2026

The ongoing increase in defence spending has important and uneven consequences for subnational governments, both through local economic spillovers and public-finance channels. The paper reviews evidence on national and local defence spending multipliers, finding that effects are often positive...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677004

The footprint of defence production : Economic implications

de Mello, Luiz - 2026

As countries around the world raise defence spending, understanding the implications of a defence production footprint for local economies is becoming increasingly important for policy. Yet comparable evidence remains limited, partly because defence procurement data are rarely available at the...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015677010

The legacy of rebel taxation on post-conflict fiscal capacity

Arroyo Petro, Andrea; Bove, Vincenzo; Di Salvatore, Jessica - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016059682

The business of war in the early modern Baltic Sea region, 1530 - 1765

2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016073231

Leading in spending, lagging in innovation : German defence procurement compared to the UK and Poland

Wolff, Guntram B.; Binder, Johannes; Morgan, Thomas - 2026

• This report is built on an update of the Kiel Military Procurement Tracker, covering the UK, Poland and Germany up to January 2026. We show that orders have grown rapidly in frequency, size and number since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, German military...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640521

Russia's regional economies in wartime : fiscal divergence, defence windfalls and transfer pressures

Parviainen, Sinikka - 2026

Russia's regions bear a rapidly growing share of the fiscal costs of war. Since showing surpluses as recently as 2021, the collective regional deficit quadrupled in a single year. Using five years of budget execution reports from the Russian Federal Treasury across all 85 Russian regions...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654218

How governments finance and defund military spending : global evidence on deficits, taxes, and civilian spending

Bolouri, Armin A.; Lohse, Tim; Qari, Salmai - 2026

Using cross-country data for 167 countries with broad post-World War II coverage and historical extensions to earlier periods, we quantify how deficits, taxes, and civilian spending respond to increases and decreases in military spending. On average, deficit financing dominates: a 1 percent-age...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635167

Military spending and developmental outcomes of the social contract in the Middle East

Abid, Senan - 2026

This study examines the impact of military spending on developmental outcomes associated with the social contract in Middle Eastern countries over the period 1995-2023. The Human Development Index (HDI) is used as an indicator of developmental outcomes associated with the social contract. It...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016082695

Bullets and budgets : measuring defense spending multipliers

Jalles, João Tovar; Beirne, John; Park, Donghyun - 2026

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of defense spending shocks in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), with a focus on Asia and the Pacific over 1990- 2023. Using large cyclically adjusted defense shocks identified through local projections, we find that defense spending...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016064058

Terrorism and military expenditure in Africa : an analysis of spillover effects

Boly, Amadou; Kéré, Éric N - 2026

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10016083751

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Terrorism and military expenditure in Africa : an analysis of spillover effects

Boly, Amadou; Kéré, Eric Nazindigouba - 2023

Book / Working Paper

Terrorism and Military Expenditure in Africa : An Analysis of Spillover Effects

Boly, Amadou; Kéré, Eric Nazindigouba - 2022

Book / Working Paper

Violent conflict and cross-border lending

de Haas, Ralph; Mamonov, Mikhail; Popov, Alexander; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015564443

Shadows of war : military action's impact on terror anxiety in Europe

Kechrinioti, Alexandra; Karamanis, Dimitrios - 2025

This article examines the impact of military activities on public perceptions of terrorism within Europe. Utilizing data from the European Social Survey (ESS) database, which includes 92,636 respondents from 27 countries over the period 2005-2008, we analyse how increases in military...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618338

Defense spending, conflict and economic growth in Europe

Knezović, Sandro; Tkalec, Marina - 2025

This study seeks to answer the following research question: How do defense spending and conflict impact economic growth in Europe, and what role does NATO membership play in shaping these dynamics? Using a panel dataset of 40 European countries from 1999 to 2023, the analysis investigates a...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618339

Funding and defunding military spending : 200 years of evidence

Bolouri, Armin A.; Lohse, Tim; Qari, Salmai - 2025

We provide the first global, long-run analysis of how governments fund and de-fund military spending. Constructing a panel of 167 countries from 1817 to 2024, we estimate fiscal responses to armaments and disarmaments, including wartime shifts. Deficit spending is the primary financing policy,...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015547418

The legacy of rebel taxation on postconflict fiscal capacity

Petro, Andrea Arroyo; Bove, Vincenzo; Di Salvatore, Jessica - 2025

Civil wars often erode state sovereignty, as institutions are replaced or co-opted by armed groups that establish informal governance structures. Among these, rebel taxation emerges as a key tool for financing wartime activities and administering territories. We explore whether rebel taxation...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015486039

Funding weapons together (or not) : how to pay for European defence

2025

Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While EU Member States have made substantial new resources available for European defence, and European defence companies are thriving, more needs to be done. National defence spending will likely continue to rise but there is also...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323091

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Funding weapons together (or not) : how to pay for European defence

2025

Book / Working Paper

The 8 percent approach : a big bang in resources and capacity for Europe’s economy and defence

Abdi, Ismail; Dugo, Andrea; Erixon, Fredrik; Tähtinen, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323645

Verteidigungsetat : neue Weltbank für Verteidigung

Werner, Said D. - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371132

Infrastruktur, Rüstung und die Schuldengrenze : die rechtliche Sicht

Weck, Thomas - 2025

Die Koalitionssondierungen haben zu einer Einigung bei der Finanzierung von Infrastruktur und Rüstung geführt. Diese sieht vor, die Schuldengrenze im Grundgesetz bestehen zu lassen und sie zugleich mithilfe von kreditfinanzierten Sondervermögen bzw. Ausnahmeklauseln zu umgehen. Das wirft die...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015371336

The security dividend of climate policy

Beaufils, Timothé; Jakob, Michael; Kalkuhl, Matthias; … - 2025

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373780

Digital technologies : civilian vs. military trajectories

Guarascio, Dario; Pianta, Mario - 2025

The article examines the evolution of the current technological paradigm, based on digital technologies, considering the interaction between civilian and military trajectories, with a focus on the US case. Building on an original political economy framework, the activities of corporations and...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015337579

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Digital technologies : civilian vs military trajectories

Guarascio, Dario; Pianta, Mario - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Who wins wars?

Federle, Jonathan-Julian; Rohner, Dominic; Schularick, … - 2025

Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015193812

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Who wins wars?

Federle, Jonathan-Julian; Rohner, Dominic; Schularick, … - 2025

Book / Working Paper

The Impact of military expenditures on economic growth : a new instrumental variables approach

Saeed, Luqman - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015182073

Guns and growth : the economic consequences of defense buildups

Ilzetzki, Ethan - 2025

This paper investigates how an increase in military expenditures affects an economy. It is written in the context of rising geopolitical tensions that have spurred increased military spending in the United States, Europe, and other economic areas. It draws on a large literature in...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015198442

The effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Wagner Group coup on defense stocks in Europe : an event study analysis

Covachev, Svetoslav; Fazakas, Gergely - 2025

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015199633

How to finance Europe's military buildup? : lessons from history

Marzian, Johannes; Trebesch, Christoph - 2025

Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that...

Persistent link: https://ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015327817