We study the social and distributional implications of the euro area (EA) sovereign debt crisis in countries that received external financial assistance for macroeconomic adjustments. Combining granular data from about one million survey interviews with households across euro area states carried...

This study aims to analyze the long-run effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), a grouping of six countries (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, the Central African Republic, and Chad) forming a monetary union....

Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success....

Widening income disparities, higher corruption and larger informality in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDE) including Latin America, all with pressing and mounting fiscal problems, have rekindled interest in the empirical analysis of the key factors determining the occurrence...

This research employs a quadratic exponential model to examine the dynamics of fiscal adjustments in the context of oil shocks. The findings suggest significant state dependence, with past fiscal adjustments increasing the likelihood of future adjustments and an asymmetry in oil shock effects....

The European Union has reformed its fiscal rules in late 2024, making debt sustainability analysis (DSAs) the central steering tool for European fiscal policy. DSAs will be used to project debt-to-GDP ratios and derive fiscal policy requirements. In this paper, we show that DSAs currently...

In this paper, we analyse the effects on the economies of the European Union and the rest of the world, of several austerity policies implemented by the Southern European countries, i.e., Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. In particular, we simulate the reduction in one point in the government...

This paper provides a novel way for instructors to teach about the perils of a large National Debt, which is currently $36 trillion. We provide a detailed lesson plan that utilizes balloons to illustrate the possible paths a society can take to address this issue. The lesson plan consists of an...

A fiscal rule is economically sensible if it ensures sustainable public finances. The German debt brake does no such thing because it is blind to the two key determinants of fiscal sustainability - interest rates and growth. We therefore propose modelling a reformed German fiscal rule on the...

This paper provides a critical assessment of the new EU fiscal framework, with a focus on its implications for public expenditure on the twin green and digital transition. According to the reformed rules, member states may commit to a package of investment and reform to extend the fiscal...

This paper investigates the implications of the European Union's revised fiscal governance framework for Italy, a country facing the dual challenge of high public debt and persistent economic stagnation. Using a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) macroeconometric model of the Italian economy (MITA), we...

Through fiscal reaction functions, we investigate fiscal sustainability for five European country-group panels and check for a change in fiscal behaviour after countries adopted the euro as their currency. Using annual data for the period between 1990 and 2021, we identify evidence of average...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

The European Union is grappling with the challenge of increasing defence expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The European Commission has proposed activating the national escape clause available under the SGP to accommodate defence spending...

We examine the 2025 U.S. debt limit episode through the lens of financial markets. First, we document an increase in trading activity in the U.S. sovereign CDS market, and we infer a probability of default from CDS premiums. We find that default risk reached 1% by the November 6 Presidential...

This paper assesses the effectiveness and public finance implications of the German debt brake, a constitutional balanced budget rule introduced in 2009 that aims to ensure a sustainable path of public indebtedness. In order to estimate its causal effects, our paper employs a synthetic control...

European countries face high, rising, and long-lasting spending pressures, calling for a renewed focus on fiscal policy and comprehensive structural reforms to prepare their economies for the future. On top of existing fiscal consolidation needs, spending pressures in five key areas are imminent...

We develop a simple two-period principal-agent model in which a present-biased government, the agent, chooses public investment levels given a deficit rule imposed by the principal. The principal sets a deficit cap to curb current debt-financed consumption. In doing so, it also reduces long-term...

This study estimates the impact of public debt on public investment in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies. We implement Cross-sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model, which effectively handles cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, while...

Political crises often coincide with fiscal crises, with complex causal dynamics at play. We examine the interaction between tax revolts and sovereign risk using a quantitative structural model calibrated to Argentina. In the model, the government can be controlled by political parties with...

This paper studies the impact of austerity measures implemented by the UK government after 2010 on life expectancy and mortality. We combine administrative data sources to create a panel dataset spanning from 2002 to 2019. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we estimate the effect of...

Germany is undergoing a major shift in fiscal policy. In response to recent crises and long-term structural challenges, the federal government has introduced a debt-financed spending package that marks a significant departure from past fiscal orthodoxy. This paper investigates the macroeconomic...

Die im Grundgesetz verankerte Schuldenbremse gilt unmittelbar auch für die Bundesländer. Daher ist es im Grundsatz naheliegend, die Regelungen in die Landesverfassung des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen zu übernehmen, wie es ein Antrag der FDP-Fraktion vorsieht. Der Gesetzentwurf der FDP-Fraktion...