We study the sustainability of pension systems using a life-cycle model with distortionary taxation that sets an upper limit to the real value of tax revenues. This limit implies an endogenous threshold dependency ratio, i.e. a point in the cross-section distribution of the population beyond...

Wirkt sich der demographische Wandel auf die internationalen Kapitalbewegungen aus? Für die Analyse dieser Frage wird zunächst untersucht, welchen Einfluss die Verschiebung der Bevölkerungsaltersstruktur auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Ersparnis und Investition hat. Anhand eines Modells der...

Die langfristige Finanzierung des gesetzlichen Gesundheitssystems ist aufgrund des bevorstehenden doppelten Alterungsprozesses und des medizinisch-technischen Fortschritts massiv gefährdet. Der Autor quantifiziert unter Anwendung der Methode der Generationenbilanzierung die langfristige...

Der demografische Wandel stellt eine massive Herausforderung für die Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung dar. Die Politik hat daher eine Neuordnung innerhalb des Drei-Säulen-Systems der Alterssicherung angestoßen. Künftige Alterseinkommen werden zu einem deutlich geringeren Teil...

In der wissenschaftlichen Literatur standen bis dato die Implikationen des demografischen Wandels für die Sozialversicherungen im Fokus. Die Arbeitsmarkteffekte sind bisher nur höchst unzureichend analysiert worden. Die Arbeit stößt in diese Lücke und liefert wichtige und neue Einsichten in...

Der demografische Wandel diente in der ersten Dekade des 21. Jahrhunderts als Hauptgrund für die in Deutschland erfolgten Reformen im Bereich der Sozialversicherung, besonders der Alterssicherung. Die damit verbundenen institutionellen Veränderungen werden in einem Überblick über die Genese...

As the third largest economy in the world and a precursor of global trends in population aging, Japan’s recent experiences provide important lessons regarding how demographic shifts affect the labor market and individuals’ economic well-being. On the whole, the labor market has shown a...

Pension economics has traditionally guided pension policy with the help of formal models based on individuals who think in a life cycle context with perfect foresight, full information, and in a time-consistent manner. This paper sheds light on selected aspects of pension economics when these...

Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a falling trend in the euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy...

As is the case in most developed countries, the population of New Zealand is ageing numerically and structurally. Population ageing can have important effects on the distribution of personal income within and between urban areas. The age structure of the population may affect the distribution of...

One consequence of demographic change is substantial shifts in the age distribution of the working-age population. As the baby boom generation ages, the usual historical pattern of a high ratio of younger workers relative to older workers has been replaced by a pattern of roughly equal...

Die vorliegende Studie basiert auf einem Gutachten, das zusammen mit dem Leibniz-Institut für ökologische Raumentwicklung (IÖR) und Prof. Gesine Marquardt, Inhaberin des Lehrstuhls für Sozial- und Gesundheitsbauten der Technischen Universität (TU) Dresden, für das Bundesministerium für...

We propose a novel framework to analyse the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases. We incorporate measures of disease prevalence into a human capital augmented production function, which enables us to determine the economic costs of chronic health conditions in terms of foregone...

Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We...

The paper investigates the impacts of demographic change on the financial sustainability of a pay-as-you-go social security system in an economy with unemployment caused by trade unions. Using a simple two-period overlapping generations approach, it can be shown that the trade union behavior...

This paper integrates into public economics a biologically founded, stochastic process of individual ageing. The novel approach enables us to quantitatively characterize the optimal joint design of health and retirement policy behind the veil of ignorance for today and in response to future...

We propose a novel framework to analyse the macroeconomic impact of noncommunicable diseases. We incorporate measures of disease prevalence into a human capital augmented production function, which enables us to determine the economic costs of chronic health conditions in terms of foregone gross...

Governments are increasingly recognizing that population ageing is already a challenge to achieving the United Nations 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development due to the profound impacts this demographic phenomenon has on the well-being of all generations. This publication argues that with...

This paper aims to provide a counterweight to the omnipresent gloomy analyses of demographic change in Western societies. The central argument is that the strains and challenges which demographic change poses for different sub-orders of society can lead to a higher appreciation of the individual...

Bis zum Jahr 2050 wird sich der Anteil der Bevölkerung in der Altersgruppe 80+ verdoppeln. Gleichzeitig steigt die Nachfrage nach Langzeitpflege stark an. Pflege durch Familienangehörige spielt in Deutschland eine große Rolle. Für die Soziale Pflegeversicherung ist sie deutlich günstiger...

The share of the population aged 80 and older will double by 2050. This development spurs a considerable increase in the demand for long-term care. Supporting informal care provision by family members is the most common policy choice in European countries. This form of care is regarded to be...