Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is proposing very restrictive migration policies. This paper argues that, given Japan's past migration strategy, large-scale immigration will become unavoidable. By contrast, other countries facing similar structural labour shortages will be able to respond not only...

Demographic ageing, a topic that is intensively addressed in the scientific literature, significantly influences the functioning of economic systems. Demographic ageing directly impacts the labour supply, productivity, savings, investments and the sustainability of public finances through...

Decline in the school-age population due to demographic changes presents an opportunity to redirect resources within the education sector to improve access and quality. However, the experiences of countries that have gone through similar demographic transitions show that a shrinking student...

I examine whether trade can improve the impact of population growth on natural resources (NR) and welfare over time. Under autarky, population growth results in NR and welfare collapse over time, irrespective of the value of the returns to scale in the manufacturing sector, ϕ. Under trade, NR...

I examine whether trade can improve the impact of population growth on natural resources (NR) and welfare over time. Under autarky, population growth results in NR and welfare collapse over time, irrespective of the value of the returns to scale in the manufacturing sector, ϕ. Under trade, NR...

What ignited humanity's momentous ascent from millennia of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth? And what are the roots of the vast disparities in the wealth of nations? These enduring mysteries, which have preoccupied scholars across generations, lie at the core of Unified Growth...

This report examines how migration will shape the region’s demographic and socio-economic future by 2035 under two trajectories: EU Integration, marked by institutional strengthening and circular mobility, and Strategic Isolation, characterised by governance stagnation and one-way outflows....

Using the National Survey of Family Growth, this paper explores reasons behind the falling birth rate in the United States. The analysis confirms that newer generations of women are less likely to have any children than generations that came before. Comparing outcomes among women at the same...

More than 15 years have passed since population in Japan began to decline. This paper addresses two questions concerning population decline in cities across the country. First, has the population decline occurred homogeneously or heterogeneously across cities? Second, if the decline has occurred...

Demographic change has profoundly influenced economic and societal developments in industrialised nations, driven by declining fertility, rising life expectancy, and migration dynamics. While national trends are well-documented, regional demographic variations remain underexplored, particularly...

Demographic change is one of Germany's most pressing social and economic challenges. Using data from a representative telephone survey, we analyze how well informed respondents are about the magnitude of demographic change and what factors influence the accuracy of their beliefs. We find that...

In this paper, we use an overlapping-generations standard-incomplete markets model to quantitatively investigate the long-run implications of Korea's demographic changes and policy reforms. Importantly, our quantitative model endogenizes the retirement decision and matches the elasticity of...

This paper examines the role of "healthy aging" in boosting labor supply in Korea. First, we use microdata from surveys to assess whether there is evidence that the physical abilities of individuals aged 50 years and above have been improving over successive cohorts. Second, we investigate...

The recent drastic decline of fertility has further worsened the negative intrinsic growth of Finland. The country appears to be on a path towards decline. Net migration has kept the actual growth positive, especially because the migrants are younger than the receiving population. Their...

Grandparents are an integral part of family support systems, serving as both providers and consumers of instrumental, financial, and emotional care. They also play a central role in transmitting cultural and financial capital to their grandchildren. Grandparenting, which refers to the care,...

We investigate the relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing process. Anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the skill level of immigrants. This in turn fuels populist support. Historical and...

Long-term projections are the bedrock of any analysis looking at the sustainability of public finances. This paper computes the changes in economic growth in individual European Union (EU) countries needed for government debt-to-GDP ratios to stay on their baseline trajectories (taken from the...

This paper presents the first comprehensive quantitative account of epidemic cholera in 19th-century Germany. Using a new dataset based on archival sources, it documents nearly half a million cholera deaths, along with outbreak timing and population at risk, across 2,685 cities and 852 rural...

This paper evaluates the impacts of trade liberalization on the marital and fertility choices of women in Vietnam. Applying a regional exposure approach, we leverage the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) as an exogenous and positive shock to the nation’s export growth. Our results...

In neuen Kooperationen von Kommunen mit Wissenschaft, zivilgesellschaftlichen Organisationen und Bürger*innen erforschten und erprobten in den beiden BMBF-Fördermaßnahmen "Kommunen innovativ" und "REGION.innovativ - Kreislaufwirtschaft" bundesweit 47 Verbundvorhaben innovative Lösungen, mit...

This study investigates the formation of European identity across European regions between 2019 and 2024. Drawing on Self-Categorization and Social Identity Theory, European identity (EI) is conceptualized as a collective identity rooted in shared democratic values, human rights, and the rule of...