This paper investigates why U.S. inflation during 2021–2022 subsided without the expected rise in unemployment implied by the Phillips curve, advancing the question of whether supply-side factors and anchored expectations reshaped the inflation–employment relationship. Drawing on...

Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated...

Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to peak in mid-2022 and then decline, but to remain elevated...

The recently observed disconnect between inflation and economic activity can be explained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance out; factor costs dominate firms' marginal...

It is widely believed that inflation inertia varies with the policy pursued. In a novel experiment, price setters determine inflation rates and react to a central bank's indicator, which is implemented exogenously either as cold turkey or gradual disinflation. In a third treatment, subjects in...

We use a standard new Keynesian model to evaluate the cost of disinflation - measured by the sacrifice ratio, the central bank's loss function, and the welfare cost - in a small open economy vis-à-vis a closed economy. Disinflation is either more costly or less beneficial in the small open...

We show that if business cycles are driven by financial shocks, the interplay between the effective lower bound (ELB) and the costs of external financing can generate an additional supply-side channel, which causes a disconnect between inflation and output. In normal times, factor costs dominate...

The recently observed disconnect between inflation and economic activity can be explained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance out; factor costs dominate firms' marginal...

We show that if business cycles are driven by financial shocks, the interplay between the effective lower bound (ELB) and the costs of external financing can generate an additional supply-side channel, which causes a disconnect between inflation and output. In normal times, factor costs dominate...

We use a standard new Keynesian model to evaluate the cost of disinflation - measured by the sacrifice ratio, the central bank's loss function, and the welfare cost - in a small open economy vis-à-vis a closed economy. Disinflation is either more costly or less beneficial in the small open...

We show that "zombie credit" - cheap credit to impaired firms - has a disinflationary effect. By helping distressed firms to stay afloat, such credit creates excess production capacity, thereby putting downward pressure on product prices. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks...

We show that "zombie credit" - cheap credit to impaired firms - has a disinflationary effect. By helping distressed firms to stay afloat, such credit creates excess production capacity, thereby putting downward pressure on product prices. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks...

Even when the policy rate is currently not constrained by its effective lower bound (ELB), the possibility that the policy rate will become constrained in the future lowers today's inflation by creating tail risk in future inflation and thus reducing expected inflation. In an empirically rich...

This paper highlights relative price adjustments taking place in the global economy as important sources of the lower levels of inflation rates observed in the recent decades. Using a markup model, it shows substantial effects from declines in wage costs and import prices relative to consumer...

Disinflation can be implemented gradually or via Cold Turkey - an immediate change of policy - with the latter being mainly recommended by theory and empirical literature. But Cold Turkey may only be superior because it is endogenously selected for favorable environments. To eliminate this...

One of the main implications of the basic target zone model developed by Krugman (1991) is that there is a trade-off between exchange rate volatility and interest rate differential volatility. Using an M-GARCH model we find evidence that such a trade-off existed, prior to the introduction of the...

Disinflation can be implemented gradually or via Cold Turkey - an immediate change of policy - with the latter being mainly recommended by theory and empirical literature. But Cold Turkey may only be superior because it is endogenously selected for favorable environments. To eliminate this...

This paper analyzes the cost of disinflations under real wage rigidities in a micro-foundedNew Keynesian model. The consensus is that real wage rigidities can be a useful mechanismto induce the inflation persistence that is absent in the standard Calvo model...

The paper studies the effects of credible disinflation in the presence of real wage rigidity, comparing the Calvo and Rotemberg price setting mechanisms (the two popular variants of the New-Keynesian model). In both types of models, a credible, gradual disinflation is shown to lead to a delayed...

The synchronized disinflation across Europe since end-2011 raises the question of whether non-euro area EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the euro area inflation target. To shed light on this issue, we estimate an open-economy, New Keynsian Phillips curve, in which we control for...

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of a protracted period of low and falling inflation rates when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates and the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt-deflation channel). In this scenario, even...

This staff report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation on the Islamic Republic of Iran focuses on economic developments and policies. The IMF report had achieved considerable progress in raising per capita income and living standards. Large shocks and weak macroeconomic management have had a...

The paper studies the effects of credible disinflation in the presence of real wage rigidity, comparing the Calvo and Rotemberg price setting mechanisms (the two popular variants of the New-Keynesian model). In both types of models, a credible, gradual disinflation is shown to lead to a delayed...