The paper finds that the post-pandemic inflation surge and subsequent decline from 2021 to 2024 had no significant impact on public support for the Euro for the EA-19 and for most individual member states of the EA-19. From 2021 to 2024, net public support for the euro remained remarkably stable...

We examine the changing attention that ECB Governing Council members pay to different policy objectives by analysing more than 4,600 speeches given between the establishment of the ECB and the summer of 2024. Alongside the primary objective of price stability, we consider the following potential...

Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank's direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single...

We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together...

We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010-2019, roughly a...

This paper applies the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess downside risks to euro area GDP growth, and it examines its usefulness for stress testing. Supervisory stress-test scenarios are often criticized for being either too mild or implausibly severe, raising questions about calibration....

This paper examines how fiscal policy in the euro area reacts to monetary policy, by estimating fiscal policy reaction functions for the period 1999-2019. Inclusion of the monetary policy stance in the fiscal reaction function, approximated by a shadow interest rate, is a relatively novel aspect...

Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970-2025) with a structural VAR analysis...

We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12%, compared with an average of 8% over 2010-2019, roughly a...

We investigate the impact of structural shocks on the joint distribution of future real GDP growth and inflation in the euro area. We model the conditional mean of these variables, along with selected financial indicators, using a VAR and perform quantile regressions on the VAR residuals to...

This paper develops a novel empirical framework to analyse the drivers of business expectations in the euro area. Using harmonised data from the European Commission's business surveys for manufacturing, services, and construction, we build composite business expectations indices (BEI) for...

The Council of the European Union decided on July 8, 2025 that Bulgaria had fulfilled the necessary conditions for adoption of the euro with effect from January 1,2026,1 and that the conversion rate should be set at 1.95583 Bulgarian lev per one euro.2 The Bulgarian authorities notified the Fund...

The following study analyzes the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending in the euro area. It focuses particularly on the heterogeneity in the speed and strength of propagation of monetary policy shocks across euro area countries. We employ instrumental variables, based on common euro...

The ECB anticipates stable growth and inflation, while Europe is faced with geopolitical threats, lack of competitiveness and fiscal challenges. At such a time, central bankers need to consider the dynamics of risk scenarios that arise from potentially mis-aligned or mis-perceived trends and...

We assess asymmetries, nonlinearities and state dependencies in dynamic responses of the euro area to monetary policy shocks. The dataset includes macroeconomic, financial, and survey-based variables measuring credit conditions and bank lending transmission channels. These data are observed at...

In this note, we provide a brief first quantitative assessment of possible consequences of the energy price shock for euro area inflation. We consider different scenarios of more or less persistent increases of gasoline, diesel, natural gas, kerosine price increases on headline and core HICP...

We examine the changing attention that ECB Governing Council members pay to different policy objectives by analysing more than 4,600 speeches given between the establishment of the ECB and the summer of 2024. Alongside the primary objective of price stability, we consider the following potential...

This paper examines the persistent upward bias in euro area households' inflation perceptions and expectations, even when realized inflation is near the ECB's target. It discusses behavioural and informational drivers of this bias, its implications for consumption, wage setting, and monetary...

We study the distributional consequences of the recent inflationary surge and the subsequent monetary policy response in the euro area. Using an estimated two-asset Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model with an overlapping generations structure, we analyze the macroeconomic shocks driving...

This paper investigates how monetary and ESG-related risks-especially those stemming from asymmetric policy transmission across Eurozone economies-have evolved over time, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 era. Using a mixed-method bibliometric analysis of 216 peer-reviewed articles (1996-2025),...

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We...

Compared with the relatively straightforward definition of a default event, assessing sovereign debt sustainability remains a grey area. The interaction between fiscal choices, lenders' expectations and economic uncertainty creates a setting in which-particularly when a default...

The Euro Area experienced historically high inflation in 2022, with energy prices playing a central role. This paper examines the joint impact of various energy price shocks on inflation in the Euro Area, with a focus on the period encompassing the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war....

We analyze the sources of the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. By applying narrative, sign, zero, and inequality restrictions, this study is the first that jointly analyzes the inflationary effects of energy and non-energy supply...

The article reviews the latest version of the proposal for a new Stability and Growth Pact of the European Union, as accepted by the European Parliament in April 2024. After summarising the main changes, the macroeconomic evaluation attempts to gauge whether the main goal of the Pact –...

The reform of the European fiscal rules came into force on 30 April 2024. The new rules, like the former ones, impose a depressive bias on domestic fiscal policies, leaving Member States' no fiscal room for manoeuvre. At the same time, the European Pillar of Social Rights sets ambitious targets...

What has led to the growing disillusionment with the European project? What have we learned from the process of Europeanisation, and can these lessons guide us in the present? To answer these questions, the article offers a long-term view of the diverging trajectories of Central and Peripheral...

This paper examines the rise of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and its implications for financial stability and monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area and the United States. While the U.S. financial system has long been market-based, the Euro Area has experienced a striking...