Global trade flows and supply chains adjust gradually. Empirical estimates of the trade elasticity for the short run are a fraction of those for the long run and suggest that trade is subject to substantive dynamic frictions. We develop a tractable framework that provides microfoundations for...

Since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has pursued its enlargement policy as part of a geopolitical approach. According to the European Commission and candidate states, the EU could admit new members from 2028 onwards, while...

This paper examines economic and institutional convergence between EU Core, EU New, and Western Balkan countries over the period 2004-2023 using a comprehensive panel dataset and multiple convergence frameworks. Evidence of absolute β-convergence is found, although at a slow pace, while...

A credible EU enlargement policy remains necessary from a geopolitical perspective, but can only succeed through a more pragmatic and gradual integration approach. New members amplify the existing challenges to EU decision making, rule-of-law conditionality and political cohesion, particularly...

This report examines how migration will shape the region’s demographic and socio-economic future by 2035 under two trajectories: EU Integration, marked by institutional strengthening and circular mobility, and Strategic Isolation, characterised by governance stagnation and one-way outflows....

NATO enlargement and Russian annexation of Crimea marked crucial turning points. According to one narrative, the Russian occupation was part of a plan to re-establish dominion over Eastern Europe. According to a rival view, it was an attempt to counter a U.S. plan to subjugate Russia. I...

The Council of the European Union decided on July 8, 2025 that Bulgaria had fulfilled the necessary conditions for adoption of the euro with effect from January 1,2026,1 and that the conversion rate should be set at 1.95583 Bulgarian lev per one euro.2 The Bulgarian authorities notified the Fund...

This year, the Subnational B-READY series covers 66 cities across six EU Member States (Czechia, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Poland, and Spain), spanning 64 NUTS2 regions. The primary objective of the Subnational B-READY studies is to identify and address regional disparities in regulatory...

Twenty years have passed since the first eastern enlargements of the European Union (EU). This paper assesses the impacts of EU accession on agriculture and rural regions of Central and Eastern European countries and identifies the reasons behind differences in country performance. Results...

EU enlargement rounds have always been driven by political will of the parties concerned and administered through a comprehensive legal-bureaucratic procedure. There is strong political determination to carry on the accession process involving Western Balkan countries as well as Ukraine, Georgia...

Understanding the structural change in catching-up regions and the spatial distribution of economic sectors is essential for designing comprehensive policy strategies to promote balanced economic development. This study examines the economic restructuring of the 11 central and eastern European...

The changing geopolitical situation in the European region has actualized the issues of further EU enlargement. As a result, the relevance of studying many aspects of the functioning economic systems of candidate countries has increased. In this context, the purpose of this article is to...

The enlargement of the European Union towards the Western Balkans is experiencing unprecedented dynamism, supported by the launch of a tailored Euro 6 billion growth plan. This renewed momentum offers an important opportunity for the Western Balkans to accelerate economic convergence with the...

This study examines the implications of future enlargements for the next MFF. It reviews adjustments made to the EU budget during past enlargements and estimates the budgetary costs of the accession of all current candidate and potential candidate countries (excluding Türkiye) under three...

This study explores the role and enhancement of parliamentary capacities in the European Union (EU) enlargement process, focusing on the EU's evolving accession methodology and its emphasis on the 'fundamentals' approach. It examines the European Commission's criteria for 'functioning democratic...

This study examines the implications of future enlargements for the next MFF. It reviews adjustments made to the EU budget during past enlargements and estimates the budgetary costs of the accession of all current candidate and potential candidate countries (excluding Türkiye) under three...

EU enlargement has stalled since the last member joined over ten years ago, marking the longest period without expansion since 1973. This elapsed time contrasts with the potential income gains membership promises. Drawing on the biggest EU enlargement in 2004 and employing a synthetic...

This paper examines the state of innovation in Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern EU countries. Despite increased innovation capacity, the region faces significant challenges threatening its growth and competitiveness, including severe skills shortages, uneven productivity, and barriers to...

How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK’s exit from the EU’s single market and customs union in January 2021 led to an...

This FIW policy brief explores the negative effects of EU digital regulations on Western Balkan countries. It assesses how these countries have adapted to existing global data regulation models and explores potential avenues for boosting trade through the EU granting data adequacy status, aiming...

We use heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences (DiD) methods to evaluate the impact of membership in the European Union (EU) Single Market on international trade. On the policy front, we provide evidence that: (i) On average, the EU has been very effective in promoting trade among its...

This paper analyzes the economic growth trajectories of post-communist countries that emerged following the collapse of the USSR. I treat the Soviet Union's sudden dissolution as a natural experiment that triggered rapid institutional changes, providing a unique opportunity to iso- late...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the start of a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe - one that is fundamentally reshaping the parameters of European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his stated intent to quickly end the war in Ukraine and put...

For decades Hungary, like the other post-socialist Central-Eastern European countries, followed a general policy of establishing and strengthening the institutions of democracy and a market economy. While Hungary initially benefited from the EU's convergence mechanisms, including access to the...

On 4 July 2024, colleagues from the Legal Services of the European Commission, the Council of the European Union, the European Parliament, the EFTA Surveillance Authority, the Single Resolution Board and the Court of Justice of the European Union gathered together for the seminar entitled '20...

Annual economic growth accelerated slightly in the Western Balkans in the second quarter of 2025. The region's real GDP growth picked-up to 2.6% y-o-y in Q2-2025 from 2.3% in the previous quarter as all economies except Albania recorded higher rates of output growth. Kosovo registered the...

On 4 July 2024, colleagues from the Legal Services of the European Commission, the Council of the European Union, the European Parliament, the EFTA Surveillance Authority, the Single Resolution Board and the Court of Justice of the European Union gathered together for the seminar entitled '20...

This report describes the bioeconomy policy developments in Albania, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo*, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Türkiye and Ukraine, associated to the Horizon Europe Framework Programme. The work extends the geographic coverage of the...

Cedefop's work on qualifications frameworks dates back to 2003. The Centre has contributed to the conceptual development of the European Qualifications Framework (EQF) and has supported its further implementation, working alongside with the of national authorities and stakeholders to introduce...

This Special Eurobarometer 564 report is a comprehensive study commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood (DG ENEST) and conducted between February and March 2025. This report delves into various aspects of EU enlargement, providing...

Local and regional authorities are increasingly recognised as crucial actors in the enlargement process, and the European Green Deal recognises their vital contribution to achieving the EU's climate objectives. The Green Deal policy areas have become central elements of the accession process,...

This Special Eurobarometer 564 report is a comprehensive study commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood (DG ENEST) and conducted between February and March 2025. This report delves into various aspects of EU enlargement, providing...