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Subject
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Economic forecast 10,037 Wirtschaftsprognose 10,031 Prognoseverfahren 3,657 Forecasting model 3,652 Macroeconomic performance 1,407 Wirtschaftslage 1,407 Wirtschaftswachstum 1,289 Economic growth 1,271 Frühindikator 1,107 Leading indicator 1,107 Theorie 1,086 Theory 1,085 Prognose 922 USA 860 United States 843 Welt 838 World 835 Forecast 772 Wirtschaftspolitik 681 Economic policy 638 Zeitreihenanalyse 616 Time series analysis 615 EU countries 612 EU-Staaten 612 Konjunktur 548 Business cycle 540 National income 520 Nationaleinkommen 520 Deutschland 476 Germany 472 Russland 432 Russia 430 Economic indicator 424 Wirtschaftsindikator 424 Estimation 398 Schätzung 398 Macroeconometrics 381 Makroökonometrie 381 Geldpolitik 372 Monetary policy 371
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Online availability
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Free 2,950 Undetermined 1,137
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 5,782 Article 3,915 Journal 363
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 3,429 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 3,429 Graue Literatur 2,965 Non-commercial literature 2,965 Arbeitspapier 1,541 Working Paper 1,541 Aufsatz im Buch 478 Book section 478 Collection of articles of several authors 429 Sammelwerk 429 Amtsdruckschrift 374 Government document 374 Konferenzschrift 217 Conference proceedings 165 Statistik 141 Aufsatzsammlung 102 Statistics 101 No longer published / No longer aquired 85 Hochschulschrift 67 Country report 55 Länderbericht 55 Advisory report 50 Gutachten 50 Thesis 47 Mehrbändiges Werk 45 Multi-volume publication 45 Bibliografie enthalten 35 Bibliography included 35 Collection of articles written by one author 33 Sammlung 33 Amtliche Publikation 27 Systematic review 25 Übersichtsarbeit 25 Bibliografie 21 Conference paper 21 Konferenzbeitrag 21 Lehrbuch 17 Textbook 16 Handbook 14 Handbuch 14
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Language
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English 7,826 German 689 Russian 404 French 358 Spanish 122 Polish 121 Italian 94 Czech 84 Slovak 82 Hungarian 46 Croatian 42 Dutch 36 Swedish 29 Portuguese 25 Undetermined 24 Norwegian 21 Romanian 18 Bulgarian 16 Danish 16 Ukrainian 13 Slovenian 11 Finnish 9 Arabic 7 Serbian 6 Lithuanian 5 Afrikaans 4 Macedonian 3 Valencian 2 Kazakh 2 Modern Greek (1453-) 1 Estonian 1 Indonesian 1 Japanese 1 Korean 1 Malay (macrolanguage) 1 Albanian 1
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Author
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Clements, Michael P. 68 Marcellino, Massimiliano 53 Timmermann, Allan 50 Rossi, Barbara 42 Hendry, David F. 40 Michelsen, Claus 39 Schorfheide, Frank 38 Giannone, Domenico 35 Kooths, Stefan 35 Clark, Todd E. 33 Sekhposyan, Tatevik 32 Lahiri, Kajal 31 Hohlfeld, Peter 30 Tober, Silke 30 Wolfers, Justin 30 Kapetanios, George 29 Stekler, Herman O. 29 Rietzler, Katja 28 Welfe, Władysław 28 Franses, Philip Hans 27 Jannsen, Nils 26 Diebold, Francis X. 25 Fritsche, Ulrich 25 Pesaran, M. Hashem 25 Publishers, Wiley-Blackwell 25 Engerer, Hella 24 Holtemöller, Oliver 24 Lehmann, Robert 24 McCracken, Michael W. 24 Baldi, Guido 23 Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens 23 D'Agostino, Antonello 23 Junker, Simon 23 Theobald, Thomas 23 Zezza, Gennaro 23 Groll, Dominik 22 Herzog-Stein, Alexander 22 Stephan, Sabine 22 Wohlrabe, Klaus 22 Gorodnichenko, Yuriy 21
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Institution
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OECD 157 National Bureau of Economic Research 82 World Bank 64 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen 30 World Bank Group 27 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche 21 Internationaler Währungsfonds 19 Weltbank 19 Jerome Levy Economics Institute 16 Weltbankgruppe 16 Niederlande / Centraal Planbureau 15 Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 14 Institute of Policy Studies <Singapur> 13 USA / Congress / Joint Economic Committee 11 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 11 GKI Gazdaságkutató Rt. <Budapest> 10 Economist Intelligence Unit <London> 9 Institut für Höhere Studien 9 Konjunkturinstitutet <Stockholm> 9 Nihon Keizai Kenkyū Sentā <Tokio> 9 Nihon-Sōgō-Kenkyūsho <Tokio> / Keizai-Gakubu 9 Prognos AG 9 Republička Zajednica za Znanstveni Rad SR Hrvatske 9 Republički Zavod za Društveno Planiranje SR Hrvatske <Zagreb> 9 Stellenbosch University / Bureau for Economic Research 9 Belarus / Ministerstvo Ėkonomiki 8 Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys 8 Institut Narodnochozjajstvennogo Prognozirovanija <Moskau> 8 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies 8 International Monetary Fund 8 USA / Congress / Budget Office 8 USA / Congress / House of Representatives / Committee on the Budget 8 Credit Suisse 7 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 7 Frankreich / Commissariat Général du Plan 7 Institut Mirovoj Ėkonomiki i Meždunarodnych Otnošenij 7 Naučno-Issledovatelʹ'kij Ėkonomičeskij Institut <Minsk> 7 Zakład Teorii Prognoz <Krakau> 7 Belgien / Bureau du Plan 6 Business Times (Firm : Singapore) 6
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Published in...
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International journal of forecasting 268 OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections 115 NBER working paper series 80 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 75 Journal of forecasting 75 Studies on Russian economic development : the official journal of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences 74 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 73 NBER Working Paper 63 World Bank E-Library Archive 54 Economic modelling 51 Economic Updates and Modeling 46 European economic forecast 44 Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 44 Working paper series / European Central Bank 44 European economy 43 Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 43 Global economics paper 40 EIU special report 38 Regional Economic Outlook 38 ECB Working Paper 37 Economics letters 36 IMF working papers 35 Journal of applied econometrics 35 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 35 DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a policy bulletin from the German Institute for Economic Research 34 Ekonomický časopis : časopis pre ekonomickú teóriu, hospodársku politiku, spoločensko-ekonomické prognózovanie 34 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 34 Report / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 33 CESifo working papers 32 Working paper 31 National Institute economic review 30 Applied economics 28 Applied economics letters 27 EIU economic prospects series 27 Finance and economics discussion series 26 Ėkonomist : ežemesjačnyj naučno-praktičeskij žurnal 26 Discussion papers / CEPR 25 Journal of macroeconomics 25 World economic and financial surveys 25 Problems of economic transition 24
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 10,037 RePEc 18 EconStor 4 ArchiDok 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 10,060
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Overshadowed by war and sanctions : economic analysis and outlook for Central, East and Southeast Europe : forecast report
Astrov, Vasily; Grieveson, Richard; Jovanović, Branimir; … - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche - 2022
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Bracing for the winter : economic analysis and outlook for Central, East and Southeast Europe : wiiw forecast report autumn 2022
Jovanović, Branimir; Bykova, Alexandra; Grieveson, Richard - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche - 2022
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Darkest before the dawn? : economic analysis and outlook for Central, East and Southeast Europe : forecast report
Grieveson, Richard; Pindyuk, Olga; Astrov, Vasily; … - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche - 2021
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A SMARTer way to forecast
Bowe, Frida; Loneland, Atle; Paulsen, Kenneth Sæterhagen; … - 2023
In this paper we describe the newly developed System for Model Analysis in Real Time (SMART) used for forecasting and model analysis in Norges Bank. While the long-term goal is to include all empirical models used in forecasting in Norges Bank, the emphasis in this paper will be on the empirical...
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Macroeconomic Forecast and Investment Decisions for China in 2023
Lyu, Wenbo; Su, Chang - 2023
Starting with the year of 2020 pandemic, the world has entered a testing period for the economy (Nicola et al., 2020). It has been three years since the Covid-19 began, and the misalignment of the timing of the pandemic and its spread (Kuckertz et al., 2020), combined with the misalignment of...
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Institutional Quality and Official Forecast Performance in EU Member States
Cronin, David; McInerney, Niall - 2023
Medium-term budgetary frameworks are institutional arrangements at national level intended to improve official forecasts in EU member states. The influence of those frameworks on official forecasts of output growth and the budget balance ratio in 24 EU member states over the years 2008 to 2019...
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Reform and Opening-Up Can Make China's Economy Grow by An Average of 5.5% Over the Next 15 Years -Inscription and Simulation of Mathematical Logic Based on the Endogenous of Instit...
Zhou, Tianyong - 2023
The mainstream analytical methods of modern economics, such as the Solow model, impose a limitation on the historical interpretation of sources and the future projection of economic growth potential in a transitional country like China, as the model assumes scenarios that are inconsistent with...
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The Impact of COVID-19 on Japan’s Economic Outlook
Tsigaris, Panagiotis; Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.; … - 2023
For about three decades, the Japanese economy suffered a prolonged phase of economic stagnation but may have started, in late 2019, to emerge from this state with the implementation of Abenomics in late 2012 or early 2013. Abenomics consisted of “three arrows”, namely aggressive monetary...
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Constructing Quantiles via Forecast Errors : Theory and Empirical Evidence
Chen, Zhi; Zhao, Long - 2023
Probabilistic forecasts such as quantiles are essential inputs to decision-making under uncertainty. The most common type of forecasts often comes in the form of point forecasts, and it is therefore necessary for the decision maker to construct uncertainty measures around the obtained point...
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35 Years International Journal of Forecasting : A Note
Andrikopoulos, Andreas; Daniolou, Niki Anna - 2023
This paper provides a bibliometric account of the International Journal of Forecasting across the Journal’s first 35 years. We identify publication patterns, namely the volume of published research, co-authorship, internationalization, prolific authors, institutions, and countries. We also...
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Forecasting Singapore's economy statistical learning and factor models
Foo, Benedict; Koh, Deng Yao; Tan, Juan Pang; Wang, Wenjie - In: The Singapore economic review 68 (2023) 2, pp. 319-353
We evaluate the performance of the penalized vector autoregression (VAR), diffusion index (DI), and regression tree-based ensemble learning models to forecast Singapore's macroeconomy using high-dimensional data. Our dataset consists of 220 monthly time series that capture the economy of...
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‘Seeing’ the Future : Improving Macroeconomic Forecasts with Spatial Data Using Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks
Leslie, Jonathan - 2023
I evaluate whether incorporating sub-national trends improves macroeconomic fore-casting accuracy in a deep machine learning framework. Specifically, I adopt a computer vision setting by transforming U.S. economic data into a ‘video’ series of geographic ‘images’ and utilizing a...
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Equal Predictive Ability Tests Based on Panel Data with Applications to OECD and IMF Forecasts
Akgun, Oguzhan; Pirotte, Alain; Urga, Giovanni; Yang, … - 2023
We propose two types of equal predictive ability (EPA) tests with panels to compare the predictions made by two forecasters. The first type, namely S-statistics, focuses on the overall EPA hypothesis which states that the EPA holds on average over all panel units and over time. The second,...
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The IWH Forecasting Dashboard : from forecasts to evaluation and comparison
Heinisch, Katja; Behrens, Christoph; Döpke, Jörg; … - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle - 2023
The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and interested audiences. The database renders it...
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ROC and PRC approaches to evaluate recession forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Cheng, Yang - 2023
We have studied the relationship between Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) and Precision-Recall Curve (PRC) both analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in ROC and inverted precision in PRC are...
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German economy in Spring 2023 : economy is stabilizing but little momentum going forward
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; … - 2023
The recovery of the global economy from the Covid crisis came to an end in 2022 amid high energy prices and great uncertainty. While the energy crisis is easing, the effects of monetary policy, which was tightened rather late but then very quickly, are now increasingly weighing on growth. World...
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GDP Growth and the US Debt Sustainability
Alali, Dr Walid Y; Ellalee, Haider - 2023
After the US dollar replaced gold, the US debt became the attention worldwide, thus the demand for the US dollar continued, furthermore the extremely low interest of the dollar. This helped the US government to borrow great amounts of debt as well as kept the creditors pleased. Due to the...
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DSGE Model Forecasting : Rational Expectations vs. Adaptive Learning
Warne, Anders - 2023
This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1–2019Q4. The adaptive learning...
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Informality as an anti-measure of prosperity
Ananthakrishnan, Elakiya - 2023 - [Revised version]
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Nowcasting GDP using tone-adjusted time varying news topics : evidence from the financial press
Dijk, Dorinth van; Winter, Jasper de - 2023
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Analyzing and Forecasting Economic Crises with An Agent-Based Model of the Euro Area
Hommes, Cars H.; Poledna, Sebastian - 2023
We develop an agent-based model for the euro area that fulfils widely recommended requirements for next-generation macroeconomic models by i) incorporating financial frictions, ii) relaxing the requirement of rational expectations, and iii) including heterogeneous agents. Using macroeconomic and...
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Nowcasting economic activity using transaction payments data
Felber, Laura; Beyeler, Simon - 2023
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Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section
Chatelais, Nicolas; Chinn, Menzie David; … - 2023
Stock prices declined abruptly in the wake of the Covid-19, reflecting both the deterioration of investors’ expectations of economic activity as well as the surge in risk aversion. In the following months, however, economic activity remained sluggish while equity markets bounced back. This...
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Do Professional Forecasters' Phillips Curves Incorporate the Beliefs of Others?
Clements, Michael; Wang, Shixuan - 2023
We apply functional data analysis to survey expectations data, and show that functional principal component analysis combined with functional regression analysis is a fruitful way of capturing the effects of others' forecasts on a respondent's inflation forecasts. We estimate forward-looking...
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"Seeing" the future : improving macroeconomic forecasts with spatial data and recurrent convolutional neural networks
Leslie, Jonathan - 2023
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CDS Risk Premia Forecasting with Multi-Featured Deep Rnns : An Application on Br[I]Cs Countries
Kutuk, Yasin - 2023
This study tries to predict as accurately as possible CDS risk premia for BRICS countries by utilizing state-of-the-art recurrent neural network architectures. These are ELMAN, NARX, GRU, and LSTM RNNs in the time series setting, taking into account both local and global features. The predictive...
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Centering on economic construction to stabilize general socioeconomic conditions while fully promoting economic recovery : outlook, policy simulations, and reform implementation :...
Huang, Kevin X. D.; Tian, Guoqiang; Wang, Xiaowen - In: International studies of economics 18 (2023) 1, pp. 2-20
The Chinese economy upheld a frail recovery in 2022 under the triple superposition of contraction of demand, disruption in supply, and weakening expectations, aggravated by unanticipated adverse shocks in the midst of global turmoil. Over the year, rising income uncertainty set off by the...
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Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty
Clements, Michael P.; Galvão, Ana Beatriz C. - In: Journal of applied econometrics 38 (2023) 2, pp. 164-185
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The D-model for GDP nowcasting
Degiannakis, Stavros - 2023
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Inflation : an einem Strang ziehen!
Wollmershäuser, Timo - In: Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 103 (2023) 2, pp. 77
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NRW im Krisenwinter 22/23 : Stellungnahme zur Anhörung Ausschuss für Wirtschaft, Industrie, Klimaschutz und Energie des nordrhein-westfälischen Landtags
Bardt, Hubertus - 2023 - Stand: Januar 2023
Nordrhein-Westfalen ist wie Gesamtdeutschland in einer wirtschaftlichen Krisensituation. Schon im ersten Halbjahr 2022 war das Wirtschaftswachstum leicht unter dem Bundestrend, ähnlich zur Situation der anderen großen Flächenländer. Die Einschätzungen der Unternehmen sind für das Jahr 2023...
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Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada : 2023 assessment
Champagne, Julien; Haizler, Christopher; Matveev, Dmitry; … - 2023 - Last updated: May 11, 2023
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Internationale Konjunkturprognose und konjunkturelle Szenarien für die Jahre ... ; 2022/2027
Drygalla, Andrej; Holtemöller, Oliver; Lindner, Axel - 2023
In der vorliegenden Studie werden zunächst die weltweiten konjunkturellen Aussichten für das Ende des Jahres 2022 und für die Jahre 2023 bis 2027 dargestellt. Dabei wird folgender Länderkreis betrachtet: Deutschland, Frankreich, Griechenland, Großbritannien, Irland, Italien, Niederlande,...
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Will the last be the first? : ranking German macroeconomic forecasters based on different criteria
Köhler, Tim; Döpke, Jörg - In: Empirical economics : a quarterly journal of the … 64 (2023) 2, pp. 797-832
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Financial and economic uncertainties and their effects on the economy
Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Sögner, Leopold - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 50 (2023) 2, pp. 481-521
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Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
Gatti, Roberta - 2023
This paper examines the role of a country's data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors-the difference between forecasted and realized...
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Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2023 : The Invisible Toll of COVID-19 on Learning
World Bank Group - 2023
Commodity windfalls and private consumption have sustained Indonesia's growth despite a difficult global environment, but signs of normalizing domestic demand are emerging. Inflation is easing at a faster pace than markets anticipated. Indonesia's external vulnerabilities remain moderate. The...
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Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries
Cronin, David; McQuinn, Kieran - 2023
Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the "six pack" rules applied. We find debt...
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Which one predicts better? : comparing different GDP nowcasting methods using Brazilian data
Rossi Júnior, José Luiz - 2023
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Sparse warcasting
Constantinescu, Mihnea - 2023
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Greek GDP forecasting using Bayesian multivariate models
Bragoudakis, Zacharias; Krompas, Ioannis - 2023
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Bayesian VARs of the U.S. economy before and during the pandemic
Sznajderska, Anna; Haug, Alfred Albert - In: Eurasian economic review : a journal in applied … 13 (2023) 2, pp. 211-236
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Scenarios for future global growth to 2050
Kenny, Charles; Gehan, Zack - 2023
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When fiscal discipline meets macroeconomic stability : the euro-stability bond
Greco, Luciano; Raggi, Davide - 2023
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Forecasting global temperatures by exploiting cointegration with radiative forcing
Benati, Luca - 2023
I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end of the XXI century by exploiting their cointegration with the Joint Radiative Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario, the most favorable median forecast predicts the land...
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Quantifying macroeconomic uncertainty in Norway
Bowe, Frida; Meyer, Sara Skjeggestad; Robstad, Ørjan - 2023
This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...
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Enhancing the quarterly projection model
Pirozhkova, Ekaterina; Rakgalakane, Jeffrey; Soobyah, … - 2023
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Shadow-rate VARs
Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2023
VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding constraints, like the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. We extend the VAR framework by modeling interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow-rate process,...
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The direct and indirect impacts of the war on inflation : in-depth analysis requested by the ECON committee
Blot, Christophe; Creel, Jérôme; Geerolf, François - Europäisches Parlament / Referat Kontrolle der … - 2023
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European economic forecast ; 2023, Spring
2023
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