Bürgi, Constantin; Deng, Wanying; Whelan, Karl - 2026 - Original version: September 2025, this version: January 2026
Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi's contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets...